Kimberly Daniels, a member of our Emerging Fellows program inspects the consequences of Eurasia’s Heartland in her tenth blog post. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.

The question of whether world power will pivot from the West towards Eurasia’s Heartland in 2050 opens up a range of different future possibilities for understanding change in the geopolitical environment. Four such possibilities explored relationships mainly between the U.S., Russia, and China and the impacts of their foreign-policy approaches as responses to or driving forces of change. Typed as continuation, collapse, new equilibrium, and transformation scenarios, they inspire headlines that highlight the state of world power in the context of the East-West dichotomy. These headlines from the future indicate fundamental implications concerning the Heartland. Likewise, the scenarios underscore strategic issues and opportunities for the U.S., Russia, and China.

“A slow power shift from the West to the Heartland” is the 2050 headline for a continuation scenario characterized by unipolarity and a territorial approach to Heartland power. A future marked by the same historical geopolitics between the U.S., Russia, and China, it suggests that China and Russia will be joint pivot powers of Heartland power. A strategic issue for the U.S. is whether she will continue ineffective efforts of trying to contain Russia and China. A strategic issue for Russia is whether she will continue to restore her dominance in ways that amplify conflicts among rather than unite former Soviet States. A strategic opportunity for China involves the continuation of a multifaceted foreign-policy approach for extending her global influential reach.

“A power shift from the West to the Heartland” is the 2050 headline for a collapse scenario characterized by unipolarity and a commercialized approach to Heartland power. A future driven by geo-economic commerce, it carries the implication of an expanded civilizational China as the Heartland pivot power. A strategic issue for the U.S. and Russia is whether they will decline due to implosion. A strategic opportunity for both is a 22nd-century geoeconomic foreign-policy approach to compete with China. A strategic issue for China is whether she will continue down the path of a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that could harm more than help the Heartland.

“Distributed power between the West and the East” is the 2050 headline for a new equilibrium scenario characterized by multipolarity and a commercialized approach to Heartland power. A future driven by geo-technological warfare, the implication it suggests is that Central Asia will be the Heartland pivot power. A strategic opportunity for the U.S. is to support continental Africa as a significant commercial powerhouse in Afro-Eurasia. A strategic issue for Russia is whether her assertive foreign-policy approach may one day be turned against her. The strategic opportunity for China involves connecting the BRI with India and Japan’s Asia-Africa Growth Corridor.

“A power shift from the West to the Heartland” is the 2050 headline for a transformation scenario characterized by multipolarity and a territorial approach to Heartland power. A future driven by geo-cultural identity, the implication it singles out is that of distributed Heartland power. A strategic issue for the U.S. is whether she will maintain or change her involvement in the security, development, and prosperity of Central Asia. A strategic opportunity for Russia could involve playing a more significant role in shaping the international world order. A strategic issue for China is whether she will accept sharing the superpower stage with the U.S. and Russia.

In three of the four headlines from 2050, power shifts from the West to the Heartland. The other headline implies that the balance of world power is distributed between the West and the East. While the implications and strategic issues and opportunities are not exhaustive, they reflect those that are most relevant with respect to a world power pivot.

© Kimberly “Kay” Daniels 2020