Kimberly Daniels, a member of our Emerging Fellows program envisions an equilibrium scenario within Eurasia's Heartland alternative futures through her eighth blog post. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.

A new equilibrium scenario could play out as a future in which geopolitical control in Eurasia's Heartland in 2050 among the U.S., Russia, and China is proportional to their alignment with pivotal Afro-Eurasian powers. In this alternative future, Continental Africa and Central Asia emerge as competing forces with enough economic brawn to disrupt the continuation of a unipolar world system. Along with India and Japan's foreign policy shifts, they bring about a redistribution of power that has kept the three civilizational states from dominating the Heartland. Characterized by a commercialized approach to Heartland and Afro-Eurasian power and a multipolar world order catalyzed by technological change, this scenario also considers geo-technological warfare as a change driver.

By 2050 in this scenario, India, Japan, and Africa have put the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) into operation in response to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Eurasia's Heartland. Supported by Western Europe, parts of Eastern Europe, North America, much of Central and South America, and Australia, the AAGC and the Indo-African alliance has been key to Africa's economic rise. High-speed rail systems, Internet of Things (IoT) connected air travel, and joint militarized sea transport make it possible. AAGC success is attributable to foreign policy shifts by India and Japan and partnerships with Africa and Central Asia, enabling them to encroach on China's trade aspirations in Afro-Eurasia.

Free from colonial interference and economic subjugation but closely aligned, in foreign policy, with India, Japan, and the U.S., continental Africa is united. Having made the move to a singular digital currency backed by a robust cryptocurrency market, Africa is now a globally-competitive regional power. Her commercial economy, supported by artificial intelligence (AI) and rapid smartphone penetration elevated her as a pivotal international player. Despite clusters of religiopolitical extremism, Africa emerged as a pivotal disruptor to a US, Russian, or Chinese unipolar power position in the Heartland.

Allied with the U.S., India, and Japan; and through reimagined commerce and industry, as well as the freedom to reinvest BRI trade revenues into her economy, Central Asia grew in global competitiveness. No longer indebted to China and irrespective of US alignment motives of containing China's commercialized Heartland domination, Central Asia is a liberalized, self-governing region. She chose regional sovereignty with Western allies over the pull to a resuscitated Soviet regime.

As the primary supplier of cutting-edge green mining and clean-energy resources, U.S.-backed Kazakhstan leads Central Asia. India-aligned Uzbekistan engages her military, intelligence, and counter-terror capabilities to protect the region against most threats. Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, mutually aligned with the U.S., India, and Japan, are market leaders in augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) tourism. Central Asia, an annoyance to Russia, also emerged as a pivotal disruptor to US, Russian, and Chinese unipolar power positioning in the Heartland.

As the US, Russia, and China navigate a multipolar world order marked by technological change, commercialization, and new regional competitors shaping Heartland power, they drive an environment of geo-technological warfare. The US preemptively protects her Afro-Eurasian interests through sabotages of critical Russian and Chinese infrastructure. In response, she incurs New Cold War assaults from Russia, China, and Iran. Suspected hacks by China of Africa's IoT and AI systems and profit-making linked to surveillance capitalism incites the US and India to launch discrediting campaigns against China.

Russia, aligned with the Caucasus, Mongolia, and multiple Eastern European countries, is often blamed for cyberattacks against Central Asia's BRI and AR/VR infrastructure. Such accusations provoke reciprocal attacks from the US and China and intensified conflict with a Western-allied Turkey. For the three civilization states, alignment with pivotal Afro-Eurasia powers for proportional geopolitical control has also meant protecting them against geo-technological threats.

In this 2050 new equilibrium scenario, India, Japan, Africa, and Central Asia have brought about a multipolar world system resulting in redistributed Afro-Eurasian power. While they have prevented the US, Russia, and China from dominating the Heartland, they accept the three's extended power in support of commercial-oriented, tech-based foreign-policy agendas. Aligning with these pivotal Afro-Eurasian powers has given the US, Russia, and China proportional control in the Heartland and incentives for initiating or responding to geo-technological warfare tactics to protect their interests. One other alternative future to US, Russian, and Chinese Heartland geopolitics is depicted in a transformation scenario.

© Kimberly "Kay" Daniels 2020