Travis Kupp, a member of our Emerging Fellows program checks the impact of resource scarcity on Asian futures through his ninth blog post. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members.

Contrary to some popular notions about “abundance,” no resource is infinite. Over the last few decades, Asia’s demand for natural, human, and capital resources has grown tremendously as the process of globalization has helped restore the region to a place of prominence in the world economy. However, this marked upward trend is likely unsustainable. As Asian markets have developed, the continent has made slow strides toward regionalism. It is possible that stronger cooperation on issues of governance and security could mitigate the protectionist reaction that would naturally occur when the adverse effects of scarcity begin to materialize. The extent to which these relationships make Asia able to weather coming resource pressures will determine whether the region is able to continue cohering in decades to come.

Resources are not evenly distributed within Asian states. Oil reserves in Western Asia are an easily exportable source of energy that remain vital to continued economic growth on the continent. Meanwhile, China and India, home to roughly a third of the global population, are increasingly thirsty for energy as outsourced manufacturing and information technology services have lifted many into a higher standard of living. Along with this increased demand for energy, growing prosperity has also led to more consumption of resource-intensive goods, including automobiles, electronics, and animal protein. Critically, these processes also require reliable access to fresh water, one of the most challenging resources to secure in light of pollution from industry and agriculture, climate change dynamics, and the cross-border nature of many waterways.

In a future where regional organizations like ASEAN and the SCO have led to a more unified Asia, it is possible that resource scarcity may be overcome. If a regionally integrated Asian market similar to the EU is created, the combined leverage in dealings with other regions would be formidable. With a fully realized Belt and Road Initiative reaching into Africa, the resources of another continent would also be available, at least to China. Enforcement of covenants across such a vast geography would rely on a strong security framework that would impose a form of regional stability likely somewhat draconian toward Central Asian states. Unity in this resource-scarce future of Asia would thus look less like the liberal ideal pursued throughout the 20th century but would at least hold the continent in equilibrium.

Alternatively, the project of Asian unity could fall apart if tensions over resources turn into flashpoints. Like the Chinese effort to circumvent its reliance on energy imports passing through the Strait of Malacca, India could be faced with a similar dilemma over water access. Unlike oil and gas, water is not so easily extracted and transported. Technological solutions like desalination will not be sufficient. India and other nations in similar circumstances will be left with little choice but to attempt to take control of this resource by force. A future in which this precedent is established is also one in which no territorial dispute will have the option of being left unresolved.

A more unified Asia may be its best hope to withstanding the impacts of resource scarcity. However, this will depend upon the ability of the continent to draw on resources from other parts of the world, enforce regional stability, and find creative ways to access fresh water. Overcoming these challenges will necessitate some form of regional cooperation beyond what is currently in place today. Thus, it is possible that as resources become scarce a unified Asia may become the most desirable path forward despite traditional reservations in the self-interest of individual states.

© Travis Kupp 2020