Monday, August 10, 2026
Juniper Research forecasts more than 50% growth in global chargeback requests as consumer behavior shifts, raising new questions about who owns the subscriber relationship when billing issues move outside the merchant’s own channels.
Global chargeback requests are projected to reach 616 million by 2031, according to new research from Juniper Research.
Michael Greenwood, Principal Analyst at Juniper Research, told Subscription Insider® that the comparable 2026 figure is 406 million. That represents growth of more than 50% over five years.
Juniper points to changing consumer behavior as one factor behind the increase. Consumers are becoming more familiar with the chargeback process, and some are going directly to their card issuer rather than first trying to resolve a billing, cancellation or refund problem with the merchant.
For subscription businesses, that touches some very familiar trouble spots: auto-renewals, forgotten subscriptions, cancellation timing and charges customers don’t recognize.
Greenwood told Subscription Insider® that going directly to the issuer is one of the behavioral changes Juniper is seeing.
Juniper does not have data showing that this behavior is directly causing the projected growth in chargebacks. Greenwood said its view of rising consumer awareness is based on analyst interpretation of public market trends and discussions with vendors.
Legitimate Consumers Are Part of the Growth
Juniper forecasts that 32.4% of chargeback growth will come from legitimate consumers, Greenwood told Subscription Insider®. The figure excludes low-value write-offs that may or may not have involved fraud.
Friendly fraud is another part of the picture.
Friendly fraud occurs when a consumer disputes a legitimate transaction through their bank. It can happen when someone forgets a purchase, does not recognize the name on a statement, changes their mind about a service, or knowingly disputes a valid charge to avoid paying.
Juniper expects friendly fraud to grow from 22% of global chargebacks in 2026 to 28% by 2031.
Its research also points to billing-descriptor confusion. If the name on a card statement does not match the brand a customer remembers, a legitimate charge can be mistaken for fraud.
For subscription operators, these situations can look similar once the dispute arrives, even though the reasons behind them are very different.
Why Subscription Businesses Should Pay Attention
Juniper does not break subscription businesses into a separate chargeback category, so its research does not show that subscription merchants account for a disproportionate share of global disputes.
Greenwood did tell Subscription Insider that digital-service providers face higher chargeback rates than other businesses. Many of those companies use subscription models.
Juniper also sees subscription-specific behavior behind some disputes.
“We do see consumers turning to chargebacks for subscriptions when they fail to cancel a subscription before an auto renewal,." Greenwood told Subscription Insider®.
He also said consumers are more likely to misidentify subscription charges.
The Merchant Risk Council reports that more than 32% of merchants surveyed consider subscription billing a significant chargeback risk factor.
The same article reports that more than one-quarter of recurring-payment merchants send no pre-billing reminder, while another 17% notify customers only after the charge.
For subscription businesses, that creates a clear point of exposure. A surprise renewal or an unfamiliar charge can become a bank dispute before the merchant has a chance to talk with the subscriber.
Subscribers Have More Ways to Manage Recurring Payments
Card networks are also giving consumers more ways to view and manage recurring charges.
Visa launched an enhanced subscription-management service this year that gives cardholders more information about recurring payments and more control over them. Visa said greater subscription visibility can help reduce unwanted charges, disputes and chargebacks.
Juniper expects higher chargeback volumes to increase demand for automated chargeback-management tools as manual processes become harder to manage at scale.
Subscribers now have more ways to understand, manage and challenge recurring payments without going directly to the subscription company.
INSIDER TAKE
For subscription operators, the 616 million forecast raises a broader issue: more of the subscriber relationship is happening outside the company’s own channels.
Subscribers increasingly have options beyond a company’s website, app or customer-service team. Banks and card networks can give them more visibility into recurring payments. If a charge is confusing or unwanted, the issuer may also become the first place they go for help.
That raises a bigger question for subscription businesses:
Who owns the subscriber relationship when more of that relationship is being managed outside the subscription company itself?
And perhaps the more important question:
As subscribers gain more ways to manage their subscriptions elsewhere, how do subscription companies remain the place customers want to turn first?
Sources
Related Member Resources
As card networks give subscribers more ways to manage recurring payments, subscription operators need to understand how Visa and Mastercard are changing the experience, along with the growing risks around chargebacks and friendly fraud.
About Subscription Insider®
Subscription Insider helps executives make better decisions across the business of subscriptions. Decisions involving growth, pricing, retention, billing, compliance, and customer experience are connected, but they rarely sit within one department. Since 2009, Subscription Insider has combined independent reporting and analysis, real operating experience, and practical guidance to help leaders see what’s changing, understand what it means for their businesses, and decide what to do next. Subscription Insider serves executives leading subscription, membership, and recurring revenue businesses. Learn more at SubscriptionInsider.com.