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COVID 19 and Real Economy
From:
Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert
Madison , WI
Saturday, April 4, 2020

 

Overall

Circumstances make certain great events more likely in certain periods of time.  Health and making a livelihood are basic to all human life in the modern world, and they have always been related to each other.  The pandemic crisis has made this very self-evident.  Even the timing of major wars, major pandemics, and major economic changes are cyclic in nature and cyclic with natural changes.

Economic Connection

South Korea had the first case of coronavirus the same January day as the United States.  But while they actively tested and isolated, Trump used wishful thinking to downplay the risks for two months, thinking he was protecting the economy when in fact he was endangering the economy.  While the Koreans used the World Health Organization test, the president's America First economic strategy failed to develop a US test for crucial lost weeks.  Then in empire-like classic control orientation, the Center for Disease Control would not let the private sector and states use alternate tests extensively.  Then with the health care system facing overload, the president refused to compel production by the private sector and refused to do national purchasing, instead leaving it up to the states.  This led to bidding up the cost as 50 states and even the federal FEMA each outbid each other creating windfall profits for the business sector.  A grifter himself, the president was comfortable with this taking advantage by his political allies.  This is like the Republican approach of letting the drug companies charge much more in America than in other countries.  This lets greed win out over need, creating confusion as some states can't compete.  Trump favors socialism for businesses, not for employees.  Trump then blames state and local governments for lack of planning for this unplanned pandemic, rather than helping those businesses and their employees like every other country in the developed world.

Long Cycle Connection

The 54-year natural economic and war cycle creates a certain atmosphere of tensions in certain periods as the cycle evolves over time.  Thus civil rights peak events happen around the lessor war at the economic growth rate peak of the cycle. Then as the growth phase ends around maximum wealth accumulation at the end of the high growth period, we see major wars and pandemic peaks.  Thus the Spanish flu kills tens of millions in the 1918 World War period, starting in Kansas and spread to Europe by American troops sent over there to fight the war.  Then the Hong Kong flu in 1968 is carried to the United States by troops returning from the Vietnam War.  There is not a real great war occurring now in 2020 but the trade war started in 2019 has weakened China to the point of originating the COVID 19 pandemic currently ravaging the world.  Globalization and plane travel have made easy transmission of this disease worldwide affecting all major trading countries.

Smoking Connection

Underlying physical weaknesses are leading to death in five percent of pandemic cases worldwide.  One US nurse admits that only 20% of those on respirators ever get off them. US death rate is 2.4%. Emphysema, Asthma, Diabetes, immune compromised, etc. are the reasons often given, but smoking seems to be a major cause, especially for younger deaths.  Vaping scars the lungs of the young, leaving them especially vulnerable to a disease known to do the same.  Italians smoke a lot and look at that disaster.

War Connection

Wars develop in periods of political and economic stress.  While wars usually separate countries, a common enemy can bring nations together.  Global warming and the current pandemic have done the latter.  The Defense Production Act of 1950 Korean War era is finally now being used to fight the pandemic as Trump tries to claim wartime presidency to aid in his 2020 reelection.  Carnage in the hospitals resembles the carnage of the battlefield in war.  Just as war is a life and death issue, so too is the pandemic.  Just as empire can lead to decline, the result does not have to be war, a wiser hegemon can pursue global unity instead with all that power.  The military organization can contribute to field hospitals and supplies for the pandemic fight

Red States At Peril

On the March 31st Rachel Maddow Show it was reported that the following mostly deep red states had no statewide stay-at-home order:  Nevada, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Arkansas.  Only Nevada is a swing state carried by Hillary Clinton, the rest are solid Trump states.  Further she reported the following states had partial stay at home orders:  Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming.  These are also deeply red Trump states except for the two swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania, with Texas and Georgia also moving in the swing state direction in 2018.  All these 17 states will likely see explosive growth in COVID 19 cases and deaths as their medical care is overloaded.  These seventeen states include a majority of seven of the eleven former Confederate States of America states and former border slave state Missouri.  Trump may have unwittingly targeted his own followers.  April 1 the governors of Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi relented and finally imposed restrictions to enhance social distancing.

Malignant Narcissism

President Trump has been evaluated to be a malignant narcissistic personality by psychologist friends of Al Franken.  The Donald believes he can lie (16,000 in first three years) and gaslight his way through any situation, he is reactive daily and never plans things out well, thinking the future will take care of itself, dominating the news and leaving his opponent out of the debate.  He punishes his enemies and rewards his friends continuously as his personal needs are paramount over everything else.  He counts on creating his own alternate reality.  True reality will not go away, despite the best of his ability to create illusions. Trump acts in crazy ways like the Roman emperor Caligula, the one emperor considered crazy, hence this odd behavior may be a result of advanced stages of empire decline, the social decay that accompanies the economic stagnation that results from large portions of an economy devoted to military control of the world around them instead of producing economic goods for the general population.

Extremism

The evolutionary pattern of a society entering a deep state of empire completely suggests that political extremism is a long-term result.  Eisenhower discovered to his dismay that a large peacetime army drove military location politics to push for more military regardless of the nationwide need.  This process eventually evolved into a partisan choice, and the one party blindly interested in economic growth regardless of consequences became identified with the military budget so much that the mutual cooptation of military spending took hold of congress and the presidency.  Even the party primarily interested in other than military spending had their presidential candidates coopted by the need to carry at least some of the high military spending states to win the presidency.  The power of allocating the military budget then so dominated the political process that options narrowed, and political choices became more extreme.  From Reagan to Trump as more democratic protections were removed, extremism kept growing until Trump came along and used extremism to achieve office.  Now America is highly polarized.

Summary

Blind loyalty to serving one half of the political spectrum at the expense of the other half helped elect Trump, the most extreme president in modern times, jeopardizing the balanced approach to governance generally followed by presidents since George Washington.  Washington voluntarily turned down kingship and set the pattern of presidents limiting themselves to two four-year terms and avoiding foreign entanglements.  Now America has the standing army Washington feared and avoided and leads a worldwide financial and military empire, seemingly losing our way.  Once we opposed empire to gain our independence, now we impose the Washington Consensus worldwide.

Booklet Included in Peace Economics Video:

https://www.academia.edu/4108656/BOOKLET_for_Peace_Economics_11_charts_24p._2011

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, April 4), "COVID 19 and Real Economy" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/COVID-19-and-Real-Economy,2020229811.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as their following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 249 (projected).

News Media Interview Contact
Name: Dr. Robert W. Reuschlein
Title: Economics Professor
Group: Real Economy Institute
Dateline: Madison, WI United States
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