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Why World Chaos Comes Now
Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert
Madison, WI
Friday, January 19, 2024



            Most solar radiation that hits the surface of Earth evaporates water.  Because water over land is sporadic compared to the ocean, land warms up faster than ocean creating an energy imbalance.  That causes a great 54-year world temperature cycle.  The solution to all such differential equations is sinusoidal.  The effects on mankind of this cycle are profound in terms of economics and politics, ultimately leading to the chaotic world we have today.  The next five sections explain these phenomena. 

Solar Radiation 1

            The planet's continental lands warm up three times as fast as the oceans do.  Why?  Water is so easily available and so volatile that 67% of solar radiation (73% over land by my own original estimate) promptly vaporizes any water it hits.  We are the water planet, with oceans covering 71% of the earth's surface, and water everywhere over land.  Humans are 69% water and plants are 90% water, with ponds streams lakes rivers and morning dew everywhere.  Steven Schneider's book "Climate and Life" 1983 stated that evaporation is 85% overall and 90% over ocean.

Energy Balance 2

            Water vapor consumes most solar radiation, with the residual warming the planet.  Obviously, this leads to much higher warming over land than over water.  This obviously creates a growing energy imbalance over time.  Why has this been ignored by researchers up until me is probably because the long-term resolution of the fifty-four-year cycle is ignored in favor of shorter-term analysis.  Anti-cycle prejudice is everywhere among researchers.  This academic prejudice is despite many obvious cycles especially daily, seasonally, ice ages.  Examples include sunrise and sunset times, the tides, seasonal changes.

Long Cycle Research 3

            Western researchers have long been skeptical about the 1926 book of Lenin's Finance Minister Nicolai Kondratiev, who Stalin murdered in 1938, stopping work on five new books.  But the Kondratiev Wave is generally considered economic research, ignoring extensive weather data and Goldstein (1987) on European Wars.  The trick is to explain how the climate cycle creates the economic cycle and those two cycles create the major war cycle.  Those connections took a lot of thinking and testing to arrive at.

Connection 4

            How the climate cycle leads to the economic cycle is because high heat hurts worker productivity.  One study shows workers lose 35% of their productivity at 95 degrees Fahrenheit.  Many product producing industries suffer from high heat conditions in factories, construction, mining, and agriculture, the same basic industries that move the economy forward, including the crucial capital investment industries.  Thus the 27-year warming part of the cycle reduces economic growth and the 27-year cooling cycle boosts economic growth.  Together they make the 54-year cycle.

            Because of rising tensions from increasing national economic disparities during the high growth phase of the long-term economy, medium size wars tend to occur halfway through the growth phase, and major wars tend to occur about three years after the end of the growth phase.  The end of the growth phase has both maximized national economic differences creating tensions and maximized capital accumulation creating an exaggerated sense of power.  Wars then tend to confirm who is top dog and who is not.  Leaders seek wars to make them great historical figures.

            The third connection is directly between climate change and wars.  A two- or three-year cooling period leads into six of the seven major wars between 1860 and 1970.  Statistically, this is clear cut, why is less clear cut.  Volcanoes with enough Sulfur content cause two or three cooling years in a row and polar vortexes are sometimes indicative.  One mass murderer attacked during the coldest days of a period.  We have the phrase cold blooded murder.  Atmospherics can contribute to war.

Turbulence 5

            The rising trends of our times include linearly rising anxiety since World War Two (linear not cyclical).  The pandemic and rising fascism around the world may be cyclical, reminiscent of two cycles ago, 108 years ago.  The Spanish Flu started in 1917 and Covid in 2019, 102 years apart and The Italian Fascist Party started in 1922, 102 years ago this year.  The rise of China has been a persistent problem for decades and has led to the recent militarism and threats to Taiwan.  The war in Ukraine is 108 years after World War One (1914-2022).  The war in Israel is 56 years after the Six Day War (1967-2023) and 50 years after the Yom Kipper War (1973-2023).  The current economic growth period was 1994-2021.  The two prior economic growth periods were 1886-1913 before the World War and 1940-1967 during the Cold War (Korea 1950 and Vietnam 1965).   The coldest February of the twentieth century was February 2004 when the Russian Japanese War started and the coldest Spring of the twentieth century was the three-month period March April May 1917 with America declaring war in April 2017.  All these combined pressures and 1200 years of modern European (500 years) American (200 years) and ancient Rome wars (500 years) indicate that 2024 is the average war year projection (17 wars).  But 6 of those 17 major wars project to the 2025 modal (most frequent) year.

List of 56 Cycle Events:


Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2024, January 19), "Why World Chaos Comes Now" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Why-World-Chaos-Comes-Now,2024301864.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2024 with growing interest from the deciding Norwegians.  A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website; daily "hard looks" per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200 to 322 to 346 to 349 by the October 6th, 2023 Nobel Peace Prize announcement time.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com 

Info: www.realeconomy.com

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