The Election

This 2020 is not like 2016, and unlikely to end the same when the right wing scared and bullied Comey into violating FBI rules that prevented releasing investigation information within 40 days of an election.  The main difference between then and now is the degree of indecision of the voters.  Voters were 50% open to change in 2016 about five weeks out and only 5% in 2020.  The rest is turnout, with a much more aroused blue base now.  Undecided voters are rare, and polls are much more stable now.  Then Russian stolen emails changed the debate significantly, now they are active creating narratives like Biden feebleness in coordination with Trump that few believe this time.  The Republican voters then 46% believed the pizza-gate sex ring charge.  Then black voters in the targeted upper Midwest states of MN, WI, MI, PA were jointly discouraged from voting by Russian measures included same postings sent out at exactly the same time by 4000 Russian Facebook accounts as 20,000 Trump allied accounts (UW Madison researcher results).  The real story will be the Senate landslide with many close races likely to slide Biden's way.  In 2016 there were no split ticket states, each went the same way for President and Senate.

Coronavirus

Republican run red states Texas and Florida have double the cases (per capita) of Democratic run New York and California with mask wearing, shutdowns, and crowds tolerated (bars, etc.) the main differences.  Kemp who stole the governorship from Stacy Abrams in Georgia is trying to suppress the Atlanta mayor's mask order.  The Republican governor of South Dakota allowed the 250,000 Sturgis motorcycle rally to create a super-spreader event this summer that caused spikes in all the neighboring states two weeks later. In my home state of Wisconsin, the Green Bay, Appleton-Oshkosh, and Fond Du Lac metro areas of the Republican leaning Fox River valley are all in the top four metro areas nationwide, with widespread lack of masks and crowding into bars (beer and cheese state, right?).  Family and friend gatherings are the worst spreader events as school kids mix and then come home.

Economics                                                                                                   

The Trump job and growth statistics are lower in his first three years than Obamas last three years by over a million jobs, and the trade war with China was lost with 300 manufacturing jobs lost and many farmers going bankrupt. In Youngstown, Ohio the Chevrolet Cruz factory was shut down without a whimper from the President.  The stock market was down before the 2016 election over uncertainty which presidential policies would win.  The decision let the stock market rebound but that would have happened either way the election went.  The tax cut boosted manufacturing jobs in 2018, then the trade war and military buildup caused a manufacturing recession in 2019.  The Pandemic shutdown hurt the European countries more than America, but at a cost of five-fold increase in pandemic deaths per capita compared to the leader of the free world Angie Merkel's Germany, who's economic growth was reduced by the 60% military buildup (from Europe low 1.0% GDP up to 1.6%) to come up to NATO standards.  Trump has clearly abdicated American leadership in the world, preferring dictators to democracies.

Recession

In 2009 the unemployment was across the board, whether high or low income.  Today, the upper income half of jobs had no increase in unemployment while the lower income half of jobs had soaring unemployment like ten years ago.

Perhaps that's why Republicans are unwilling to extend relief payments.  Trump and Mitch insist on not funding cities and states, calling it a blue state bailout.  Ironically, that means they want to "defund the police" and other first responders who will have to be laid off.  Ironically, they will hurt red states and governors more as the states without mask orders and responsible social distancing "open economies" are spiking the worst.  I am sorry Republicans, blue states are the economic engines of America, as are cities, and 85% of Americans live in metropolitan areas.  Attacking Democratic run cities is a very foolish way to help the economy.  Divide and conquer is fine for war but terrible for peace.

Nobel Peace Prize

The Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to government leaders and large organizations who are trying to end wars or mitigate the effects of war.  No imagination about trying to prevent wars.  No thinking outside the box since the award to Al Gore for his fight against global warming.  No award to economic proof that military spending is the prime diversion away from economic growth driven by manufacturing to meet civilian needs.  My science once recognized will inspire good leaders to minimize that diversion, minimize military budgets, to keep their economies strong and invader resistant.  The wise will reduce armies to both keep a nation economically strong and relevant and keep the small percent of military ever growing and modernizing with the power of the high growth low military economy.  Ignoring the new science of peace economics will lead to "strongman" nations losing power and becoming irrelevant, just as the Norwegian Nobel Committee is making themselves irrelevant with band-aids against war rather than a real game changer reversing the logic of military buildups.  The part of Nobel's will that calls for "reduction of armies" is ignored in favor of short-term palliatives rather than incentivizing strategic vision that will increasingly lead to a reverse arms race for the foreseeable future.  The September 19, 2019 visit to look at my place by a well-dressed European looking person in a blue Prius, and recent Oslo visit(s) to her website of one my nominators had us at the Real Economy Institute excited and then disappointed once again.  I see myself as more of an engineer and designer than a politician or businessman.  That is a perspective lacking in the very political Norwegians, who are not scientists.  Can they break free of their narrow perspectives to consider merit and army reduction rather than our small institutional size and my white American male status?  Can they award mathematical achievement in pursuit of peace rather than political achievement?  Science changes things forever, not just one war at a time. 

Reuschlein Game Changer Economic Engineering Model:

https://www.academia.edu/5558307/ACCURATE_ECONOMICS_MODEL_US_18ppt_3p_2014

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, October 17), "What We All Should Know Now" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-We-All-Should-Know-Now,2020237362.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an consistently growing pattern that shows up on my website as following my work, daily hard looks per year have gone from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com