Sunday, January 30, 2022
Title Explanation
This Project Is About establishing the authenticity of my 1986 manufacturing productivity model and 1991 natural global warming cycle. Each of these theories has striking accuracy and involves many impacts helping explain the stresses of modern society (empire) and the timing of many major events (climate).
Military Barriers
The biggest barriers are many. Widespread number phobia (90% have number phobia) is perhaps the biggest barrier. This leads to many people not understanding an engineer/accountant like me, especially historians who never have to take a math requirement in college, and at least 85% of the time avoid statistics and graphs in their papers, things I love.
The second biggest problem is the widespread belief that military spending stimulates the economy. There are no good examples of this in the modern historical record that I can see. The persistence of this belief is due to three major reasons. Military research does sometimes lead to civilian benefits, but is only 10% of the military budget, 3% of the military budget leads to civilian benefits after deducting for secrecy and military specific limitations. This 3% suggests that military spending is 97% lost economic potential if judged by research alone. Another factor is the federal deficit, which really does stimulate the economy, and counteracts the military drag on the economy during wars and buildups. My accurate 60-year model of the economy finds that the military and deficit offset each other dollar for dollar. The third belief is the most elementary one, obviously military spending stimulates a local economy as the money circulates. But this ignores the drop in manufacturing jobs in every military buildup. Taking engineers scientists and capital away from manufacturing and devoting them to power projection does not help the economy.
Climate Barriers
The Kondratiev Cycle is widely viewed as an economic 50-year cycle. Klyashtorin's 55-year cycle from Ice Core research is the best fit on the modern world temperature: the 55-year moving average fits best. My 56 events work best with 54 years. I know of no one other than myself that uses moving averages extensively. All the climate scientists I have met just give me blank stares as I explain global warming is a wave not a straight line. They all are using straight line correlations instead of recognizing the zig-zag nature of 27 years of cooling followed by 27 years of heating. Hence their projections are never very accurate. Joshua Goldstein established the fifty year war cycle in his 500-year study of modern European Wars. The controversial parts of my work are to explain how nature, economics, and war, can all be parts of the same cycle. The natural economic connection is hard to understand, unless you know industrial engineering. Climate is far more complicated than empire.
Institutional Barriers
Group projects are popular as work by individuals is sometimes looked down upon. History of invention shows individuals produce more than institutions. Institutions require applications for grants, narrowing the field and excluding ideas seen as too imaginative. Imagination by its nature is uncontrolled and unruly; "control" limits possibilities and growth. "Control" is an empire word.
Possibilities
Depending on others is limited in the academic setting. In the business and investment world all you have to do is prove your ideas work in the real economy. If the investments perform, then the world will follow what you do. The stock market is proof that your ideas are real. The math says they must be.
Economy
The American people mistake Republicans, the party of business, as the party of economic growth. Actually, the Democrats have a higher average economic growth rate than Republicans for the last century and more. Three out of four Democratic presidents have above average growth while three out of four Republican presidents have below average growth. Why? Because Republicans want tax breaks for the rich which are not optimal, because "sales" drives business growth not capital. The Democrats want the money in the hands of the middle and working class, which does drive sales and economic growth. The Republicans favor big business, a net job loser usually, instead of small business which has always been the real engine of economic growth and jobs.
Inflation
Plants shut down by Covid create supply chain inflation, but the pandemic has hurt the service economy, so the money for services gets spent on goods instead, causing inflation. Gas has soared because of the economic recovery. Gas prices lowered during the lockdowns, now they are back.
Nobel Peace Prize
The Nobel Peace Prize Committee does not seem to recognize the "reduction of armies" part of Nobel's will. My socio-economic decay finding about the "low military high growth" defense strategy chapter will force leaders to adapt an economic growth priority to best defend the nation long term. Nominations are made by associate professors and national assembly members among others by January 31st midnight UTC. Please nominate me here:
https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-peace-prize/nomination/nomination-form
Six summary pages from new book:
https://www.academia.edu/69983378/Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_Empire_and_Climate_Discoveries_Change_Everything
New Book:
Weather Wealth & Wars, Empire and Climate Discoveries Change Everything!
This 400-page book was copyrighted October 29, 2021 with a price of $20 postpaid (paypal).
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2022, January 30), "What This Project Is About" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/What-This-Project-Is-About,2022266747.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2021 with accelerating interest from the deciding Norwegians. A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website; daily "hard looks" per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200 to 322 by the October 8th, 2021 Nobel Peace Prize announcement.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
Info: www.realeconomy.com