Monday, May 1, 2023
Maneuver and Firepower
This is the essence of military strategy; maneuver, firepower, and supply. "Get there first with the most soldiers" is how to succeed militarily. Though quick victory is the best way to reduce casualties in war, long costly struggles are the usual result when both sides underestimate each other.
Ukraine Wargame
Playing the Ukraine wargame, that I devised last summer, has given me much insight into the 2022-23 Ukraine war with Russia. The game is designed with a higher reinforcement rate for Ukraine thanks to NATO funding. Russia must win early, such as in the first year and a half (18 monthly turns), by taking Ukraine's three key cities, the capital Kiev, the port Odessa, and the route to the West through the once Polish city Lviv. Capturing Kiev by October (9th move) is the usual way to a Russian win, November is usually too late. In one game Ukraine lost Kiev in November but re-took it a few turns later to go on to win. A Ukraine win usually takes about two years. But both sides will become thin and precarious just before lurching into one side's favor. That is exactly the current situation as both sides are running out of ammunition right now.
The American generals mistakenly expect the situation to stagnate into a quagmire, with low confidence that Ukraine can recover lost territories. Reminds me of the generals Lincoln had to deal with the first three years. The gains last year around Kharkiv in the Donbas area and the recapture of Kherson in the West clearly show Ukraine is capable.
Counteroffensive Strategy
Cities and rivers are the main defenses. Being in a city doubles the strength of defending units and locating behind a river also doubles defenders. Offensive strategy involves attacking open areas where troops do not double, then flanking rivers and surrounding cities. Bahkmut shows how stubborn the Russians are insisting on costly and stupid frontal assault and attrition.
Counteroffensive strategy should divide the Russians in two, cutting the land bridge from Mariupol to Sevastopol. They should begin by punching a hole in Russian lines South from Zaporizhia. Mariupol to Kherson represents the so-called land bridge from Crimea to Russia. Melitopol is the unmarked small city at square M24, two squares South of Zaporizhia and two squares West of Mariupol. It shows on the BBC maps as being infested with partisans, who should be mobilized to block Russian reinforcements to the breakthrough area. I would seize this city with troops sent there by helicopters to hold off Russians coming from the Donbas or Russia. I would run Bradleys and Leopards into the breech. The main forces should make a Western turn to encircle the six nuclear reactors on the Russian side of the Dnieper River and then continue to encircle Russians across the river from Kherson, cutting them off from retreat to Crimea. Done well, the Western half of the Russian army could be surrounded and destroyed over time, leaving the door to Sevastopol and Crimea wide open. The Russian fleet could be trapped and destroyed in Crimea.
Biden Age
American males die one third before 80, one third die in their eighties, one third die after their eighties. That gives Biden a 20% chance of dying in office if reelected. Without Biden's experience Ukraine could be in a world of hurt.
Ukraine Map and Game:
https://www.academia.edu/85642103/UkraineGame
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2023, May 1), "Ukraine Offensive Strategy" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Ukraine-Offensive-Strategy,2023294510.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2023 with accelerating interest from the deciding Norwegians. A consistently growing pattern shows intense interest in my work on my expertclick.com website; daily "hard looks" per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 200 to 322 to 346 by the October 7th, 2022 Nobel Peace Prize announcement time.
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
Info: www.realeconomy.com