The schism between the establishment Republicans and the Tea Party Republicans, so evident in recent weeks in the battle over the budget in the United States Senate, is a harbinger of the greater battle over the 2016 GOP presidential nomination between the two factions.
So says William S. Bike, author of
Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide to Electoral Success.
"The forces are already lining up," Bike said. "On the establishment side, you have Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. On the Tea Party side, you have Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and even Sarah Palin."
Make no mistake about it—Palin is running, Bike said.
"Just in the last few weeks, Palin was in the news regularly, offering her opinions on climate change, President Barack Obama's alleged lack of leadership, and even on a United States Marine holding an umbrella for the president," Bike noted. "She's just not seeking media attention for the fun of it. She's staying in the public eye so she can run for president."
The schism between the business-oriented Republicans and hard-right ideologue Republicans has been a part of GOP politics "since at least as far back as 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower represented the business-focused wing of the party whose members didn't really care about social issues, and Senator Robert Taft of Ohio represented Republicans who cared more about right-wing social philosophies," Bike noted.
The establishment Republicans usually win the nomination—but not always, Bike added.
"In 1964, the battle was between the right-wing ideologue Senator Barry Goldwater, and the establishment businessman, Governor Nelson Rockefeller, and Goldwater got the nomination," Bike recalled. "In 1980, George H.W. Bush was the establishment's standard bearer, but conservative Ronald Reagan ended up being the party's candidate."
A wild card in 2016 will be the effect of the Citizens United decision, which has allowed unlimited corporate funding of campaigns, Bike said.
"Will Citizens United allow the establishment to spend enough money to win the nomination for its candidate no matter how fervent and hard-working the footsoldiers of the Tea Party are?" Bike asked.
However, if the establishment agrees with Newt Gingrich, that Hillary Clinton is unbeatable if she's the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, "it could spend its money on keeping the House of Representatives and trying to take the Senate and more governorships, leaving a path for a Tea Partier to get the GOP presidential nomination," Bike said.
"The Tea Party has been saying the GOP has been losing presidential elections lately because it's been nominating establishment candidates like John McCain and Mitt Romney for president," Bike said. "If a Tea Partier gets the nomination and loses, that will turn the tables and allow the establishment to say that the GOP can't win with an ideologue."
Or, if there is a national issue that turns the electorate against the Democrats like the Iran hostage crisis did in 1980, the Republican candidate could win no matter how far right his or her politics are, Bike said.
"In any case, there doesn't seem to be another George W. Bush out there for the Republicans—a candidate who has both establishment business credentials and conservative social issues credibility," Bike concluded. "The candidate in 2016 is either going to be another establishment Republican who will disappoint the Tea Party, or an ideologue who will cause business Republicans to close their wallets."
More about political acumen can be found in
Winning Political Campaigns: A Comprehensive Guide to Electoral Success, a how-to e-book providing information on everything a candidate, campaign worker, or activist needs to know to conduct a political race.
Winning Political Campaigns was written by Bike, an award winning journalist, public relations professional, and political pundit who has appeared on many radio and television broadcasts, including CNN. See
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhZYkyRx-C4 Winning Political Campaigns is available on Smashwords at
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/149191 and Amazon.com at
http://www.amazon.com/Winning-Political-Campaigns-Comprehensive-ebook/dp/B007U7C31K/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1334443628&sr=8-2 The two previous Denali Press print editions of
Winning Political Campaigns were highly acclaimed. "From a practical, political operations standpoint, it is the best book out, yet," said reviewer Hank Landa of Political Book Reviews.
Winning Political Campaigns "provides essential tools, practical pointers, and valuable advice about running campaigns successfully," writes Fran Ulmer, former Lieutenant Governor of Alaska.
Covering everything from advertising to building alliances, proper business practices, campaign literature, candidate behavior, media, voter contact, debating, fundraising, strategy, and more,
Winning Political Campaigns is extremely thorough and detailed, yet easy to use. Real-life examples are drawn not only form the political world, but from the worlds of sport, higher education, history, and more.
Innovations by the Obama and Tea Party campaigns, the Citizens United Supreme Court decision on fundraising, the Lisa Murkowski write-in campaign for U.S. Senator, new uses for social media and digital advertising in campaigns, and much more state-of-the-science information and campaign innovations that have become part of the scene since the last edition, are included. They make the third edition of
Winning Political Campaigns a must for candidates and staff for campaigns at any level.
Particularly useful are appendices including a sample itinerary for a political event, an event planning checklist, resource organizations expert on various issues, media terms, a sample news release and direct mail piece, and more.
One reason the book is so comprehensive is because few other authors can combine Bike's background of having been a candidate, officeholder, political worker and volunteer, journalist, historian, public relations officer, publications director, government employee, fundraiser, and budget director.
Previous editions of Winning Political Campaigns have not only been used by campaigns, but as textbooks for college and university courses at Harvard University and other institutions of higher learning.
"At a time when a majority of Americans do not participate in the political process, a process with deep impact on the lives of every American…Bill Bike is waging a campaign for involvement—meaningful involvement," said Congressman Danny K. Davis of Illinois. "
Winning Political Campaigns is designed to enable ordinary citizens to take back their government, to be heard, to win. It is a timely and useful book and we welcome it."
"Let the telegenic beltway pundits propound ponderous theories on the state of democracy in the U.S.," wrote Booklist magazine. "Chicago communications consultant Bike offers the view from the trenches… Bike offers well-organized, very detailed advice on virtually every subject a candidate's support team should consider…."
For more information, contact Central Park Communications at (773) 229-0024 or
http://www.centralparkcommunications.com -30-