TheOpportunity of Putin’s Lifetime

Specific toRussia’s security concerns, the convergence of several occurrences represents atight window of high-risk, high-reward opportunity for Vladimir Putin to seize.

Theexpansion of Nato membership has compelled him to use this progressiveencirclement as a convenient excuse to go beyond bellicose rhetoric andactually mobilize his modernized military to invade Ukraine. Nato’s “encroachment”within Russia’s Near Abroad hegemony, as articulated by the chart provided byNato below entitled How Nato Expanded Eastwards, has placed him in a double-bind.Either “do nothing” and lose face (or his head) in debunking his strong manimage who wants to resurrect Soviet might, or risk damning sanctions that couldcripple the Russian economy and trigger a palace coup.

 Thefollowing points represent probable reasons why Putin is confident that therewill not be any direct US/Nato invention should he decide to advance intoUkrainian territory:

·       TheUS leadership is suffering an historical divisiveness with a cognitivelyquestionable president and internationally inexperienced vice-president.

·       Ukraineis a non-EU and non-Nato country thus there are no binding agreements for itsdefense other than military aid and surveillance support.

·       Ukrainehas mostly Soviet-era military equipment. Although they’ve been upgraded theyare no match for the 21^st century equipped Russian military withsuperior firepower.

·       Russiasnatched Crimea without firing a shot and subsequently established a naval basefor maritime domination in the Black Sea.

·       Russianair force sorties with their advanced aircraft in Syria now have battleexperience albeit against far weaker air defenses over failed states.

At this pointthe Twilight Zone possibilities emerge that mimic fictitious organizations suchas SMERSH and SPECTRE from a James Bond movie in which the impossible hasbecome the plausible.

TheKremlin in Kiev

Assuming asuccessful hostile takeover, Putin will have the following leverage over the USand EU:

·       Ukraine- a large geographical buffer between Nato and Russia.

·       Completecontrol over the physical oil and gas pipelines from Russia through Ukrainewhich supply the EU 40% of its energy needs. Present-day pre-invasion the EUhas complained that Russian energy exports are only 50% of contract requirements.

·       Controlover Ukraine’s agricultural exports, mostly grains with the seizure of portcities of Odesa and Mariupol, secured by its naval base at the newly “acquired”Crimea.

Russia-ChinaPartnership | The Iron Bamboo Curtain

Post-invasionit begs the question whether Russia will assume responsibility for rebuildingUkrainian infrastructure. Although Russia has built an economic war chestthrough de-dollarisation and considerable increase in gold holdings, thesetransfers were for the purposes of weathering new draconian US sanctions, notfor rebuilding infrastructure elsewhere.

For thisreason this is where cash-rich China steps in to extend their Belt & RoadInitiative (BRI) into the heart of Europe with the standard usuary infrastructureloans with non-negotiable terms & conditions.

This could represent the largest joint venture bytwo mafia states. Russia is the project manager offering protection while Chinafinances & rebuilds. Russia gets its long-desired buffer state while Chinahas access to the European market to satisfy its insatiable essentialagricultural goods for its 1.4 billion citizens.

In themeantime Russia can leverage their position by “renegotiating” the contractsand terms & conditions of their energy contracts with the Eu. Alternativeenergy sources, short and medium term, face present-day low production, lowinventories, export restrictions and supply chain difficulties all of whichrepresent considerable economic cost. Furthermore the completion of long-termenergy alternatives through pipelines over friendly countries are years away.

Infamous for their gross inefficiencies throughoutright, bold corruption, it would not be far-fetched if Russia and Chinarepeat the same mistakes as the US in Afghanistan. The economic endgame of mind-bogglingwaste can be viewed in the following chart entitled Afghanistan: The US WastedBillions on Buildings & Vehicles provided by the Special Inspector General forAfghanistan Reconstruction.

 A pro-Russian Ukrainian leadership protected by theRussian military with Chinese economic management eliminates any forthcoming USor western economic aid putting ordinary Ukrainians beyond a hybrid iron bamboocurtain and in a dire political and economic position teetering on poverty as ade facto failed state.

Ukrainian Agricultural Overview

The importance of Ukrainian agricultural productioncannot be overstated. According to the International TradeAdministration, agriculture is 9.3% of Ukraine’s GDP.Ukraine’s agricultural yields have been consistently good since 2013 harvestingat least 60 million tons of grains. The 2022 forecast projects a considerableincrease. The average annual yield is three times Ukraine’s domestic needsmaking them self-sufficient and one of the world’s largest agriculturalexporters.

The following data are particulars for each cropprovided by the World Data Center forGeoinformatics and Sustainable Development:

·       With a climate similar to Kansas, Ukraine the main grain outputencompasses wheat, corn, barley and rye.

·       4^th largest exporter of corn (eastern and southern Ukraine),planted in April/May, harvested in September, and barley (eastern Ukraine),planted in April and harvested in August.

·       6^th largest exporter of wheat (south and south-centralUkraine). It’s a winter wheat planted in fall and harvested the followingsummer.

·       7^th largest exporter of soybeans.

·       World’s leading sunflower seed oil exporter (southern and easternregions), planted in April harvested in September. It’s their most profitablecrop because of low production costs and high demand.

·       Most exports are shipped to Spain and Italy,North Africa, the Middle East and East Asia (China, Japan, Korea).

GeopoliticalImpacts

In the nearfuture this development will have an extreme impact on the following:

·       Aboost to conservative and extreme-right parties in the spring French nationalelections.

·       Conservativeand extreme-right parties will gain enormous representative in other democraticEuropean countries which plays into the hands of autocratic Russia and China.

·       Withrespect to the US, this development profoundly changes the American perspectiveon the future of Europe creating an increasing socio-political divisivenessleading to the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential elections.

IncalculableHuman Cost

Wars createmasses of refugees and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be no exception. Forseveral years Western Europe has been overwhelmed with unrelenting waves of refugeesmost of whom are non-white, non-Christian and who come from failed statesexacerbating the socio-economic-political tensions in these countries.

The internal and external displacement of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainiansfleeing to and remaining long-term in western European countries, alreadyburdened by millions from Middle East, Afghanistan, North Africa andsub-Saharan Africa, represent “the straw that breaks the camel’s back.” Alreadyfrayed social safetynets are at their breaking point. Even a modicum of additional refugees cantrigger violent civil unrest in European countries whose citizenry are furiousat their government over pandemic-related mandates.

On the otherhand, Ukrainian movement to any European country far easier because movement isover land instead of treacherous seas. Furthermore, their European racial,ethnic and religious backgrounds would make it easier to blend in, move aboutand “disappear” from law enforcement far better than most present-day refugees.Some Ukrainians probably have family and friends with legal citizenry elsewherein Europe with whom they can stay. Finally they would gain greater sympathy andsupport as war refugees vs economic refugees.

Thefollowing chart entitled Mapping the World’s RefugeePopulation providedby the United Nations Human Refugee Agency (UNHCR) indicates the 2020 year-end stateof affairs with respect to the refugee country of origin. As you can imagine, theRussian invasion thoroughly rewrites this chart.

Conclusion

Whether bydefault or design, Russia and China appear to be carving new spheres ofinfluence using agricultural-rich Ukraine as a military buffer and food sourceall while hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians create a refugee tsunamito flood nearby European countries taxing their socio-economic safety nets andgoodwill.

Russia willnow have control of the Ukrainian agricultural sector as well as energysupplies to Europe which represent nothing short of blackmail resulting inenergy and food price spikes and, if compliance is not adhered to, outrightshortages.

Nonethelessthe aforementioned forecast may be part of the Russian strategic plan only iftheir primary objectives are met swiftly including the cooperation of an alwayspolitically fickle China.

Firstly,Russia and China collaborate only as a matter of convenience against USinterests. None of their previous agreements have been profound or enduring.For this reason a New Order in Europe dictated by mafia states may be nothingmore than a mirage.

Secondly,autocracies and their kleptocratic practices have historically collapsedbecause of over-reach. This risk is heightened by the fact that neither Russia norChina have natural allies, only small, militarily weak collaborators who havelittle choice but to toe the line. This represents one of the main differencesbetween autocracies and democracies which is why their reach is limited andultimately fleeting.

© Copyright 2022 Cerulean Council

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank thatprovides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and riskassessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.