Historical Pattern

Why does a nation time after time follow the same patterns rising to empire-like power and then expanding the military to control others?  Emerging nations arise from the void of older established nations neglecting them, as they are on the outskirts of the main power play action.  Britain and Japan off the continent.  Later Germany ignored in the tussle between France and Britain in centuries past, rises to great power status in the World Wars.  Low military spending was the key to the Prussian school system excellence before those wars.  Now America, protected by two oceans, emerges and militarizes after World War II.  The pride makes them think they are invincible, not realizing that the military economic diversion will ultimately lead to the fall of the empire.  Poor science, and the military Keynesianism mistake of John Maynard Keynes, leads powerful nations to believe they can afford to spend a lot on the military.  Short term thinking also leads to poor high military budget decisions.  But ignorance of the Reuschlein findings, model, and defense strategy are prideful errors that really hurt.  Most people are number-phobic and don't see the negative consequences of military spending.  They recognize the economic boom in military buildup areas, but fail to see the compensating decline in manufacturing in the rest of the country, especially the industrial Midwest Great Lakes states in America.  Then the deficit and war bonding lift the economy in major wars, unless they don't match the military spending as in the economic decline in 1944 through 1947 for America in World War II and the two years after the war.

Famous Presidencies   

America was very fortunate to have Washington as their first president.  He set the pattern of limiting himself to two terms to avoid the tendency of leaders to cling to power.  Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.  But it's hard not to notice all of America's top presidents have a war associated with them.  Wanting to set the historical record is very tempting to presidents and national leaders.  Winning a war is a big part of being a big part of history.  So the lure of fame urges many a leader into war.  Switzerland, run by a committee, is war averse, while most single leader nations are war prone.  Another characteristic of major war presidents is that they were not around to see the previous major war first hand.  Average age for starting a war among American presidents is 57, hence the 54 year cycle of major wars leaves them all too young to participate in the last major war.  Having served in a war can temper a leaders judgement, avoiding the reckless rush into war.     

Hottest Downloads Exceeded

Since the publication of my "Hottest Downloads" press release April 14, 2017 three more academia.edu papers greatly exceeded anything on that list in the next half year.  These three new blockbusters were first "Dear Future US President" posted on May 8, 2017 soared to 87 downloads on 103 views, an astonishing 84% download to views rate.  The second came out as I renewed my association with "Dungeons and Dragons" founder Gary Gygax's followers.  Telling my story of how the ten years of wargaming with Gygax lead to his invention was so fascinating that 130 downloaded and 229 viewed "History of Gary Gygax and War Economy" with a download to views rate of 57% this was posted on June 18, 2017.  Then in August 2017 "Military Complete Geography" was posted with its summary of the military political economy of the 50 United States.  This was viewed by 158 and downloaded by 163 with most downloading two copies each. This is a download rate of 103%.  My press release of almost the same name August 8th looked mainly at the top 32 states, with some small inaccuracies and incompleteness.

Nobel Prize Interest Peaks in Third Year   

No one but the Norwegian Nobel Committee has tried to look at all my 183 press releases on ExpertClick.com.  That signature convinced me they were very serious about my nomination from the starting two months of February and March 2016.  Then nothing happened for a while as the Columbian President won the Peace Prize in 2016.  But in 2017 some very strange things started happening.  Twelve days before and 10 days before someone looked at 24 of the most recent press releases.  I thought this meant the chair and vice chair of the five member committee were studying me.  Then the same thing the night before the announcement, perhaps a search for a third vote.  Then the award went to an anti-nuclear group ICAN with no coverage except the live broadcast on the BBC.  The world said "ho hum".  Since then twice in November, three times in January, four times in February and on March 8^th the signature pattern repeated, looking at the last 26 or 24 in a row.  Of these ten different visits since the last announcement, three may have come from Germany or France, one from Australia, and one from Switzerland, since the wordpress.com website seems to precede the access to the ExpertClick.com press releases.  Thorbjorn Jagland, Secretary General of the Council of Europe since 2009, works in Strasbourg, France and may live across the river in Germany.  He has the economics background to follow me most closely.  Australia could be a false lead, and Switzerland could be Thorbjorn Jagland on assignment in say Geneva, since he is the Chancellor of the Council of Europe.  It seems like I may be a favorite this year, look out October 5^th.

For the original number one downloaded paper on academia.edu website:

https://www.academia.edu/34337629/MILITARY_COMPLETE_GEOGRAPHY_2017_9_pages

Please cite this work as follows:

Reuschlein, Robert. (2018, March 11), "Pride Leads to Empire Fall", Madison, WI:  Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Pride-Leads-to-Empire-Fall,2018155054.aspx