Saturday, November 2, 2019
Overall
Trump was elected by a manufacturing recession that impacted the so-called "Blue Wall" of the upper Midwest manufacturing states. This recession was a result of the military buildup in Obama's last year sharply reversing the military budget cuts of the 2012-2015 period. Because military and manufacturing are opposites in economic growth and jobs and regional impact this happened. Because Obama Clinton and Carter all believed in military Keynesianism, all three mistakenly began military buildups in their last years thinking that could help the Democratic ticket, but instead leading to recessions in the election year that elected three Republicans. Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Indiana and are four of the top five manufacturing states per capita with Pennsylvania not far behind those four. Correlation on this (details below), R=-.94 (2012-2016).
Election 2020
The next election is already showing the coming manufacturing recession from Trump's trade wars, as GM shuts down Cruz production in Youngstown Ohio and Trump greatly accelerated the small Obama military buildup by about $100 billion dollars. The temporary economic relief due to the 2018 tax cuts has been more than offset by these events. The outsider benefit to Trump of these events in 2016 will hurt Trump now that he is the insider and will be held responsible for the manufacturing recession in the upper Midwest states. Trump could even lose Ohio, the most manufacturing oriented of the eight traditional largest states.
Year Millions Change Billions $
Sept Mfg Jobs In Jobs Military Change
2009 11.591
2010 11.563 -.028
2011 11.769 .206
2012 11.954 .185 -46.55
2013 12.056 .102 -25.09
2014 12.226 .170 -29.79 R= -.94 (2012-2016)
2015 12.350 .124 -13.89
2016 12.344 -.006 +15.17 Mil Buildup Manufacture Recession Elects Trump
2017 12.467 .123
2018 12.733 .266 Tax Cut Stimulus Stops in January 2019
2019 12.850 .117 first 4 months .093 Tariffs last 8 months .024
Manufacturing Jobs In Recent Years
One Page Peace Economics Summary:
https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), "Recession Elects Trump 2016" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Recession-Elects-Trump 2016,2019195749.aspx
Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,
Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com
Info: www.realeconomy.com