Congress, Trump and the Supreme Court Will Decide DACA

By Peggy Sands

Last week Congress passed and President Trump signed a two year multi-trillion dollar budget after weeks of contention and two brief government shutdowns.  It only happened because Congressional leaders promised to consider how some 700,000 to 4 million illegal immigrants known as DREAMERS – 18-30 year-old illegal immigrants who "came into the U.S. before the age of 16" and have been here five years or more -- might be given legal status.

The President laid out four "pillars" of immigration reform -- the basics to any bill that he would sign. They are: permanent legal status to 1.8 million DREAMERS, secure the border with a wall and other elements, and end two programs of the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act, family unification/chain migration and the "diversity" lottery visa program.

Congress agreed to start the process in the Senate, since any bill will need 60 votes and thus need Democrats to sign on. The House with its strong Republican majority is expected to pass a conservative bill, probably closely following the lines of the Presidents' proposal.

As of Wednesday morning there are five Republican proposals circulating around the Senate.  They go from more or less parroting the president's four pillars, to pushing broad immigration reform even without legalizing any current illegal immigrants.

Democrats headed by minority leader Chuck Schumer are expected to put their proposal on the floor this morning.  Look for it to initially be narrow: up to 4 million DREAMERS given permanent legal status (the green card – the only permit from which, after five years, an immigrant can apply for citizenship if they choose) with perhaps some minimal expanded border security.

I have been covering the U.S. Congress - sausage factory of immigration law making - for ten years.  I've written two books about it.  New immigration law will be a numbers game again. 

Watch how Democrats will conflate DACA recipients with DREAMERS.  DACA recipients are some 690,000 millennials ages 18-30 years old who had applied for and received temporary waivers from deportation and temporary work permits under President Obama's 2012 DACA program.  DREAMERS are some 2-4 million adults who Senator Dick Durbin (IL) wants re-defined as anyone who came in the U.S. under the age of 18, has been here four years and no upper age limit. President Trump went for the middle number: 1.8 million. 

How many DACA/DREAMERS are legalized will probably determine how many other immigration reform elements will be exchanged for them.

Senate leaders have been pushing it be done in the next three days before Congress adjourns for a week.   Democrats are pushing against the March 5 deadline when the DACA program ends. But it is possible if not likely that no agreement is reached by week's end.  A new wrinkle appeared last night.

Tuesday evening U.S. District Judge Nicholas Garaufis in Brooklyn ruled that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA, cannot end in March.  If DACA doesn't end, the political urgency is lessened considerably. 

There are risks for both parties prolonging the discussion too long. But they may be forced to wait. Once again it seems the Supreme Court will be a deciding factor. 

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