21 May AMERICA’S NEXT PRESIDENT: “CANDIDATE SMITH”

David recently presented a US political analysis and forecast to a group of top business leaders, experts, and academics. The excerpt below is based on this presentation.

–Team DMG Global

Who will be America’s next president? Answer: An “Outsider,” a change candidate, an insurgent perceived to be ready to shake-up and fix today’s broken status quo. The winner will be a prototypical “Candidate Smith.”

Today, we live inside an unprecedented kaleidoscope of volatility and challenge: Constitutional crises, immigration upheavals, assassinations, hyper-volatile economics, tariffs, debt burdens, inequalities, and multi-war geopolitical dangers—alongside a US government running out of money at the end of September.

This 360-degree pain and discomfort is one reason incumbent leaders lose and will continue to lose. For example, 25 years ago, 70 percent of incumbents were re-elected—today that number is down to 30 percent. Last year, virtually every incumbent went down to defeat in some form or another: America’s Biden, Canada’s Trudeau, India’s Modi, Britain’s Sunak, Japan’s Kishida, and South Korea’s Yoon.

All lost power on three issues, the Three “As” that will determine US leadership success in 2026 and 2028: Affordability, Authenticity, and Anger—and the ability of a candidate or leader to channel and refocus rising populist dissatisfaction.

This is where “Candidate Smith” and the Three “As” come into play—e.g., Zohran Mamdani and the New York mayoralty race.

Some of the idea of “Candidate Smith” was developed in the 1980s at our political consulting firm, the Sawyer-Miller Group, and was researched by the late Pat Caddell, Scott Miller, and Bob Perkins. Beginning in 2011, this group began identifying a rising tide, in fact a tsunami, of alienation, anger, and frustration at what most voters feel is a “broken political system.”

In 2014, this research found over 80 percent of voters from all demographics and political persuasions agreed with the following statement:

“An elite of incumbents of both parties, lobbyists, big banks, big unions, big special interests, big business and big media rig the system in Washington, D.C. to protect their own power and prestige.”

The researchers created a hypothetical and ideal “Candidate Smith”—inspired by Jimmy Stewart in the movie “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington”—to see if he or she could channel the emotional force of these alienated voters. The premise of Candidate Smith’s campaign: “We face many important challenges in our country, but we cannot take on any of them until we fix our broken political system.”

These results and the hunger for change are widespread and continue today. They help explain Donald Trump’s victories in 2016 against a defend-the-status quo Hillary Clinton and, in 2024, against the Biden-Harris’ perceived failures on inflation, immigration, Afghanistan, and wokeism.

Today, leading into 2026, this is the secret sauce of who will win the midterm elections and who, in 2028, will be America’s next president. The 2026 midterm elections will follow strong showings for the Democrats in this year’s gubernatorial races: Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virgina. And these 2026 midterm elections will likely be about the Three “As” alongside the answer to a critical question: Who will “check and balance” an Administration perceived by a majority of voters now to be either on the wrong track, out of control, or a threat to the US constitution itself.

Beyond the wild card of redistricting, add to all this the fact that President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” polls as the most unpopular piece of legislation in recent decades and at least since 1990. This is one reason for the current out-flow of support for the Trump Administration from independents—Trump, for example, polls 29% approval for handling inflation . . . coincidentally, the same low number the Democratic party itself polls, given its lack of power and deep division following its 2024 loss.

In non-presidential election years, history shows parties that hold the House, Senate, and White House lose independent voters 2:1—and motivate higher turnout for the opposing party. Translation: Given the Three “As” the Democrats will very probably take over the House and come close—still unlikely to secure a majority—to winning control of the Senate.

And, for 2028, there is an early template for how the Democrats can win and who will win: “Candidate Smith”—a perceived “Outsider,” a change leader, an insurgent, and I predict a “Unifier.” This candidate will be inspirationally bold on the “Three As”—Affordability, Authenticity, and Anger, and will channel the force of a deeply dissatisfied electorate into the direction they seek to lead.

Consider, over the last 25 years, every single turnover of the White House to another party has been motivated by voters essentially seeking the perceived opposite of the incumbent. Think about it: Clinton’s impeachment pain to Bush’s perceived “compassionate conservatism”; Bush’s unpopular war, Katrina, and financial crisis to Obama’s steadier “hope-and-change”; Obama’s over-cautionary incumbent leadership to Trump’s “try-something-totally-different” offering; Trump’s pandemic mishandling and unpopular personality to Biden’s “battle for the soul of the nation” moderation; or the Biden-Harris’ perceived inflation, immigration, and too-liberal failures to Trump’s “let’s-roll-the-dice-again” argument.

Put it all together, America’s next president will be the opposite of where Trump’s leadership is heading today—our next president will be on the right side of the Three “As” a unifier, a change leader, and a perceived “Outsider.” And we already know the winning Candidate’s name: “SMITH.”

David Morey, Chairman and CEO of DMG Global, is one of America’s leading strategic consultants—and one of the nation’s most sought-after speakers. Mr. Morey is the best-selling author of The Underdog Advantage, The Leadership Campaign, Creating Business Magic, #1 New Release on Amazon, and Innovating Innovation. He has worked with and helped add billions of dollars in revenue and market value to some of the world’s top companies.

Morey has advised five Nobel Peace Prize winners, twenty-three winning global presidential campaigns—along with a who’s who of Fortune 500 CEOs and companies including GE, Verizon, Apple, Samsung, Deloitte, LinkedIn, Google, The Coca-Cola Company, Mars, KPMG, McDonald’s, Microsoft, News Corp., Nike, Pepsi, P&G, Disney, Visa, NBC, CVS, American Express, TPG, and many others.

Morey was a four-time All-American Decathlon competitor and is a graduate of the Wharton School (BS) and the London School of Economics (MSc).