PostLabor Day has traditionally represented a routine return to work and school froma restful summer as everyone plunges into a busy autumn schedule replete with abevy of holidays.

However,geopolitical tensions have not abated and continue to simmer at anuncomfortable level. With respect to domestic risks, particularly New YorkCity, the security risks are already at code “red” for intense civil unrest.

PotentialTriggers & Tripwires

Thefollowing scheduled events present a target-rich environment for protestors,counter-protestors, agitators, anarchists and non-political street thuggery.

The mostunpredictable factor is that general street thuggery takes advantage of animpossibly over-stretched law enforcement to wreak havoc, even in their own communities.The “popular” teen street takeovers in major cities this summer have often devolvedinto mass looting.

The notableupcoming events:

•  The commemoration of the 25^thanniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
• ·       The Jewish high holy holidaysnotably Rosh Hashana [Jewish New Year, September 11-13], Yom Kippur [Day ofAtonement, September 20-21] and Sukkot [Feast of Tabernacles, September 25-October2].
• ·       UN General Assembly High-LevelWeek (September 18-28].
• ·       October 7^thanniversary of Hamas’s slaughter of Israelis citizens.
• ·       October 27^th Israelielections.
• ·       November 3^rd midtermelections including the governorship of NY State.

PREDICTIVE MAYHEM BREAKDOWN

9/1125^th year commemoration

Thepolitical powder keg could blow its top with respect to NYC mayor Mamdani’s unrelentingand unapologetic anti-capitalist proposed policies & rhetoric. His exceptionallyclose friendships with vocally anti-American, anti-western, anti-Christian andanti-Semitic preaching & practices has been particularly galling.

ShouldMamdani speak at the event and soft-pedal the unspeakable mass murders thattook place on that fateful date and absolve any blame on radical Muslims andsympathizers, Gracie Mansion might as well be his bunker for the rest of histerm.

JewishHolidays

It iswell-documented that there has been a dramatic increase in anti-Semitic crime andprotests. Further attacks on those of the Jewish faith and their institutionswithout an immediate proportional response & action by Mamdani and hisadministration will further fracture city government’s relationship with theJewish community even among their liberals.

Just asthose of Korean descent defended their properties during the Los Angeles riotsof 1992 toting legal firearms – nicknamed Rooftop Koreans - so might the Jewishcommunity resort to a justifiable aggressive defense.

UNGeneral Assembly High Level Week

Theworld leadership will gather at the UN during September 18-28. Although thesecurity perimeter will be wide & deep, raucous protests will certainlytake place nearby and/or other high-profile venues. Israeli Prime MinisterNetanyahu will certainly be the top political “celebrity” during this emotionallycharged period.

October7^th Hamas Massacre

BecauseNYC is the home to the largest Jewish population outside Israel, the Jewishcommunity could come under physical attack by the “Usual Suspects” ofanti-Semites.

Should Mamdanidecide to ignore the anniversary date entirely by not providing a statement condemningthe barbaric assault, it would be a de facto green light for thugs torun amok against the Jewish community.

IsraeliElections

Accordingto polls, Netanyahu is trailing his rivals and his allies. His biggest advantageto a re-election victory is that he’s a wartime incumbent.

Shouldhe lose, there’s no guarantee that his successor will immediately halt militaryoperations. In fact, Iran and their minions might decide to test the newleadership to determine if it’s soft; such as if they’re amenable to large-scaleimmediate military withdrawal and political compromises.

AmericanMidterm Elections

Callingit contentious elections would be an understatement. Whether Trump’s GOP winsor loses, it will be rough ride [greater political instability] to the 2028presidential elections.

A Trumpvictory would signal the same draconian action domestically and internationallyuntil 2028. The same would occur if he should lose because he’ll continue hispolicies by executive decree wherever he can. In other words, Trump can’t lose.

UrbanThuggery

Thoughnot a specific event, it’s an element that will take advantage of theaforementioned triggers & tripwires. Think of this probability as the roguewave that is unpredictable, comes out of nowhere, and is more devastating thanjust an annoying out of control block party.

Whilelaw enforcement is dealing with mass protests, these street thugs will “up”their game dramatically with street takeovers with over-the-top looting even inthe poshest neighborhoods.

Conclusion& Takeaways

Brick& mortar commercial enterprises are particularly vulnerable to mobs bent onproperty destruction. Hopefully these business owners have learned theirlessons from previous experiences and already established their securityprotocols for their personnel and property.

For theaverage citizen, a “watch your six” protocol should be followed vigorouslythrough the remainder of this year due to the violent opportunists who intendto use the aforementioned events and religious holidays markers to commitmayhem.

Autumnwill not cool off this hot period of street maelstroms regardless ofneighborhood as violent spillovers from hot zones to traditionally safe zones willbe a normal and repeated occurrence.

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The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank thatprovides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and riskassessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.