Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Advanced technologyand globalization have enabled many countries to wage a silent war without theneed to commit soldiers. The 21st century soldiers sit behindcomputer screens whose AI-driven software provides the parameters ofdecision-making for the military and government.
This “WarRoom” includes the economic sector which can shutdown access to capital instantaneouslyto one’s adversaries. The effectiveness of sanctions is debatable and has hadmixed results as countries, at least the leadership, have survived, even thrivedwithout compromising their lavish lifestyles. Furthermore, sanctions have frequentlyhurt innocent third parties which are highly dependent on commercial relations,usually commodities, from the sanction targeted country.
Nuclear Level Economic Sanctions
Because of Russia’s first-step invasion into theDonbas region and probable subsequent invasion elsewhere in Ukraine, theforthcoming sanctions by the US and European allies will be far more draconianthan previous ones.
The following chart entitled WhyHas the US Sanctioned Russia in the Past? provided by the Congressional ResearchService, indicate past sanctions against Russia and the reasons for theirimplementation.
In this warenvironment western sanctions will be broad and deep encompassing all the abovecategories and possibly the creation of others.
Because Ukraineis not a Nato member, the US/Nato are not legally obligated to engage Russianforces directly on Ukrainian soil. Furthermore although the vast majority ofthe US/Nato citizenry think Russia’s invasion is abhorrent, they are firmlyagainst their respective countries direct involvement militarily.
Russian PollsterPropaganda
Thefollowing chart entitled Russia’sFriends and Foes provided by the Levada Analytical Center, an independentRussian non-governmental research organization, represents the results of apoll of 1,620 Russian adults in May 2021.
The “Enemies” of Russia category in descendingorder are USA, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Latvia/Poland and Lithuania.
The “Friends” of Russia category in descending orderare Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, Armenia and India.
Indeed this is an extremely threadbare pollconsisting of only 1,620 samples, not enough for a comprehensive breakdown ofsocio-economic-educational status nor one that one can extrapolate accurately.Furthermore the poll is based on the threats to their government, notpersonally.
Although various western sources have confirmedthat the Levada Center has come underscrutiny and pressure by the Russian government particularly, under the Putinregime, this does not mean that there is some type of Russian government influence.The paucity of samples is outrageously unprofessional.
I believe thatdespite its official independent, non-governmental status, this is a primeexample of Russian governmental coerced propaganda which severely skews Russiancitizens’ viewpoint of the west and contradicts the actions and experiences of manyex-pat Russians, from white collar professionals to billionaires, who investedheavily and are enjoying far better lifestyles in western societies and even seekingcitizenship in those countries.
US vsRussia | Next Level Military Confrontation
As thesaying goes, “Here’s where it gets complicated.” During the Cold War theRussian and US militaries have made efforts to avoid direct militaryconfrontation by using proxies. Nonetheless there were many confrontations tookplace but were quickly negotiated and resolved, often quietly. However thePutin regime is a different Russian bear from his Soviet predecessors in theSoviet model he enthusiastically extolls.
There are multiple circumstances that raise therisk of direct conflict between US/Nato forces and Russia troops during theconflict. In war non-combatant third parties provide on-the-ground, hands-on technicaland surveillance assistance, and are sometimes embedded within foreign units. Thecapture or death of US/Nato personnel could raise the intensity of the conflictproviding Putin justification to raise the stakes further before and/or after theconflict. It’s one thing to capture US/Nato equipment and another to captureUS/Nato personnel within a war zone where it is not officially participating.
Other scenarios include the capture of US/Nato personnelduring the extraction of key Ukrainians and their families either by land orair (helicopter). This might occur even post-invasion for those Ukrainians ofvital interest to US/Nato who stayed until the end of the war and now havedifficulty leaving the country while eluding Russian security units.
Conclusion
The US and its allies have declared a nuclear-leveleconomic war Russia in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, a tactic thatRussia had factored in and is reasonably prepared to weather.
The dicier threat is in the form of possible, evenprobable, direct confrontation between US and Russian military personnel inUkraine with respect to firefights. Despite all the satellite andcyber-technology, the US requires “boots on the ground”, primarily surveillance& technical, to assess Russia’s capabilities and intentions. The risk is gettingcaught too deep and risk capture if an extraction operation fails.
The Cold War “courtesies” of quiet prisonerexchanges may not apply under a Putin led Russia and push Putin’s paranoia offthe rails. For this reason, Putin may employ his cyber-warfare machine againstthe US and/or other Nato member(s).
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