Thursday, May 15, 2025
Last weekend’s meeting in Geneva between U.S. and Chinese senior government officials to discuss trade policies and tariffs was hailed as a success by the Trump administration. The two countries reached a deal for a 90-day suspension of the punitively high tariffs they had imposed on each other’s goods. Global stock markets cheered loudly in agreement, with each of the major U.S. stock indices rising by three percent or more on the first day of trading following the talks.
Under the agreement, the U.S. will lower its tariff on imports from China from the current 145 percent to 30 percent. The Chinese will take theirs down to 10 percent from 125 percent. At first glance, the numbers suggest that the U.S. came out ahead since its tariff is still a hefty 30 percent. But it turns out that they are actually equal on each side, at 10 percent. The extra 20 percent that the U.S. will continue to levy during the 90-day period represents a tariff that was previously imposed to punish China for doing too little to stop the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.
The whole point of the global trade war that President Trump unleashed last month is to help rebalance U.S. trade with the rest of the world. It is difficult to see what fentanyl has to do with the unfair commercial practices that have allowed China to run such humongous trade surpluses against the U.S. for years. As things stand now, by his haphazard approach to policymaking, and his alienation of the allies that he could have teamed up with to pressure China, the president appears to be squandering a glorious opportunity to resolve a longstanding problem that he has correctly kept the spotlight on.
Leaders are supposed to speak softly and carry a big stick. President Trump does exactly the opposite, unfortunately. He talks incessantly and too loudly, while the stick in his hand progressively shrinks. Most observers, even here in the U.S., see his tariff climbdown as a capitulation and a win for China. The Chinese themselves see it that way, and they have been jubilating in Beijing.
President Trump has one massive disadvantage in this contest of wills with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Autocrats can impose costs on their societies for lengthy periods of time without having to answer to their citizens. President Trump doesn’t have that luxury. He has been forced to compromise much sooner than he would have liked because of the reactions of the U.S. financial markets and the public.
U.S. business leaders have been warning for weeks that the tariff standoff with China would lead to empty shelves during back-to-school shopping season and possibly Christmas. In response to those public worries, President Trump said this: “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. So maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.” For that, he was lampooned by many in the media.
The fears raised by the business sector and the public were legitimate. The sudden disruption in trade between the two largest economies in the world, something Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently characterized as an embargo, would have quickly led to job losses and possibly, as some economists have been predicting, a recession. But President Trump was making a crucially important point when he said that we should be willing to tolerate some level of pain for some period in this country in order to find a durable solution to the massive trade imbalance problems we have with nations like China.
There is certainly a lot that the president is doing wrong with his approach to this issue. The press has a duty to highlight those mistakes. But their main focus should be on helping to educate the public about the necessity of some of the policies this administration is trying to implement to solve a problem that has been left improperly addressed for far too long. Because of partisanship, few people seem willing to cheer for the national team nowadays. We applaud only when our side is on the field. We undermine our own leaders even when they are trying to deal with a national problem that affects every citizen. Instead of seeing wisdom in President Trump’s suggestion that perhaps we should train our children to be content with a couple of toys instead of dozens, many rather ridicule him.
In light of the media’s dereliction of duty, it would be a good idea for our presidents to use the bully pulpit their office provides them to communicate some of their thoughts directly to the public. But for some curious reason, they fail to grab that opportunity. Former President Joe Biden was particularly guilty of that. He never articulated to the American people the rationale for U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.
As his pronouncements and frantic actions suggest, President Trump clearly thinks that the U.S. trade imbalances with the rest of the world constitute a national emergency. If that is true, then he needs to make the case coherently, ideally in an Oval Office address, to get the public on board with whatever painful programs he has in mind to address the problem. Too many Americans remain in the dark. That will keep hampering his efforts.