Overall

Trump was elected by a manufacturing recession that impacted the so-called "Blue Wall" of the upper Midwest manufacturing states.  This recession was a result of the military buildup in Obama's last year sharply reversing the military budget cuts of the 2012-2015 period.  Because military and manufacturing are opposites in economic growth and jobs and regional impact this happened.  Because Obama Clinton and Carter all believed in military Keynesianism, all three mistakenly began military buildups in their last years thinking that could help the Democratic ticket, but instead leading to recessions in the election year that elected three Republicans.  Ohio Michigan Wisconsin and Indiana and are four of the top five manufacturing states per capita with Pennsylvania not far behind those four.  Correlation on this (details below), R=-.94 (2012-2016).

Election 2020

The next election is already showing the coming manufacturing recession from Trump's trade wars, as GM shuts down Cruz production in Youngstown Ohio and Trump greatly accelerated the small Obama military buildup by about $100 billion dollars.  The temporary economic relief due to the 2018 tax cuts has been more than offset by these events.  The outsider benefit to Trump of these events in 2016 will hurt Trump now that he is the insider and will be held responsible for the manufacturing recession in the upper Midwest states.  Trump could even lose Ohio, the most manufacturing oriented of the eight traditional largest states.

Year    Millions         Change          Billions $

Sept    Mfg Jobs       In Jobs          Military Change

2009   11.591           

2010   11.563            -.028                          

2011   11.769            .206               

2012   11.954            .185                -46.55

2013   12.056            .102                -25.09

2014   12.226             .170                -29.79             R= -.94 (2012-2016)

2015   12.350            .124                -13.89

2016   12.344            -.006               +15.17   Mil Buildup Manufacture Recession Elects Trump

2017   12.467            .123

2018   12.733            .266    Tax Cut Stimulus Stops in January 2019

2019   12.850            .117    first 4 months    .093            Tariffs     last 8 months   .024       

Manufacturing Jobs In Recent Years

One Page Peace Economics Summary:

https://www.academia.edu/4044456/SUMMARY_Military_DisEconomics_Accuracy13_1p_13

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, October 10), "Recession Elects Trump 2016" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Recession-Elects-Trump 2016,2019195749.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute,

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com

Info: www.realeconomy.com