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Reasons for Nobel Prize
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Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert
Madison , WI
Monday, September 16, 2019

 

Overall

Alfred Nobel's Will states the second reason for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to the persons who have done the most in the last year to "reduce armies".  Nothing could do more to make the leaders of governments worldwide to want to reduce their armies than the realization that the negative economic impact of military spending is to deplete capital investment and economic growth rates by the same amount as the military spending.  This has the counterproductive impact of weakening the nation in the name of defending the nation.  All militaries acknowledge the vital role economic strength plays in national defense.  Existing economic theories are fooled by the apparent economic support military spending gives to regions of a country.  This support ignores the "opportunity cost" of reducing manufacturing construction mining and agriculture, the goods producing industries, by the research and capital devoted instead to the military.  Unfortunately, military spending is a source of local leader political power wherever it is spent, and the national defense argument is used to overpay those involved in military industries aggravating the lost opportunity costs to the rest of the economy.

The Power of Science

The economists of the world are so convinced that "there will never be a science of economics" that they accept their humble role of fine tuning the business micro economics of supply and demand and turn to the weak blunt instrument of monetary policy or throw their hands in the air about macro economics "whatever that is".  Keynesian economics works quite well, thank you, once you understand that government deficit spending lifts the economy and military spending depletes the economy dollar for dollar.  Then put the economy on the long term sinusoidal roller coaster of the Kondratiev (1926) 54 year cycle and measure the results every Juglar (1858) cycle of about eight to ten years (sometimes seven to eleven years) and United States manufacturing productivity growth rate becomes an exact science from 1920 to 1983, with precision comparable to early physics experiments of the Isaac Newton age.  Creating an actual science of macro economics was an engineering and accounting challenge met by a one-time leading war gamer and mathematician of Gary Gygax's "International Federation of Wargaming" (1967-1973).  I gave up my wargaming career of an armchair general in 1974 moving to the West Coast for an MBA and political career in the eighties.  That same year (1974) Gary Gygax, my first mentor, invented "Dungeons and Dragons" selling one thousand copies that first year and millions a year just three or four years later.  His son told me that Gary talked about me all the time.

Science Changes Everything

Economists study the entrails of the economy in detail hoping to elicit clues about where the economy is going. They make argumentative cases for their educated guesses like a lawyer or a politician.  There are no certainties in their world.  Like a carpenter who measures three times and cuts once, scientists and engineers are far more meticulous and precise.  Scientific theories represent paradigm shifts that forever change our perspectives on the world.  Family history shows that students who can't make it in engineering turn to accounting and those who can't make it into accounting turn to economics.  As an engineer who made four honor societies in the third best electrical engineering program in the United States, and later became a Certified Public Accountant, I'm not third string like the economists.  Economic forecasting, Stock Market forecasting, Hurricane forecasting, and War forecasting will never be the same once people understand the power of my new models of the world and the science they are based on.

Empire Changes Everything

When these new sciences are applied to history a new appreciation for the impact of military spending on explaining American history and society over the last hundred years helps detail the state of empire America has fallen into.  Crime and health rates rise and fall with the changes in military spending, and states with the highest military spending are where the survivors of presidential primaries came from during the Cold War, when all elected US Presidents came from the high military spending states.  All eleven Cold War elections of US presidents were won by high military spending states candidates, and the seven low military spending states candidates nominated by one of the two major parties all lost.  Likewise, congressional leadership, cabinet secretaries, and Supreme Court appointees have all been about 80% from high military spending states, even though the population is equally divided between high and low military spending states.  I call this the empire bias.  Just as the Cold War arm race made Massachusetts Institute of Technology the leading Pentagon research institution, the post Cold War foreign policy and CIA emphasis made Johns Hopkins the leading Pentagon research institute today.  Likewise, CIA democrats like Clinton and Obama have become acceptable "emperors" or modern presidents outside the high military states club.  The CIA hides its agents well, so these two presidents and the elder George Bush have not come out of the closet as CIA agents in their youth yet.

Stories Change Everything

The story of the Cold War economy comes from my first Ruth Leger Sivard inspired graph.  Imagine the G7 countries in the Cold War as a story of three boats with nine people in each boat.  The American boat has two with oars and seven with swords.  The European boat has five with oars and four with swords.  The Japanese boat has eight with oars and one with a sword.  Who is going to win the race?  The Japanese won the Cold War economic race and the Europeans took time off for vacations and families with their high productivity.  The Americans bought into militarism and elitism and left the middle class behind as the rich quadrupled their income, wealth, and power.  If leaders still believe economics and military power are two independent goals unrelated to each other, the folly of militarism will continue, and peace and prosperity will remain elusive.

The Economic Engineering Model That Changes Everything: https://www.academia.edu/7632773/PROOF_of_Peace_Economics_11_pages_1986

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2019, September 16), "Reasons for Nobel Prize" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Reasons-for-Nobel-Prize,2019194670.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nominated Vetted 2016 (2 Web Looks), Given Odds 2017 (3 Web Looks), Strongly Considered 2018 (48 Web Looks, one million words) for Nobel Peace Prize, and a favorite in 2019 (double pace of last year: 118 Strong Web Looks in 11.5 months) for Nobel Peace Prize to be announced Friday October 4th, 2019.

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com,

Info: www.realeconomy.com

 
Dr. Robert W. Reuschlein
Economics Professor
Real Economy Institute
Madison, WI
 
 
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