Despite the raft of sanctions that the U.S. and its allies have imposed on Russia since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s war machine continues to operate at full tilt. That has led to calls for additional sanctions, and for tightening of the existing ones. President Trump has until now been reluctant to go along with new sanctions however. That has left Ukraine’s European supporters struggling to find a way forward.

My view all along has been that there were unrealistic expectations of the speed with which sanctions would cripple Russia’s economy and hence its war machine. Generally, sanctions don’t constitute a lethal injection that leads to death within a short period of time. Their effects are felt over time. In Russia’s case, the demise would surely have happened a lot faster had India and China not come to its rescue by purchasing millions of barrels of its oil. But recent data by Reuters suggest that the slow death is indeed occurring.

The Russian economy grew strongly at 4.1 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent last year, outpacing growth in developed economies in the West. Russia’s outperformance was mainly a result of excessive military spending to prop up its war machine. But that came at a huge cost. It ignited inflation that its central bank is struggling to contain.

In October last year, Russia’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to an eye-popping 21 percent. The high cost of credit and labor shortages (a direct result of the war) have drastically curtailed economic activity. The finance minister recently told President Putin that economic growth is now predicted to be just about 1.5 percent this year, down from the official forecast of 2.5 percent. Those figures are actually quite a bit rosier than IMF forecasts, which call for growth of just 0.9 percent versus its earlier projection of 1.5 percent. According to data by Rosstat, Russia’s federal statistics service, the country’s GDP grew by 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 4.0 percent growth in the same period last year.

Business leaders inside Russia are sounding the alarm bell. Citing the cost of credit and shortages of labor, companies have significantly cut back on investment. Russia’s economy minister has warned that the country is on the verge of slipping into recession if monetary policy doesn’t change soon.

In response to the warnings, Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate to 20 percent in June, and lowered it again to 18 percent in July. But that is still too high to jumpstart the economy. Russia likes to think of itself as a major power but it doesn’t act like one. Those high interest rates are typically observed in poor countries with dysfunctional economies.

According to Reuters, Russia’s economy grew from less than $200 billion in 1999 to $1.7 trillion in 2008. The nominal GDP then increased to around $2.2 trillion 2013, the year before its illegal annexation of Crimea. That was when Russia’s isolation began. The country’s GDP has been stuck at that $2.2 trillion level since then. Talk about a person wasting his prime years due to self-destructive behavior. Over that same 2014-2024 period, U.S. GDP grew from $17.6 to $29.2 trillion, while China’s GDP expanded from $10.5 to $18.7 trillion.

Unfortunately, the longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the more Ukrainians who will lose their lives. Ideally, the West and its allies should apply even more punitive sanctions on Russia to quickly suffocate its economy and by extension its war machine. However, those who say that Putin can sustain the war for several more years and outlast the West should pay closer attention to what is happening inside Russia. Even without any new sanctions, the Russian economy will almost certainly collapse from the deepening rot in the not-too-distant future if the current trend continues.

It must have taken decades, but that is exactly what happened to the Soviet Union. Russia needs another Mikhail Gorbachev to come to its rescue before it’s too late.