TheImpossible Has Become the Plausible

In the worldof ultra high-stakes diplomacy there are scenarios that defy even the mostoutrageous B-movie plots. Then again, what the world has witnessed regardlessof political leadership hue, is that the impossible has become the plausible.

Russia maynot be the only country or even party who has plans to create a false flag – apretext – for invading Ukraine. Many scenarios have been hypothesized such asskirmishes in the Donbas region or trouble on the Ukrainian-Belarus border.

However, noone has mentioned the most audacious one – the sabotage of one of the gaspipelines on Ukrainian territory. This would be the terrestrial version of theUSS Maine which exploded in Havana Harbor on 15 February 1898 that greased theskids to the start of Spanish-American War.

This hyper-sensitive,economic and symbolic pretext might occur during the initial hours of theinvasion or during the initial days which would justify Russia’s increasedintensity against not only the Ukrainian armed forces but the civilians too.

The Flamethat Ignites the Gas Leak

Russia

Russia isthe obvious “Usual Suspect”. Sabotaging a gas pipeline would achieve several objectivessimultaneously. Under authorized orders by Putin, Russia can immediately place theblame on the Ukrainian government that would justify an invasion to protectRussian investment and economic lifeline in the export of gas to Europeancountries. The Russian public relations angle would be that it would seemludicrous to blow up its own gas pipeline, the key to its key export revenue.

The other isanti-Putin elements in the Kremlin. In the Russian version of OperationValkyrie, the invasion itself is a false flag in which collaborating generals provideunauthorized orders to sabotage a gas pipeline. The act is psychologically damagingto Putin who now knows he has formidable adversaries inside the Kremlin and adistraction from his wartime operations. As the war goes disastrously wrong forRussia it might produce cracks in the Russian leadership justifying a palacecoup, Putin is arrested and Russian forces halt their advance and exit Ukraine.

Ukraine

There areseveral different elements in Ukraine who would profit enormously by sabotaginga gas pipeline. The pro-Russian Ukrainians, whether independently or underdirect orders from Moscow, sabotage the gas pipeline to fuel and inspire theRussian war machine.

The otherpossibility is that patriotic yet delusional Ukrainians who believe thatUS/Nato will put boots on the ground on Ukrainian territory to directly fightthe Russian army or at least take a more aggressive action than merely surveillancesupport and arms suppliers.

The MilitaryIndustrial Complex

This is aworldwide confederation of arms dealers whose smell of money holds priorityover the smell of death. Using mercenaries to sabotage a gas pipeline would sowconfusion and provoke accusations amongst the belligerents and supporting cast.Even if the mercenaries are captured and/or identified, the accusations anddenials would run rampant as to which party hired them.

The biggestland war in Europe since WW II represents the biggest opportunities for the militaryindustrial complex in decades for the sale of armaments, defensive andoffensive, high-tech and low-tech. Furthermore, in a highly unstable, post-warenvironment, many countries worldwide will be clamoring to purchase arms becauseof similar situations in their regions either to defend themselves against alarger neighbor or invade a smaller one.

For reference purposes, the following chart entitled The GasPipelines Linking Russia and Europe provided by JP Morgan via TheEconomist present an excellent visual as to how the major pipelines linkingRussia to Europe are routed.

“No HonorAmong Thieves” or Autocrats for That Matter

The tigerand the bear – both apex alpha predators – by their very nature are incapableof sharing the mountaintop of anti-US autocracy. For this reason, I believethat the continental-sized egos of presidents Putin and Xi don’t allow co-leadershipin their efforts to challenge the west.

A war inUkraine would shake the Chinese because Russia has increasing used its vastly upgradedand modern military in increasingly larger operations and will have gainedenormous experience on the battlefield. Chinese checkbook diplomacy can only goso far as Putin will indeed have the upper hand with the military “muscle”.

This might mean that China may be forced to engage in backdoorgeopolitical maneuvering secretly seeking some arrangement with the west  to counter Russian aggression.

One tactic for China is to purchase far less gas from Russia which wouldrapidly deplete Russia’s “economic fortress” of $630 billion established towithstand draconian western sanctions. This economic squeeze may force them to offermore favorable terms with US/Nato on a variety of matters.

In turn the US/Nato turns a blind eye or delivers of slap on the wristfor future Chinese aggressions. Or China gains considerably more market sharein Europe by extending its Belt & Road Initiative with minimal US/Europeaninterference.

The Europeans might feel that it’s better (and healthier) to be beatenby a wallet than a weapon. The Chinese response to Russian claims of “betrayal”,in the ruthless jungle world of geopolitics, like Don Corleone in the Godfatherexplained, “It’s nothing personal, just business.”

Conclusion

Putin may beso laser focused on his grand scheme of reuniting the Russian speaking peoplesin sovereign countries he believes were hijacked by the Us/Nato, that he isexceptionally vulnerable to a series of attacks from his enemies: internallywithin the Kremlin walls and his autocratic counterparts in Beijing.

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The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient,beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments ongeopolitical dynamics and global urban security.