Part 4: Leading vs. Lagging: How to Predict Your Revenue Before It Happens

By Cara Silletto, CSP

Are you looking at the right numbers? Most speakers look at their bank account at the end of the month to see how they did. This is a Lagging Metric. It tells you what happened in the past, but it does nothing to help you predict or change the future.

To build a foolproof business, you need a Scorecard filled with Leading Metrics.

What is a Leading Metric?

A leading metric is an activity that happens today that predicts a result tomorrow.

• Lagging: Total closes and revenue received last month. (They’re in the past.)
• Leading: Number of sales calls and outbound outreach you completed this week. (If your pipeline isn’t healthy (see below), you have time to CHANGE these numbers next week to boost your pipeline for the next month’s metrics to be stronger.)

The Speaker’s Scorecard

We track these metrics weekly to keep our finger on the pulse of our business:

1. New Inbound Leads: How many people reached out to you? Yay!
2. Outbound Outreach: How many “warm” calls or emails did you complete? (Preferably not cold, because they have a super low win rate!)
3. Sales Meetings: How many sales discussions did you actually have?
4. Value of Quotes Sent: How much did you quote to prospects? (Once you give a price or fee range to a prospect, that’s considered a quote sent. And while we note in our CRM the entire range discussed, we typically list the lowest price quoted here on the scorecard, so as not to inflate our pipeline. The example would be, if we quoted $10,000-15,000 to the prospect, we would note that range in the CRM, but list $10,000 on the scorecard. As a point of reference, many successful speakers I know close 70% or more of what they quote after a call with the prospect, not including bureau holds or random email quotes, but that percent depends greatly on various factors, and it should get stronger the longer you’re in the field.)
5. Value of Agreements Sent: What’s the total value of the agreements you sent out for signature? (These are nearly 100% closed, but sometimes a veto or other catastrophe happens before they sign.)
6. Value of Closed New Business: How much work did you win that was actually signed in an agreement? (A verbal “yes” does not count.)
7. Pipeline Value: The total value of all active quotes and contracts out waiting for signature. (This must be cleaned up over time as you win/lost gigs.)

Why Pipeline Value Matters

Your pipeline value is your crystal ball. If you know you need to close $75,000 this quarter to stay on track and hit your goals, but your pipeline currently only has $60,000 in quoted business that MIGHT close, you know right now that you are in trouble.

Instead of panicking in week 12 of the quarter, a scorecard allows you to adjust your behavior in week two or five or eight to go after more leads, so you can have a decent quarter. Knowing these numbers means you see the dip coming, and can ramp up your outbound outreach to fill the gap.

The AI Shift

The old way of speaking involved a lot of cold calling. But AI is changing the game. Event planners are becoming more skeptical of polished videos and websites because anyone can look like a speaker with AI now.

Moving forward, the most valuable metric will be your relationship history. This is why your scorecard must include outreach to past clients. They know you’re real, they know you’re good, and they are your highest-probability wins in an AI-saturated market.

Many groups will bring back the same keynote speaker after 3-4 years, if you have new insights to share. So, track that relationship, keep in touch, and set reminders of when they go into speaker selection mode so you can be at the right place at the right time, even if that’s next year!

Read the 7-Part Series:

Part 1: The Solopreneur’s Paradox: Why Discipline is the Only Path to Freedom

Part 2: The DWMQA Cadence: How to Prevent Your Business from Breaking

Part 3: Your CRM Is Your Satellite Brain

Cara Silletto, MBA, CSP, has been a speaker/trainer focused on workforce retention for nearly 14 years. She loves using her unique mechanical mindset to help speakers create a well-oiled operations machine and find a foolproof flow that allows them to be successful and still spend nights and weekends with their family and friends instead of their laptops!