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Covid Vaccine - The Perfect Cover to Repeal Privacy Laws
From:
Albert Goldson --  Cerulean Council Albert Goldson -- Cerulean Council
For Immediate Release:
Dateline: New York , NY
Tuesday, November 17, 2020

 

     

Once in a Century Opportunity

In the near future the greatest tag & release program in human history will be underway with the Covid-19 vaccine unabashedly designated as the delivery system in an effort to “tag” every human on the planet. Why? Because during the last decades the most valuable asset is information particularly on the citizenry and consumer. What better way to literally insert a tracking system, whether medically or administratively through registration, particularly since each type of vaccine will have its unique signature for verification purposes.

The compilation of such intimate data to enhance their present-day database represents the ultimate in governmental and corporate “wet” dreams that would normally require decades, assuming through legal means, for any intel service to achieve. Because power is apolitical no government or large corporate entity will let this rarest of opportunities pass by.

Global leadership will become further entrenched as the condescending paternal dictatorial benefactor that will enable near real-time monitoring of its citizenry and demographic change. With an application of AI it may soon achieve predictive abilities.

Power is Apolitical

Applied under the cover of altruism but need people to get economies going, money. According to the following chart entitled How Close is the World to a Coronavirus Vaccine? provided by The World Health Organization and presented by Statista, an online information firm, 155 are in pre-clinical testing, 39 are in Phase II, 18 are in Phase II and 11 are in Phase III.


The creation of a global database utilizing samples containing DNA samples provide a standard intel lingua franca encompassing of billions of law-abiding citizens. Court battles domestically and internationally over the privacy rights of forcibly acquiring DNA samples is almost moot since this genetic information will already be on file in one way or another after vaccine inoculation.

The Costly Cost-Free Antidote

As the saying goes, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” The same applies to vaccines. The vaccine itself may be free or offered at low cost but receiving one (or refusal) comes at a steep price of personal freedom from legitimate and illegitimate sources. The primary benefactors are governments, the medical community; Big Pharma and insurance companies. The latter is most anxious to exploit this data for the purposes of monetizing your data through higher premiums & fees (or even denial of medical coverage) because of some genetic defect or risk as determined by their so-called proprietary analysis.

Savage Seduction

Corporate-owned media plays a huge role in stirring up more hysteria as a marketing tool to solicit greater demand for people to get inoculated. It’s not far-fetched that corporate public relations specialists are already reprogramming consumer behavior through their brand of psychological and technological devilry. Furthermore the present-day explosive nationwide Covid surges provide the marketing catalyst with an increasingly desperate citizenry and willingness to accept a vaccine while waiving their privacy rights. Already this is borne out in the following chart provided by CodeFuel, a firm that provides behavioral studies, with respect to the public’s willingness to surrender personal data specific to the pandemic:


The inevitable doubters, conspiracy theorists, “stragglers” and obstinate holdouts, might be convinced to accept inoculation through monetary incentives or perhaps through disincentives in which employers would legally refuse to hire those who have not taken the vaccine even if they exclusively work remotely.

This leads to a legal and possibly constitutional conundrum because under the right circumstances “voluntary” has a fluid meaning and open interpretation. As is the case with human nature there will never be 100% worldwide inoculation. However governments and corporate can implement legally defendable, pre-pandemic discriminatory practices to those who are not inoculated even with negative test results. The reason is that this non-inoculated group still represents a risk to others since vaccines are never 100% effective.

This holdout group may face discriminatory practices for jobs, housing and loans. Even those wealthy individuals with unlimited time & resources to legally challenge these “new normal” practices are going against governmental and corporate law departments that are specifically designed to defend the organization, not to uphold individual citizen rights.

Furthermore because Covid-19 is a novel virus its peculiarities are not well known with many mysteries to be discovered well afterward the initial vaccine is administered. For this reason booster shots may be required giving governments and corporations another opportunity to capture those that they missed the first time around.

The Forever Vaccine

Like the US Forever Stamps this technology programmed upon inoculation or follow-through medical visits provides medical info, these genetic markers may be passed to the next generations. It’s the same way ancestry firms use your DNA, which you provided voluntarily, to provide potential (best guess probabilities) health risks. That means your yet to be born offspring will be automatically “tagged” through you going forward representing the deepest personal information intrusion imaginable.

Coronavirus Conspiracy

The following chart entitled The Most Common Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories provided by Cornell University and presented by Statista. The accompanying text to the chart stated:

“The Cornell University conducted an analysis of Covid-19 misinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories circulating in the media and its findings were published by The NY Times. The researchers analyzed 38 million articles published in the English language globally between January 01 and May 26, finding that 1.1 million contained misinformation. That represents just under three percent of the entire Covid-19 conversation.”



 Interestingly and perhaps disturbingly the discussion for what purposes will the information garnered from the distribution and inoculation processes has not yet emerged into the public domain by the mainstream media.

Alternative Dark Sources

Finally for those health conscious citizens who want the vaccine but are adamant about surrendering personal information or even being identified by any organization an alternative may be the black market, notably through rouge medical professionals and even on the dark web. The trade-off risk is the willingness to trust an unverified, unregulated third-party source.

An equally risky alternative is unknowingly receiving a watered-down version of the vaccine or simply a placebo which offers little or no protection a lethal risk for those high risk individuals.

The lower end risk is to eschew taking the vaccine altogether yet illegally purchase an authorized vaccine certification.

Logistical & Distribution Nightmare

Despite a highly interconnected, globalized world there are enormous challenges in the logistics and distribution sectors because the vaccine is for a global pandemic of 7.7 billion people instead of an epidemic impacting merely a region. The challenges are the following:

  • ·         There are established and efficient pharmaceutical distribution networks. The problem is the massive supply of vaccines entering a distribution pipeline designed for a fraction of this amount will result in epic delays and backlogs.
  • ·         New distribution hubs to handle the increased volume are required and initially appear to increase efficiency rather operationally they will initially complicate the distribution process because of their novelty.
  • ·         The distribution of vaccine to other than first-world regions which have smaller, less efficient distribution networks with limited specialized storage facilities (if any) and trained medical personnel to handle the vaccine will inevitably encounter unique problems resulting in waste.
  • ·         The top priority of Covid-19 vaccine distribution will “crowd out” the regular distribution of prescription drugs for an extended time resulting in shortages which will adversely impact patients who rely on them for their daily health (particularly for treatment of blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes). Imagine yourself in your car having to wait at the crossroads while an endless line of law enforcement escorted emergency medical vehicles drive past allowing only a limited number of non-emergency vehicles to pass through at a time.
  • ·         The aforementioned problems may force consumers to seek sources who may provide inferior or even dangerous substitutes exacerbating the overwhelmed medical systems with non-Covid cases.

Whether distributed legally or illegally this is the biggest drug deal in human history, fraught with risks, with the ominous divulgence of personal privacy issues attached. Inevitably, any drug dealer and every party in the distribution chain wants to know their “customers” intimately to better maintain and potential expand their market share.


Copyright 2020 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.

    

Once in a Century Opportunity

In the near future the greatest tag & release program in human history will be underway with the Covid-19 vaccine unabashedly designated as the delivery system in an effort to “tag” every human on the planet. Why? Because during the last decades the most valuable asset is information particularly on the citizenry and consumer. What better way to literally insert a tracking system, whether medically or administratively through registration, particularly since each type of vaccine will have its unique signature for verification purposes.

The compilation of such intimate data to enhance their present-day database represents the ultimate in governmental and corporate “wet” dreams that would normally require decades, assuming through legal means, for any intel service to achieve. Because power is apolitical no government or large corporate entity will let this rarest of opportunities pass by.

Global leadership will become further entrenched as the condescending paternal dictatorial benefactor that will enable near real-time monitoring of its citizenry and demographic change. With an application of AI it may soon achieve predictive abilities.

Power is Apolitical

Applied under the cover of altruism but need people to get economies going, money. According to the following chart entitled How Close is the World to a Coronavirus Vaccine? provided by The World Health Organization and presented by Statista, an online information firm, 155 are in pre-clinical testing, 39 are in Phase II, 18 are in Phase II and 11 are in Phase III.


The creation of a global database utilizing samples containing DNA samples provide a standard intel lingua franca encompassing of billions of law-abiding citizens. Court battles domestically and internationally over the privacy rights of forcibly acquiring DNA samples is almost moot since this genetic information will already be on file in one way or another after vaccine inoculation.

The Costly Cost-Free Antidote

As the saying goes, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” The same applies to vaccines. The vaccine itself may be free or offered at low cost but receiving one (or refusal) comes at a steep price of personal freedom from legitimate and illegitimate sources. The primary benefactors are governments, the medical community; Big Pharma and insurance companies. The latter is most anxious to exploit this data for the purposes of monetizing your data through higher premiums & fees (or even denial of medical coverage) because of some genetic defect or risk as determined by their so-called proprietary analysis.

Savage Seduction

Corporate-owned media plays a huge role in stirring up more hysteria as a marketing tool to solicit greater demand for people to get inoculated. It’s not far-fetched that corporate public relations specialists are already reprogramming consumer behavior through their brand of psychological and technological devilry. Furthermore the present-day explosive nationwide Covid surges provide the marketing catalyst with an increasingly desperate citizenry and willingness to accept a vaccine while waiving their privacy rights. Already this is borne out in the following chart provided by CodeFuel, a firm that provides behavioral studies, with respect to the public’s willingness to surrender personal data specific to the pandemic:


The inevitable doubters, conspiracy theorists, “stragglers” and obstinate holdouts, might be convinced to accept inoculation through monetary incentives or perhaps through disincentives in which employers would legally refuse to hire those who have not taken the vaccine even if they exclusively work remotely.

This leads to a legal and possibly constitutional conundrum because under the right circumstances “voluntary” has a fluid meaning and open interpretation. As is the case with human nature there will never be 100% worldwide inoculation. However governments and corporate can implement legally defendable, pre-pandemic discriminatory practices to those who are not inoculated even with negative test results. The reason is that this non-inoculated group still represents a risk to others since vaccines are never 100% effective.

This holdout group may face discriminatory practices for jobs, housing and loans. Even those wealthy individuals with unlimited time & resources to legally challenge these “new normal” practices are going against governmental and corporate law departments that are specifically designed to defend the organization, not to uphold individual citizen rights.

Furthermore because Covid-19 is a novel virus its peculiarities are not well known with many mysteries to be discovered well afterward the initial vaccine is administered. For this reason booster shots may be required giving governments and corporations another opportunity to capture those that they missed the first time around.

The Forever Vaccine

Like the US Forever Stamps this technology programmed upon inoculation or follow-through medical visits provides medical info, these genetic markers may be passed to the next generations. It’s the same way ancestry firms use your DNA, which you provided voluntarily, to provide potential (best guess probabilities) health risks. That means your yet to be born offspring will be automatically “tagged” through you going forward representing the deepest personal information intrusion imaginable.

Coronavirus Conspiracy

The following chart entitled The Most Common Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories provided by Cornell University and presented by Statista. The accompanying text to the chart stated:

“The Cornell University conducted an analysis of Covid-19 misinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories circulating in the media and its findings were published by The NY Times. The researchers analyzed 38 million articles published in the English language globally between January 01 and May 26, finding that 1.1 million contained misinformation. That represents just under three percent of the entire Covid-19 conversation.”



 Interestingly and perhaps disturbingly the discussion for what purposes will the information garnered from the distribution and inoculation processes has not yet emerged into the public domain by the mainstream media.

Alternative Dark Sources

Finally for those health conscious citizens who want the vaccine but are adamant about surrendering personal information or even being identified by any organization an alternative may be the black market, notably through rouge medical professionals and even on the dark web. The trade-off risk is the willingness to trust an unverified, unregulated third-party source.

An equally risky alternative is unknowingly receiving a watered-down version of the vaccine or simply a placebo which offers little or no protection a lethal risk for those high risk individuals.

The lower end risk is to eschew taking the vaccine altogether yet illegally purchase an authorized vaccine certification.

Logistical & Distribution Nightmare

Despite a highly interconnected, globalized world there are enormous challenges in the logistics and distribution sectors because the vaccine is for a global pandemic of 7.7 billion people instead of an epidemic impacting merely a region. The challenges are the following:

  • ·         There are established and efficient pharmaceutical distribution networks. The problem is the massive supply of vaccines entering a distribution pipeline designed for a fraction of this amount will result in epic delays and backlogs.
  • ·         New distribution hubs to handle the increased volume are required and initially appear to increase efficiency rather operationally they will initially complicate the distribution process because of their novelty.
  • ·         The distribution of vaccine to other than first-world regions which have smaller, less efficient distribution networks with limited specialized storage facilities (if any) and trained medical personnel to handle the vaccine will inevitably encounter unique problems resulting in waste.
  • ·         The top priority of Covid-19 vaccine distribution will “crowd out” the regular distribution of prescription drugs for an extended time resulting in shortages which will adversely impact patients who rely on them for their daily health (particularly for treatment of blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes). Imagine yourself in your car having to wait at the crossroads while an endless line of law enforcement escorted emergency medical vehicles drive past allowing only a limited number of non-emergency vehicles to pass through at a time.
  • ·         The aforementioned problems may force consumers to seek sources who may provide inferior or even dangerous substitutes exacerbating the overwhelmed medical systems with non-Covid cases.

Whether distributed legally or illegally this is the biggest drug deal in human history, fraught with risks, with the ominous divulgence of personal privacy issues attached. Inevitably, any drug dealer and every party in the distribution chain wants to know their “customers” intimately to better maintain and potential expand their market share.


Copyright 2020 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.

   

Once in a Century Opportunity

In the near future the greatest tag & release program in human history will be underway with the Covid-19 vaccine unabashedly designated as the delivery system in an effort to “tag” every human on the planet. Why? Because during the last decades the most valuable asset is information particularly on the citizenry and consumer. What better way to literally insert a tracking system, whether medically or administratively through registration, particularly since each type of vaccine will have its unique signature for verification purposes.

The compilation of such intimate data to enhance their present-day database represents the ultimate in governmental and corporate “wet” dreams that would normally require decades, assuming through legal means, for any intel service to achieve. Because power is apolitical no government or large corporate entity will let this rarest of opportunities pass by.

Global leadership will become further entrenched as the condescending paternal dictatorial benefactor that will enable near real-time monitoring of its citizenry and demographic change. With an application of AI it may soon achieve predictive abilities.

Power is Apolitical

Applied under the cover of altruism but need people to get economies going, money. According to the following chart entitled How Close is the World to a Coronavirus Vaccine? provided by The World Health Organization and presented by Statista, an online information firm, 155 are in pre-clinical testing, 39 are in Phase II, 18 are in Phase II and 11 are in Phase III.


The creation of a global database utilizing samples containing DNA samples provide a standard intel lingua franca encompassing of billions of law-abiding citizens. Court battles domestically and internationally over the privacy rights of forcibly acquiring DNA samples is almost moot since this genetic information will already be on file in one way or another after vaccine inoculation.

The Costly Cost-Free Antidote

As the saying goes, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” The same applies to vaccines. The vaccine itself may be free or offered at low cost but receiving one (or refusal) comes at a steep price of personal freedom from legitimate and illegitimate sources. The primary benefactors are governments, the medical community; Big Pharma and insurance companies. The latter is most anxious to exploit this data for the purposes of monetizing your data through higher premiums & fees (or even denial of medical coverage) because of some genetic defect or risk as determined by their so-called proprietary analysis.

Savage Seduction

Corporate-owned media plays a huge role in stirring up more hysteria as a marketing tool to solicit greater demand for people to get inoculated. It’s not far-fetched that corporate public relations specialists are already reprogramming consumer behavior through their brand of psychological and technological devilry. Furthermore the present-day explosive nationwide Covid surges provide the marketing catalyst with an increasingly desperate citizenry and willingness to accept a vaccine while waiving their privacy rights. Already this is borne out in the following chart provided by CodeFuel, a firm that provides behavioral studies, with respect to the public’s willingness to surrender personal data specific to the pandemic:


The inevitable doubters, conspiracy theorists, “stragglers” and obstinate holdouts, might be convinced to accept inoculation through monetary incentives or perhaps through disincentives in which employers would legally refuse to hire those who have not taken the vaccine even if they exclusively work remotely.

This leads to a legal and possibly constitutional conundrum because under the right circumstances “voluntary” has a fluid meaning and open interpretation. As is the case with human nature there will never be 100% worldwide inoculation. However governments and corporate can implement legally defendable, pre-pandemic discriminatory practices to those who are not inoculated even with negative test results. The reason is that this non-inoculated group still represents a risk to others since vaccines are never 100% effective.

This holdout group may face discriminatory practices for jobs, housing and loans. Even those wealthy individuals with unlimited time & resources to legally challenge these “new normal” practices are going against governmental and corporate law departments that are specifically designed to defend the organization, not to uphold individual citizen rights.

Furthermore because Covid-19 is a novel virus its peculiarities are not well known with many mysteries to be discovered well afterward the initial vaccine is administered. For this reason booster shots may be required giving governments and corporations another opportunity to capture those that they missed the first time around.

The Forever Vaccine

Like the US Forever Stamps this technology programmed upon inoculation or follow-through medical visits provides medical info, these genetic markers may be passed to the next generations. It’s the same way ancestry firms use your DNA, which you provided voluntarily, to provide potential (best guess probabilities) health risks. That means your yet to be born offspring will be automatically “tagged” through you going forward representing the deepest personal information intrusion imaginable.

Coronavirus Conspiracy

The following chart entitled The Most Common Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories provided by Cornell University and presented by Statista. The accompanying text to the chart stated:

“The Cornell University conducted an analysis of Covid-19 misinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories circulating in the media and its findings were published by The NY Times. The researchers analyzed 38 million articles published in the English language globally between January 01 and May 26, finding that 1.1 million contained misinformation. That represents just under three percent of the entire Covid-19 conversation.”



 Interestingly and perhaps disturbingly the discussion for what purposes will the information garnered from the distribution and inoculation processes has not yet emerged into the public domain by the mainstream media.

Alternative Dark Sources

Finally for those health conscious citizens who want the vaccine but are adamant about surrendering personal information or even being identified by any organization an alternative may be the black market, notably through rouge medical professionals and even on the dark web. The trade-off risk is the willingness to trust an unverified, unregulated third-party source.

An equally risky alternative is unknowingly receiving a watered-down version of the vaccine or simply a placebo which offers little or no protection a lethal risk for those high risk individuals.

The lower end risk is to eschew taking the vaccine altogether yet illegally purchase an authorized vaccine certification.

Logistical & Distribution Nightmare

Despite a highly interconnected, globalized world there are enormous challenges in the logistics and distribution sectors because the vaccine is for a global pandemic of 7.7 billion people instead of an epidemic impacting merely a region. The challenges are the following:

  • ·         There are established and efficient pharmaceutical distribution networks. The problem is the massive supply of vaccines entering a distribution pipeline designed for a fraction of this amount will result in epic delays and backlogs.
  • ·         New distribution hubs to handle the increased volume are required and initially appear to increase efficiency rather operationally they will initially complicate the distribution process because of their novelty.
  • ·         The distribution of vaccine to other than first-world regions which have smaller, less efficient distribution networks with limited specialized storage facilities (if any) and trained medical personnel to handle the vaccine will inevitably encounter unique problems resulting in waste.
  • ·         The top priority of Covid-19 vaccine distribution will “crowd out” the regular distribution of prescription drugs for an extended time resulting in shortages which will adversely impact patients who rely on them for their daily health (particularly for treatment of blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes). Imagine yourself in your car having to wait at the crossroads while an endless line of law enforcement escorted emergency medical vehicles drive past allowing only a limited number of non-emergency vehicles to pass through at a time.
  • ·         The aforementioned problems may force consumers to seek sources who may provide inferior or even dangerous substitutes exacerbating the overwhelmed medical systems with non-Covid cases.

Whether distributed legally or illegally this is the biggest drug deal in human history, fraught with risks, with the ominous divulgence of personal privacy issues attached. Inevitably, any drug dealer and every party in the distribution chain wants to know their “customers” intimately to better maintain and potential expand their market share.


Copyright 2020 Cerulean Council LLC

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.


Albert Goldson, Executive Director of the think-tank Cerulean Council, provides his risk assessment of the Turkish perspective with respect to the heightened tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and exacerbated by the recent terrorist killings in Paris in the article entitled, Tensions Run High Between France and Turkey, published 1 November 2020 in The Millennial Source.


Supplemental information supporting this perspective is as follows:

Turkey Overview

For several years Erdogan has sought to be the leading voice in the Muslim world. He has leveraged Turkey’s advantages:

• Large population of 82 million (2nd only to Germany in Europe).
• Shared border with Europe.
• NATO member with the 2nd largest army in the organization.
• One of the few officially secular and democratic Muslim countries even though in present-day practice Turkey is less secular and politically more illiberal.
• Multi-generation of European-born citizens of Turkish origin.

Inflammatory Verbal Jousting

Erdogan’s brusque rebuke with respect to Macron’s insensitive comment on equating Islam with terrorism is to underscore not only Macron rather the Eu leadership’s continued ignorance and racism on Muslims and reluctance to engage in a genuine understanding of the Muslim world.

The alleged racism against Muslims by the French government may have merit. In response to riots in the banlieues several years ago, the French government has institutionalized racism by codifying many earlier state of emergency decrees which are crafted in such a way in that it targets the Muslim communities.

For this reason Erdogan has been able to take the leadership role in the Muslim world by creating a united front. On the other hand Eu countries have rallied around and supported France’s decisions to target the Muslim community to root out potential terrorists. This has created a dangerous political “Mexican standoff” between a Christian Europe and the Muslim world.

The Eu block support on the matter may be more durable than the world Muslim community because the Eu is an institutionalized and integrated geopolitical block.

The Muslim world is politically and geographically diverse with numerous groups within the Muslim community: Turkish, Iran (Persian), Arab (Middle East and North Africa), south and southeast Asian countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia each of whom have distinct historical economic and political relationships with Eu countries.

Furthermore there are “hard” political alliances and rivalries in the Middle East. For example: Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads for years because of Erdogan’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (a threat to Saudi Arabia) and support of Qatar.

Eastern Mediterranean Hydrocarbons

A confluence of events is contributing to the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Greece in their pursuit for energy self-sufficiency and dominance.

The mainstream media is supporting western governments’ contention portraying Turkey as the aggressor in their attempt at an energy power grab through naval intimidation.

Although Turkey has the largest economy in the region and the second largest military in NATO, they have been deliberately excluded from critical agreements which would make them equal partners with respect to dispute resolutions and access to resources in the region.

The legal discriminatory agreements that are politically isolating Turkey are the following:

• The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which Turkey is not a signatory. This body is called upon to resolve maritime disputes.
• The newly formed EastMed Gas Forum, referred to as the Opec of Mediterranean gas, includes as members Egypt, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Greece, Cyprus and Italy, an oddball membership all of whom have compatible economic interests in gas exploration in this region, not necessarily compatible political interests amongst themselves.
• Turkey is a NATO member, the second largest, and a European country, it is not an EU member and for this reason cannot benefit from Eu agreements.

Interestingly the Turkish energy exploratory vessel is exploring in areas where no gas reserves have been discovered. However because Turkey does not have rights to extract gas reserves, this particular type of vessel’s presence has been challenged by Greek military vessels.

For this reason any discussions with respect to disputed maritime zones is hotly adversarial rather than diplomatic member-to-member conversations towards a mutually satisfying resolution.

Copyright 2020 Cerulean Council

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.


 

 

The Dragon | Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

Around 2017 the Chinese government, overwhelmed by relentless criticism on its domestic and foreign policies, decided to push back aggressively in the diplomatic arena with Wolf Warrior verbiage. The term “Wolf Warrior” comes from the highly successful movie series of that name that features a Rambo-like character who defends Chinese citizens and humanitarian projects worldwide.

Eschewing diplomatic niceties by turning the other cheek and figuring enough is enough, Chinese diplomats worldwide, with the tacit permission from Beijing, are responding in equal brusque measure. The Chinese government has been incensed over the double-standard and sometimes blatant racism when they establish commercial and military agreements worldwide which are viewed as economic enslavement while western commercial and military agreements are viewed as development.

The Eagle | Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

Interestingly the same year China initiated its Wolf Warrior diplomatic style, Trump began his blunt, aggressive Rambo-style verbiage against worldwide criticism of American decades-old policies which he inherited. Counter-intuitively, whether by design or default, despite almost four years of bombastic remarks Trump has kept the US out of military conflicts. Refreshingly America is the punching bag that punches back. Perhaps verbal salvos are just as effective as military salvos but with zero deaths and collateral damage

Trump is far more comfortable with corporate wars not military ones and has managed nicely to avoid the latter. The withdrawal or the reduction in military force has put the brakes on America’s creeping unsustainable overreach which is historically the economic kryptonite (bankruptcy) of empires past to support an over-stretched military. 

Unlike his Chinese counterpart who has initiated a broad-based tactic, Trump has crafted America’s Wolf Warrior style around himself and a handful of high-ranking diplomats. This tactic generates public awareness to long-standing, economically draining uncompetitive policies and trade agreements under previous administrations which have badly hurt the American worker.

It’s not a question whether Trump is successful in his foreign policy initiatives rather how this aggressive tactic is one of necessity to engage in immediate dialogue to bring about change. Furthermore this “in-your-face” tactic not a sign of a dying empire, rather a transformative rebirth in which America will no longer be held politically and economically hostage by a collective of spoiled nations whose survival rely almost exclusively on our military umbrella.

Euro-Slackers

The Europeans may think of Trump as uncouth and brutish, which indeed he is, but he’s breaking unwritten protocols and establishing a precedent for future American administrations regardless of party affiliation. This street talk on the world stage has psychologically shaken up the staid and often smug European establishment many of whom believe that there’s no urgency in halting Russian and Chinese encroachment everywhere particularly in cyber-space; or that the US will forever provide a robust military umbrella.

US and China | Kindred Yet Incompatible Spirits

The timing of how the US and China have implemented this new diplomatic style independently is telling. They are the largest economies in the world who are competing for hegemonic dominance everywhere. Because there’s no longer a sole source of economic power, the rest of the world are playing the US and China against each other.

There’s a thin yet distinct line between disrespect and critical discussion. China justifiably has a thinner skin than the US however everyone knows the location of those lines. Disrespect has it limits. This means that the US and China have more in common than originally imagined on every level: private, corporate and governmental.

Each one’s Wolf Warrior diplomacy tactics are running simultaneously but in parallel. Though even an informal collaboration between the two on this matter would be politically impossible, the spirit of “professional courtesy” is aligned with respect to soft-pedaling criticism of a mutual third party who has given them both unnecessary grief.

Future American Geopolitical Real Politik

If the Democrats win the upcoming elections it would behoove them to continue and refine Trump’s no-nonsense American diplomatic Warrior Wolf style otherwise the momentum will be lost with foreign slackers who revel in the US doing the heavy-lifting and avoiding real responsibility for decades. The hammer has been added to the diplomatic toolkit for purposes of rethinking and re-setting relationships.

One crisis to apply this tactic are the most insidious crisis such as climate change and related issues such as supply chains. The pandemic has exposed the fact that these global organizations were ill-equipped from an organizational and decision-making perspective to respond swiftly. For this reason withholding funding or membership withdrawal applied cleverly can be effective in motivating behavioral change in these international institutions to reorganize and become efficient and effective.

The usual diplomatic language has failed to meet the urgency for a robust and genuine global collaboration to tackle climate change which is why unvarnished tough talk at the highest levels is required.

Taming the Linguistic Taboo

This new 21st century governmental foreign policy public relations playbook practiced tactically at the highest levels can compel counter-parties to overhaul their sclerotic procedures and accelerate means to provide solutions to critical issues like climate change and other urgent matters.

As hyper-aggressive hedge fund owner Bobby Axelrod in the popular TV series “Billions” says, “No one walks away from a negotiation happy.” There will always be [back-door] political deals but reaching solutions can still be achieved by overcoming administrative and operational dysfunction.

In sum the pandemic represents a fresh start - a wake-up call – to be better prepared for the inevitable future crisis. Perhaps future crisis may not as daunting as the present-day one; insidiously they may be far less intense but diverse occurring in short-order creating a compounding effect.

 

Copyright 2020 Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based think-tank and advisory service that provides prescient beyond-the-horizon contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on energy investments, geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.

The pandemic has triggered de-urbanization in the US as residents with financial means seek to decamp the hyper-density, high cost and increasing violent crime of urban areas to a more tranquil and safer landscape facilitated by the magic of remote working.

The Unmasking of the Glamour of Urban Living

During the 2000s and 2010s urban living was viewed as the new long-term future as Smart Cities would offer all the promised conveniences of modern 21st century living. Mass transit was aggressively promoted as environmentally friendly to reduce the carbon footprint supported by the conversion of many downtown streets into walking plazas, and construction of new buildings and conversion of old buildings into green offices and residences. Finally low crime rates made this decision a no brainer and powerful allure for newcomers, domestic and international, rural and suburban.

The model works quite well under ideal economic conditions but frays rapidly under stress. The pandemic has shattered the model because urban density facilitates the virus’ ability to spread. Large protests against corrupt & incompetent governments, and aggressive law enforcement applying sometimes violent and discriminatory tactics degraded the urban quality of life turning even upscale urban areas into cauldrons of chaos.

Even with the development and distribution of a safe vaccine on the horizon, urban citizens are decamping to small urban cities because successful full-time remote work – encouraged by their employers - eliminates commuting expenses and time-consuming hassles. Those left out are essential workers whose on-site presence is required.

This sudden exodus strongly infers that most urban dwellers not only lack the confidence of a positive near-term future in urban living but perhaps never liked living in the city in the first place. Certainly there are many urban dwellers who have the financial wherewithal to leave at any time but they’ve decided to stay.

This trend bodes badly for large urban cities because regardless how they reinvent themselves they are unlikely to woe back the departed nor approach their pre-pandemic glory for at least a generation. The pandemic has broken the reset button enabling an economic rebound to return the urban areas to their former glory.

Channeling George Carlin | Revitalization vs Gentrification

As thousands of urban dwellers decamp to small cities and towns, the description provided by the media smacks of double-standard.

George Carlin’s classic soft language skit described how bygone expressions which are today considered ‘politically incorrect” have been replaced by language that offends few but confuses all.

Why is it called “revitalization” when mostly Caucasian residents of a higher socio-economic status enter another mostly Caucasian neighborhood which raises real estate prices? Wouldn’t that be considered “gentrification”?

But the word “gentrification” is often used when Caucasian residents of a higher socio-economic status move into a rundown (never described as “shrinking” or “dying”) neighborhood with mostly residents of color?

The difference between the two words can be described as “displacement”. In a revitalized phase no one is displaced while during gentrification longtime residents are displaced (“priced out”) by higher rents or higher taxes for homeowners that they can no longer afford.

Classical case studies in NYC are the neighborhoods of Harlem, Bed-Stuyvesant, Williamsburg and Fort Greene, to name a few which, in which gentrification did not raise the financial fortunes of the multi-generational “indigenous” residents. Homeowners were few and far between because their low-paying jobs made it difficult to get a mortgage, even during the pre-gentrification period of pre rezoning depressed prices. For those that want to remain, considerably higher real estate taxes make remaining in their neighborhood difficult.

Domestic Self-Exile

The irony of this migration into domestic self-exile from the big urban cities is that small town and city residents couldn’t afford to live in the large cities are now having large city residents come to them. For this reason real estate prices – renters and new homeowners – are rising exponentially creating greater population density and subsequent pressure on public services against modest municipal budgets.

In addition to an economic shift, lifestyle tensions will rise between the newly arrived and long-time residents as big city residents consciously or unconsciously impose their sophisticated lifestyles on the small city citizenry whose lifestyles are far simpler. Seeking to recreate big city services with a small town vibe, demands for vegetarian/vegan restaurants and exotic coffees don’t fit the daily or aspirational culinary lifestyle of a small city resident. Welcome to the gentrification of Americana.

Domestic Expatriates

Surely there will be elements in their new medium-term paradise will have a nostalgic yearn for urban life when the economic situation stabilizes and becomes far safer, not necessarily pre-pandemic safe, but at an acceptable level.

Psychologically urban dwellers may get bored after living in a quieter environment and crave the social and professional “rush” and dynamics of the big city. This is particularly true as fall weather approaches with winter not far behind with its shorter days and shorter daylight against the possibility of tighter restrictions or even future lockdowns as surges occur worldwide. This exposes the harsh reality of the limits of technology to sooth the human soul. Robot dogs may not poop on the carpet but they can’t love.

Political Shift to Violet

The other element is the subtle and slightly noticeable shift politically as blue state residents enter red states and visa-versa creating a grayer political landscape and change in voter profile. In fact by mixing the colors blue and red you get violet resulting in an organically grown third political representation in districts which cannot be readily classified Democrat or Republican.

Demographic Endgame

The exodus from large, dense urban areas will continue short to medium-term as the trends of mass employment, increased homelessness, rise in crime, fewer urban public services and overall degradation of quality of life.

Nonetheless these same trends in the urban areas will eventually adversely impact smaller urban and even rural areas to where the exodus have fled. A deep recession or depression whose negative elements, like a virus, tend to eliminate sanctuaries which adheres to the old adage, “A person meets his destiny on the road he takes to avoid it.”

 

Copyright 2020 Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based think-tank and advisory service that provides prescient beyond-the-horizon contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on energy investments, geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.

 


The Pandemic Paradigm

The pandemic with its myriad of lockdowns has destroyed the retail industry from high-end luxury to low-end bargain basement triggering unprecedented bankruptcies and vaporizing decades-old, beloved retail stores.

Historically when danger approaches man and beast seek shelter underground in their respect caves. The fundamental change to reacting to danger in the 21st century is that with information technology, humans are seeking sanctuary in the cloud by working and socializing remotely.

Some luxury brands were laggards to embracing technology and ended up being dragged kicking & screaming into the cloud. Their reluctance to adapt was their belief that their high-end clients strongly preferred shopping in-person and they didn’t want to “cheapen” the brand by allowing anyone, anywhere with a credit card to purchase their exclusive products.

The collapse of the retail industry is illustrated in the following chart entitled Retailers Face Mass Extinction in Pandemic Fallout provided by Coresight Research and The Wall Street Journal and presented by Statista, an online statistical firm.


Shopping in the Cloud

The fashion retail firms with foresight pre-positioned themselves for a shift to online business were far better able to adapt to an abrupt change in the economic landscape and maintain some semblance of business while closing their brick & mortar stores.

The financial advantages of operating mostly online include lower fixed costs without the hassles of negotiating leases, operating expenses, on-site security personnel and/or technology and adhering costly municipal regulations.

Operating mostly in the cloud is the present-day new normal despite the precipitous drop in commercial leasing prices. All businesses have suffered several profound shocks within the last 20 years notably 9/11, Great Recession and the present-day pandemic creating a justifiable paranoia that screams, “What’s next?” with the new mindset of being nimble to adapt to long-term tough times.

With respect to the American consumer, they’ve become comfortable shopping online 24/7 without risking an “arm and a leg” in a world of protests, civil unrest and skyrocketing violent crime while shifting the risk to delivery personnel. This particularly applies to the thousands of urban residents who have decamped to smaller cities and towns where there are fewer, if any, of the higher-end fashion shops.

The following chart entitled Covid-19 Crisis Accelerates Shift to Online Retail provided by the US Census Bureau and presented by Statista, underscores this powerful shift to online shopping:

The Cloud & Tactile Disconnect

Despite all its conveniences the present-day pandemic era of robust growth of cloud-based shopping may be short-lived and wane in a post-pandemic landscape. Consumers may strongly prefer the tactile shopping experience particularly for higher end clothes to justify their expenditures. The best of best technologies even holograms cannot replace the irreplaceable tactile experience.

Then there’s the so-called “shopping experience”. The brick & mortar’s real-life aesthetics represent a far different shopping experience than the online aesthetic design. Some firms may have great product but a terribly designed web or a firm with a marginal product has terrific sales because of great web design making image and perception far more critical elements in the online world to generate sales.

The Demise of the Brick & Mortar Model

The pandemic economic destruction on brick & mortar stores represent a weight wrapped around their necks, the death keel for most, as they seek financial sanctuary in the cloud through online operations. The cloud represents that oasis where these firms can survive. Though firms are making their operations leaner and nimbler, generating sufficient sales is challenging.

Furthermore maintaining customer loyalty was already a slippery task pre-pandemic because customers, particularly the younger generations, became less brand loyal and far more price-sensitive by seeking quality over labels.

With limited brick & mortar operations direct customer interaction barely exists making it difficult to monitor and assess changes in customer sentiment vs. best-guess online marketing surveys results. In a hyper-competitive field such as the fast-changing world of fashion, being proactive and ahead of the curve in customer preferences is paramount for maintaining market share, sales and profits.

Finally although market share is important, the pie is far smaller due to lower demand through mass unemployment as customers shift priorities to purchasing and stocking up on survival essentials such as food and medicines.

This stark trend is evident in the following chart entitled Mass Exodus of Retail Storesprovide by Coresight Research and The Wall Street Journal presented by Statista.

Uneven Recovery for Fashion Retailers

The recent financial recovery of the fashion (clothing) industry within the retail market has been uneven. The following chart entitled Clothing Stores Fall behind in Uneven Retail Recovery provided by the US Census Bureau and presented by Statista, articulates fashion’s struggle during the June-August 2019 v 2020 year-on-year comparison with 2020 sales 22.6% below that of 2019 during this period.

Pop-Up Solutions

A hybrid solution in the rebalancing of brick & mortar and online shopping is reinvigorating the pop-up store. The advantages of pop-up stores are the following:

·         Immediate market survey information by speaking directly with current and prospective customers to gauge customer sentiment on present-day and new product lines

·         “Up-designing” pop-up stores to look like boutiques.

·         The limited liability and loss of inventory to offset the risks of looting by organized mobs on high-end retail shops which is occurring regularly in Soho, NY in broad daylight.

·         Because of the commercial leasing collapse firms should be able to obtain highly favorable and flexible leasing arrangements in prime locations well into the post-pandemic era.

A New Frontier in e-Commerce

The first step for the immediate to near-future is whether the e-commerce business can make up for lost brick & mortar sales.

The second step medium-term to long-term step (post-pandemic) is whether the decrease in brick & mortar sales will eventually meet at the crossroads with the ascendent online sales and provide an acceptable return-on-investment.

These trends provoke the big question: what are the limits as to how far one can leverage technology to generate and maintain long-term online sales to justify the elimination of the brick & mortar model?

 

Copyright 2020 Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based think-tank and advisory service that provides prescient beyond-the-horizon contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on energy investments, geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.

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