Which side is telling the truth?
Neither side is telling the whole truth.
If you have a relative who is currently in a nursing home and relying on Medicaid, you do NOT have to worry about them being kicked out. However, over the next several years, as the Baby Boomers age, waiting lists will grow longer and care resources will be squeezed.
It is true that the Republican plan will increase Medicaid funding each year by the medical inflation rate. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Republican plan will increase Medicaid funding from $393 Billion in 2017 to $464 Billion in 2026.
The problem with the Republican plan, however, is that it doesn’t take into account the changing demographics of the elderly population. The average 85-year old on Medicaid needs more than twice as many Medicaid dollars as the average 65-year old on Medicaid.
Nine years from now, when the Baby Boomers reach the magic 8-0 they’ll begin to use long-term care services en masse. The modest Medicaid increases in the Republican plan will not keep pace with the increasing costs of care. At that point states will need to cut back on services, lower reimbursement rates to nursing homes, raise taxes or take other cost-shifting measures.