Sunday, August 6, 2017
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The Dow closed at a record high – the 8th straight record close and the 34th record close this year. For the week, the Dow rose 1.2%, its second straight weekly rise, as well as its fourth positive week of the past five. The S&P rose 0.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq ended lower by 0.4%.
The economy added 209,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%, that’s a 16-year low. The government also raised its estimate of new jobs created in June to 231,000 from 222,000. May’s gain was reduced to 145,000 from 152,000, however. Over the past 3 months, the economy has added 195,000 jobs per month on average. Payroll gains averaged 180,000 in the first half of 2017, compared with 193,000 in the second half of 2016. During the first six months of Trump’s term, the economy has added 1,027,000 private sector jobs. July marked the 82nd straight month of job growth, a record.
It was a good jobs report. If there was a blemish in the month’s numbers, it came from the distribution of jobs to lower-income sectors. Job creation was strongly titled to part-time, which gained 393,000 positions, while full-time fell by 54,000.
The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in July to 62.9% from 62.8%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.2%. It’s unclear how long the current growth can continue. The monthly jobs figures are volatile; only two months ago, the May jobs report showed less than 150,00 new jobs. But beyond the month-to-month data, there is reason to think the recovery can keep going. The labor force participation rate for workers age 25-54, workers in their prime working years, increased to 78.7%. New post-recession high for share of working-age adults who have jobs. The labor force grew by 349,000 people in July; the so-called participation rate — the share of adults who are either working or actively looking for work — has been essentially flat for the past year and a half. That’s an impressive trend given the ongoing retirement of the baby boom generation, which puts downward pressure on the participation rate, and it is a sign that the labor market is strong enough to pull workers off the sidelines.
The Federal Reserve will likely look at the July report as confirmation that everything is on track for one more rate hike later in the year. A mild nudge in wages not enough to worry about inflation. With unemployment so low, economists have been watching for signs that the economy is nearing “full employment,” the point at which essentially everyone who wants a job has one. That mark is significant because standard economic theory suggests that once the economy runs out of spare workers, companies will have to start boosting pay to attract employees. That would be a welcome development for workers but would also likely spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to try to keep the economy from overheating.
And if you need proof that there is still significant slack in the labor market, look no further than Amazon. Thousands of Americans lined up in the searing heat on Wednesday for Amazon’s Jobs Day, when it had said it would hire 50,000 workers for fairly low-paying, physically demanding jobs in high-pressure warehouses. Perhaps the Fed could have sent a staffer to observe the lines and talk to some of the people in them for insight into the real economy. The jobs offer between $12 and $15 an hour, well above the federal minimum wage. Crucially, they also offer healthcare benefits, absent in a lot of lower-paying jobs. Workers know all too well the labor market is far from great, but policymakers in Washington are bent on insisting otherwise. With the official unemployment rate at a historically low 4.3%, Fed officials seem determined to raise interest rates and shrink their balance sheet despite inflation that continues to slip below their 2% target, indicating more room for the economy to grow more evenly. Companies big and small are rushing to fill a near record number of job openings, but what they aren’t doing is offering bigger paydays. Less skilled workers are much easier to find and companies are unlikely to pay them more than they have to.
Underemployment is still rampant, and wages have long been stuck in a rut. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 5.3 million, was essentially unchanged in July. There are 1.79 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was up from 1.66 million in June. But consider that the economy only needs to add 100,000 new jobs per month to keep pace with population growth, if we continue at the current pace, we will get to full employment – that mythical place where everybody who wants a job gets a job. We’re not there yet, but it was a good jobs report.
In the bond market, treasuries have climbed off their worst levels after an early sell-off but remained firmly negative. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed 3.9 basis points to 2.267 percent.
VRtrader.com Platinum subscribers are hedged with inverse ETF positions which I think is wise as we enter a time frame that is often associated with market corrections, i.e., between now and October. Having rigged markets, especially since 2009, certainly helps as witnessed by low market volatilty. The 'powers that be' (until they change their mind) are hell bent on supporting index pricing, especially the DJ and SPX. But, there is also the question of where else do investors put their money? Overtime, I've said that a DJ at 40,000 is not reasonable and there is some who believe we're in the throes of upward acceleration phase due expectations of lower taxes and repatriation of foreign investment which would lead to further stock buybacks further forcing pricing higher. In addition, despite all the 'fake news' surrounding Donald Trump, it has been view since he announced his candidacy that he would be successful and I remain in that conviction. It is truly uncanny how the media is permitted to get away with what has occurred and how the liberal left can control the airwaves. Fortunately, they will not succeed in my opinion and the future for both the Democratic party and their journalistic careers will become bleaker as time pushes forward. It is also uncanny how little attention is paid on the part of the press to the surge in stock prices. I've met idiots who loved Obama solely because they saw their stock portfolio push higher but give no credit to Trump whatsoever.
Meanwhile, I would not panic if stocks shakeout in coming weeks, but I also hope to participate on the downside when they do. Nice trade in GBTC 'ringing the register' for $40.00 on Friday! Also, GWPH on the move touching 120 in the aftermarket. Earnings report due Monday or Tuesday.
MARKET STATS FOR FRIDAY, AUGUST 4, 2017:The DJ Industrials closed up 66.71 at 22092.81, a new record high.
The SPX closed up 4.67 at 2476.83. A new bull market high at 2484.04 was posted on July 27.The Dow Transports closed up 75.23 at 9277.63. A trading bottom in place after a 650 point decline?The Nasdaq Comp closed up 11.22 at 6351.56. The Nasdaq traded at 6460.84, a new bull market high on July 28.The Russell 2000 closed up 7.09 at 1412.32. The Russell traded at a new bull market high 1452.09 on July 25.S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 66.01 at 15257.97 while the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index closed down .82 at 765.68. The Canadian Dollar via the FXC Exchange Traded Fund closed down .42 at 77.99.
Gold closed down 9.50 at 1259.40. July 6, 2016 high at 1373.70 is the next big upside target. We've just entered the traditional seasonally strong up period for Gold which should carry into the Fall. The XAU Index closed down 1.95 at 82.04. Technical signals point into the 88.00 to 93.00 range!
Silver closed down .41 at 16.34. I am still targeting silver into the low to mid 20s possible by this time next year.
Platinum closed up 1.00 at 968.00. Above 1048, I would be looking for at least another $100 to the upside. Meanwhile, the recent low at 885.00 from July 11 is key support.
Palladium closed down 7.00 at 875.00. Watching the recent big trading range of 917.00 to 814.00 for clues of direction.
Copper closed up .0085 at 2.8850. Copper is on the move and we're long copper ETFs.
Crude Oil closed up .55 at 49.58.
Natural Gas closed down .026 at 2.774.
Uranium as posted on https://www.uxc.com/Default.aspx in its last posting:
Bitcoin closed at 2732.50. The record high which was formed on June 6 at 2967.48. Price data comes from Coindesk.com. GBTC - the Bitcoin Investment Trust - GBTC - closed up 3.00 at 475.00. GBTC traded down to 297.50 intraday on June 15. On May 25 GBTC hit its bull market high at 565.00. On August 1st, 2017 there is a proposal to make changes to the bitcoin software. This proposal, known as Bitcoin Cash, is likely to create a fork in the Bitcoin network. This means that after August 1st, 2017 there are likely to be two versions of the Bitcoin blockchain and two separate digital currencies. Of course, there are hundreds of others out there besides Bitcoin.CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations. CHECK THIS OUT. TOP 100 CRYPTOS:http://tinyurl.com/ycojaetj
U.S. Treasury Bonds closed down 29/32 at 154 3/32. 
The U.S. Dollar Index closed at 93.542. The recent is is 92.079 from August 3 and the recent bull market high is 103.63 from December 28.
The VIX (Volatility Index) closed at down .41 at 10.03 The July 26 low as a near-historic 8.84 which should be a bearish sign for the equity markets.
WALL STREET RAW RADIO - AUGUST 5, 2017: GUESTS INCLUDE: ARCH CRAWFORD, JEFF BISHOP, KYLE DENNIS, SINCLAIR NOE, HENRY WEINGARTEN, HARRY BOXER and LOWELL PONTE.
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The Math That Proves This Market Is Kaput - Stocks are historically expensive, and U.S. bonds sport paltry yields—an unsettling combinationHere is a market prediction that really can be made with a high degree of confidence. Returns over the next decade are going to be lousy. Simple math says so.
Over the medium-term, the price investors pay for a dollar of earnings at the outset far outweighs future economic growth or profits. Even if a time traveler from the year 2027 returned with evidence of superior corporate profits, it would reveal little about how much stocks could rise.
Take the 10 years starting in December 1964. Large U.S. company profits grew by 80% over the next decade, yet the S&P 500 was about a fifth lower by December 1974. On the other hand, a time traveler would have delivered bad news in June 1949—profits were going to rise by a modest 44% over a decade. Yet the market rose threefold. The difference is that the starting price-to-earnings ratio was high in late 1964 and very low in mid-1949.
The Dow industrials crossed 22000 for the first time this week, and the blue-chip index has now more than tripled since a low set in March 2009. Four veteran Wall Street Journal market watchers ponder what’s next.
As the Dow passes the 22000 mark, led mostly by tech stocks, Heard on the Street reporters try to make sense of the continuing rise, despite some warning signs. Photo: Getty
Today, stocks are historically expensive and the risk-free alternative, U.S. government bonds, sport paltry yields. The upshot is that a hypothetical investor who rebalances his or her portfolio annually to hold 60% in an S&P 500 index fund and 40% in 10-year Treasury notes shouldn’t expect much.
Over the half-century through the end of 2016, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of 10.1%, while 10-year Treasury notes’ return was 6.7%. An investor who thought that the future would mirror the past and invested $10,000 in the index fund and bonds would expect it to more than double to $23,000 by August 2027. But, if P/E ratios return to normal and bond yields merely stay the same, it would turn into just $14,800, or a gain 48%.
Yes, strange things can happen, and P/E ratios could have reached a sort of permanently elevated nirvana, but the ‘E’ might not oblige. Based on the recent pace of economic growth, inflation and stock buybacks, the market’s trailing P/E ratio would have to keep expanding for stock prices to rise 10% a year, reaching a level not seen outside of bubble peaks. Or one could hope for a boom in growth and profit margins, but then yields would rise and returns on the bond portfolio would suffer.
Oh, and whatever markets do, it certainly won’t be in a neat, upward-sloping line. While 48% in a decade isn’t great, investors should at least avoid being spooked out of sabotaging even those pedestrian returns when the next bear market appears.
https://www.wsj.com/article_email/the-math-that-proves-this-market-is-kaput-1501863734-lMyQjAxMTA3NzA3NTIwMzU5Wj/
Is Obama Behind this Coup vs. President Trump?Wayne Root August 5, 2017 Commentary:
Many of President Trump’s conversations with world leaders have been leaked. Just days ago, we saw an exact transcript of his conversation with the president of Mexico. This is something that has never happened in America’s history.
Did you even know anyone listened in and recorded the private conversations of the President of the United States? I didn’t.
This is outrageous and ridiculous. More importantly, it’s illegal. It’s actually worse than illegal- it constitutes treason. It threatens America’s national security. The greatest country and military in world history cannot allow our president’s private conversations with world leaders to be leaked to any Tom, Dick, or Harry.
Or worse, the leaders of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, or ISIS.
Do you think it’s okay if President Trump’s plans to remove the dictator of North Korea are released to the public? Liberals who hate President Trump don’t seem to mind. But what if a leak of our military plans for North Korea causes Kim Jong-un to send a nuclear missile hurtling towards California? Is that okay with liberals?
This scandal is the greatest threat to national security in our history. What are the ramifications? It means anytime any powerful federal employee doesn’t like what the president says, he or she can leak his private conversations.
It means at any time our national credibility and security can be blown to smithereens by any rogue federal employee.
It means no world leader will ever again want to speak on the phone with our president, if they know their conversation will become public.
It means any NSA or CIA employee who doesn’t like the president or his agenda, can choose to blackmail the President of the United States.
This isn’t about whether you like the current president, or not. Any government employees caught and convicted of leaking must be charged with treason and punished with life terms, or the death penalty.
But this brings up an important question….
How come we never in 8 years had one single leak of any of President Obama’s conversations?
This proves how corrupt our federal government has become. Federal employees are no longer on our side, or America’s side. They are on the side of whoever and whatever makes government bigger and more powerful. They are on the side of any establishment politician who supports bigger government. Mostly, they are on the side of one party- Democrats. And they are on the side of one specific ppolitician- former President Obama.
Why? Because Obama expanded the power of big government like no one in history. He spent America into bankruptcy to expand the power, size and scope of big government. He added more debt than all the presidents in history COMBINED. He added more regulations than any president in history. Obama and big government go together like apple pie and motherhood.
And all these same federal employees leaking President Trump’s private conversations have a deep-seated hatred, resentment and distrust of Trump. Because he is a businessman, not one of them. Because he isn’t owned by big government interests, or government employee unions. Because he wants to cut the size of government. Because he wants to restore power to the Constitution and the people- where it belongs.
So, they are out to frame him (with Special Counselor Mueller) and destroy him with leaks. If I’m wrong, why wasn’t there a single leak of any of Obama’s private conversations with world leaders for eight long years? Because Obama is on their team.
The question is, is this corrupt deep state scandal led by a shadow president named Barack Obama? Obama clearly is the one man with the gravitas to pull this off. He has the undying loyalty of the government employees. He has the resources and backing from billionaire liberals and globalists.
I’m betting the same man who used government agencies to illegally spy on Donald Trump and other GOP presidential candidates…and to illegally unmask Trump aides, is now behind a silent coup to remove Trump from office. Is this coup being directed from Obama’s walled mansion only blocks from the White House? Is it being funded and coordinated by George Soros and other shadowy liberal billionaires who believe in big government?
Who is going to investigate? Who is going to hold the leaders of this corrupt conspiracy responsible? And if Obama is found to be directing it all, does anyone have the courage to indict a former president for treason?
PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY FROM EMP RISKS SHOULD NORTH KOREA OR OTHERS SET OFF AN ATMOSPHERIC NUCLEAR EXPLOSION?
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Do you subscribe to the Cannabis/Vice Letter?Love them or hate them, Vice stocks make investors money, which is why most people are in the stock market to begin with. “Sin” stocks—or maybe you prefer the term “vice” better—are generally made up of publicly traded companies that deal with alcohol, arms, sex, tobacco, and gambling. And whether the economy is doing well or not, chances are good that consumers will buy cigarettes, drink alcohol, go to strip clubs, and buy guns. And chances are also really good that Washington is going to maintain its military spending. On top of that, many sin stocks, especially cigarette makers, provide consistent annual dividend growth. That makes sin stocks pretty attractive in a near-zero interest rate environment. Vice stocks can afford to pay out solid dividends because their underlying products don’t cost very much to make. At the same time, they all have high barriers to entry, so competition isn’t exactly fierce. As a result, sin stocks have everything I look for when it comes to stock market investing. They have a resiliency that other stocks lack.
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What is a Leibovit Volume Reversal (
VR)? You can learn how to use this positive indicator and begin picking your own trades! A Leibovit Volume Reversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an in-crease in volume. IT THIS THE MAJOR TOOL I USE THAT TRIGGERS MOST TRADING OPPORTUNITIES.
Leibovit Volume Reversals ™ coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in the marketplace.
Here is the June 1, 2016 eSignal Webinar:
http://tinyurl.com/hcjbgr5Also, check out the following link to sign up for Metastock and watch an introductory video:
http://www.metastock.com/products/thirdparty/?3PC-ADD-VRIS#3PC-ADD-VRIS/And here is a recent (June 1, 2016) webinar I did at TradeStation describing the Leibovit Volume Reversal:
https://tradestation.tradingappstore.com/products/LeibovitVolumeReversalThe Volume Reversal ™ is registered trademark and can only be used or quoted after receiving express written permission from VRTrader.com and Mark Leibovit.
I occasionally post a Leibovit
VR tutorial demonstrating my use of the
VR indicator on the various platforms. Meanwhile, I am available for personal consultation (mentoring) on the use of the VRindicator. Just drop me an email
atmark.vrtrader@gmail.com------------------------------
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Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with it is a toy, an amusement; then it is a mistress, and then a master, and then a tyrant.”
-Winston Churchill (British statesman, 1874-1965)
My book,”The Trader’s Book of Volume”
(published by McGraw-Hill) is available in both in English and now CHINESE!
Here is the link to Amazon.com:http://tinyurl.com/3wms9q2Here is the Trader's Press Link:http://www.invest-store.com/vrtrader/Here is the link to Kindle:http://tinyurl.com/z7bt66gFrom Yale Hirsch:
“My 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac was dedicated to THE NEW PROGNOSTICATORS. Mark Leibovit was one of them. I evidently had insight as Timer Digest named Mark the “Number One Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007.” For the 10 years ending 2009, he was #2 intermediate MarketTimer. He is also their #1 Gold Market Timer for 2011. This book should be REQUIRED READING for anyone who trades.”
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BE INSPIRED- WATCH HIGH FLIGHTThis film poem gives me goosebumps and tears, especially knowing that the poet, John Gillespie Magee, Jr., an American Pilot serving in the Royal Canadian Air Force in England, died at 19 years old (December 11, 1941) in a training mid-air collision over Lincolnshire, just three months after writing it. You might all remember this. I am planning of using it at the beginning of my weekly radio show.
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VRTRADER.COM PLATINUM LETTER FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 7, 2017 - DUE TO TRAVEL IN AUGUST, UPDATES WILL BE LESS FREQUENT - BULLETINS SENT WERE APPROPRIATE appeared first on
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