Economic Cycle Bottoms Around 2036
The highest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression was 10.8% in late 1982, 54 years before the next Depression cycle of 2036, give or take a couple years. 2036-1928=108 years, a perfect every other cycle. Every other cycle is either a land cycle or an ocean cycle. The land cycle is stronger than the ocean cycle, so 1982 in the ocean cycle was 10.8% unemployment while 1933 in the land cycle was 25% unemployment, twice as much. The 2036 coming event in a land cycle will probably set the record for the twenty-first century just as 1933 set the record for the twentieth century. 1928 is the year Hoover was elected on a pledge to raise tariffs. 1927-1928 were back-to-back no growth years, 1929 was 6.6% growth, and 1930 was growing until the Smoot-Hawley tariff was signed into law June 11, 1930. The stock market 1929 crash was looking ahead after the September 1929 special session of congress reported the bill out of committee, to create a stock market crash four days later (10-28-1929). Knowing we are ten years away, we need to tax the rich, perhaps with a wealth tax to pay down the 37 trillion-dollar debt, before we hit the perfect storm. The top 1% have saved about 35 trillion-dollars from the Reagan-Bush-Trump “unpaid for” tax cuts by the lawless fascist cultist Republicans. It’s pay back time for the rich.
Secondary War 2006, Major War 2024
Forecasting the next major war is crucial to budgeting for long-term national security. The biggest danger is premature military spending during the peace cycle. Why? Because devoting capitol and research to national defense instead of manufacturing turns dynamic economic growth resources to passive service sector resources, slowing economic growth. The economy wins wars more clearly than the initial military budget size. America proved that in World War Two. The whole war cycle runs 2004-2031 when you map the 17 Roman, American, and post 1500 modern Europe Wars. For America, Iraq turns up three years ahead of schedule. For the world, Ukraine comes two years early, but exactly on schedule, compared to World War One, 2022-1914=108=2x54, exactly two 54-year cycles ago. For Gaza, 2023-1973=50 years after the Yom Kipper War of 1973, four years early or 2023- Longterm the secondary war cycle is about 18 years early and for Europe it is about 15 years early. Compared to Korea, Iraq is 4 years early, opposite to the Katrina hurricane which was 4 years late compared to the prior event in 1893. (1893+108=2001, not 2005)
Cooling Period 1994-2021
Cooling boosts the economy and warming slows the economy and the natural wave is symmetrical, 27 up years and 27 down years. But just like a large ship turning in the ocean has a large wake that tends to go in the same direction, actual cooling tends to bottom four years after (1917) the natural predicted end point (1913). Same for the heating period which ends 1994 but 1998 is the hottest year until about 2013. So recent cycles have shown this 4-year drift.
Growth Period 1994-2021
The growth period sets up the war cycle with the second biggest war around the 2006 peak of the growth cycle and the major war three years after the end of the growth period (2024). But while 2024 is the average major war start date, the phenomena for seven of eight American and European wars since 1850 is such that 6 of 17 major wars had a 2025 median, one year past the average. This cooling relative bottom has a two- or three-year cooling trend. Major volcanoes also have a two- or three-year cooling after eruption. Since 1850, 11 major volcanoes have erupted with seven having a two-year cooling signature. One 1912 volcano cooled the earth for two years leading into the 1914 world war. This needs more study. 1917 was a two or three cooling year trend with America entering the world war in April 1917. The three-month period March April May were the coldest months of the twentieth century for the Northern Lands data set. In 1989, all the changes in East European governments were peaceful except Romania, when the leader was murdered after a polar vortex cold air mass went through that area. A polar vortex hit America earlier that month when Bush invaded Panama. One mass murderer killed on the coldest days of his killing spree. The cold murder war connection would make a good dissertation; it does puzzle me.
Warming Periods, 1967-1994 and 2021-2048
The four largest El Ninos of the twentieth century were 1926, 1941, 1983, 1998. 1998 was the hottest year of the twentieth century. These El Ninos are Kondratiev plus three: 1998-1941=57, 1983-1926=57. They are also secondary and primary major warlike, 15 years apart: 1998-1983=15, 1941-1926=15.
Trump Reaction July 4th, 2025
Trump expressed disappointment and said that the Nobel Peace Prize will be given to a school professor whom you may not even know. I think he learned about me and hopes to take the Prize away from me for himself.
Overall Planning
Does the coming super wave in heating after 2025 mean Taiwan is safer than otherwise thought? Possibly. Human agency and free will suggests the human factor is supreme. But is it really, we do crazy things during a full moon. And economics can pressure a leader into a war to keep the people under control. High military spending leads to crime increases and combined with atmospherics may push a leader into action. Libertarians have long noted the loss of liberty that comes with war. The loss of economy and increase in crime and other social problems must include the loss of half a nations income over a generation of premature high military spending. I’ve won many a game of Risk or Summit by laying in the weeds waiting for others to squander their resources before I strike and win. Caution is the better way forward. Peace Through Strength thinking argues America was under armed before WWII. Actually, they were super strong economically thanks to a century and a half of low military spending.
Here are 56 examples of the weather wealth and wars of the Kondratiev Cycle:
https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yearCycle_3p_13
Here is America’s 1910-2009 economic, military, and deficit year by year history:
https://www.academia.edu/4044532/HISTORY_Presidents_Military_Economy_1910_2009_3p_2013
Please cite this work as follows: Reuschlein, Robert. (2025, August 13), “Timeline Reuschlein Theory” Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute. Retrieved from: https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Timeline-Reuschlein-Theory,2025311104.aspx.
Dr. Peace, Dr. Robert Reuschlein,
Real Economy Institute
Nobel Peace Prize Nominee 2016-2025
Website and Trump July 4th reaction suggests this may be my year!
best contact bobreuschlein@gmail.com
for more info www.realeconomy.com