Throughouthuman history leaders, whether saints or despots, have willingly remained withtheir defenders, military and civilians, against their foes in order to facetheir destiny.

Russians| Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

AlthoughVolodymyr Zelensky is the former comedian now president of Ukraine, it appearsas if this war is turning into a dark comedy for the Russian army whose progressto seize three critical cities has ground to a halt against a motivated andinspired Ukrainian urban defense.

Likethe 1968 cinematic classic The Producers, “director” Vladmir Putin thought itwas going to be a sure-thing cakewalk with a politically divided west, weak US/Nato,outmanned and outgunned Ukraine whose non-Nato status legally eliminated directUS/Nato military intervention.

Butit seems like the joke is on Putin as the Ukrainian military and citizenry aredemonstrating a level of vicious tenacity that Russian military intelligence,and perhaps the US/Nato intelligence, grossly underestimated.

StrongMan Zelensky | No Basement at the Alamo

Nowadaysit’s almost unheard of for a leader under siege to remain in situ untilthe bitter end. The last modern-day dramatic show of defiance may have been in October1981 when Anwar Sadat of Egypt stood up instead of ducking on the review standwhen a radical faction of the military parade opened fire and assassinated him.

Zelenskyknows that the cavalry is not coming. He was quoted by a British source, “Ineed ammunition, not a ride.” His actions match the saying goes, “There’s nobasement at the Alamo” all of which appear to be ripped from the scripts ofB-movies. Regardless of the pulp fiction quotes, the citizenry is inspired by aleader who will stand front & center to defend the nation instead of fleeingand fighting with verbal judo in exile.

Furthermore,he’s Ukraine’s democratically elected president who is Jewish, a tiny minorityof 215,000 in a country of 44 million, according to the Jewish Confederation ofUkraine. In other words, he’s boldly leading and inspiring an overwhelming Christiancountry in a region where the Jewish community has suffered horribly throughthe pogroms of fascists and Communists alike.

Onemight accuse Zelensky of narcissism by flaunting a flair for the dramatic. Butthis isn’t theater. It’s real-life and the survival of an, albeit imperfect,work in progress democracy whose past non-democratic leaderships is somethingyou can erase overnight.

WeakMan Putin | The Sands Are Shifting Beneath Him

Incontrast to Zelensky’s defiant outdoors public posture surrounded by hiscamouflage outfitted high-level officials, in the face of overwhelming militaryfirepower, Vladimir Putin, located hundreds of miles away far from the hostilities,issues bombastic directives and threats from his underground bunker. It almostseems as if he’s not afraid of the Ukrainian military rather his own citizenswho are engaged in defiant anti-war protests. The optics indicate that Putinfeels under siege and is a prisoner of his self-created paranoia rather than a democratically-freeZelensky beloved by his countrymen.

Thefigures in the following chart entitled WhereRussian Anti-War Protestors Have Been Detained provided by OVD-Info, a Russianactivist group, understate the non-protestor Russian citizenry’s disgust (in private)as to where their country is headed with a disastrous war that has neither a realpurpose nor upside.

Thepresent-day protests follow the trend indicated in the following chart entitledRussianAre Increasingly Likely to Protest provided by the Levada Center, a Russianindependent research group, that has had their share of Russian governmentalpressure.

Ibelieve that Putin’s support is eroding dramatically including his inner circleof sycophants. Anecdotes indicate that Russians, from the military to the citizenry,have adopted the attitude, “I didn’t sign up for this.”

Thewindow is closing rapidly for Putin’s much wished for lightning military victory.Nonetheless such a triumph will merely buy him more time in office as hissupporters, even China, take a non-committal stance.

A Pyrrhicvictory or military stalemate will grease the skids for his ouster as he assumesa bunker mentality becoming more isolated psychically and psychologically.

Rumorsabound that the military from the highest leadership to the grunt were “duped”into fighting a war against their next door neighbor with whom they sharecultural and familial bonds. For them it’s an unnecessary de facto civil warfor domination, not to defend their homeland.

OperationValkyrie Russian Style

“OperationValkyrie” was the name of the plot to assassinate Hitler in July 1944 devisedand carried out mostly by the military high command as the German army wasretreating on all fronts of WW II.

Russia’sforward progress has embarrassingly stalled and without a fresh supply ofpersonnel and materiel their efforts to capture Kyiv and other key cities willresult in a meat-grinder war of attrition. Capturing huge swathes of open landis one thing. Capturing an urban center is the military’s worst nightmare whichalways results in high casualty rates. The deceleration of the Russian armedforces’ progress might be proportional to the collapse of the Putin mafiastate.

Justas the Russian army use the encirclement/pincer attack on Ukraine, the same tacticmay be in progress to oust Putin. The conspirators probably include thebusiness elite, military high command and bureaucrats, the latter who have theutmost intimate knowledge of government operations.

Expressedsimplistically, defiance to Putin’s orders by the army on the military battlefieldand by bureaucrats on the administrative battlefield can contribute to neutralizefurther military advancement in Ukraine.

Conclusion

AsUkrainian cities defy superior Russian firepower, the optics prove that Zelenskyhas become the new strongman and Putin a man on the run in this unfoldingdrama.

Forthis reason I don’t believe that Putin will be in the presidential palace to run forre-election for the March 2024 national elections. The new (interim) Russianleadership will be pro-Russia but not anti-western and will establish normaldiplomatic and commercial engagements while complying to international law.

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