Awarding the Nobel Physics Prize

            This is meant to be a summary of the temperature analysis that led to the discovery of the astronomic climate forcing that governs human economics on planet Earth.  As solar radiation hits planet Earth most of it immediately vaporizes water.  This becomes a climate forcing event because that vaporization is much higher over ocean than over land.  The remaining solar radiation directly heats up the Earth.  That heating is about three times as much over land as it is over ocean.  This creates an initial energy imbalance forcing an energy transfer from the over heated land to the under heated ocean.  This energy rebalancing takes 54 years to resolve itself.  This means there is a cycle of 54 years, 27 years of heating followed by 27 years of cooling, in the Earth's surface temperature.  This leads directly to the economic cycle discovered by the Russian Nicolai Kondratiev circa 1926.  Finding this connection between physics and economics is worthy of the Nobel Physics Prize.

Kondratiev Wave

            The story of Russian Nicolai Kondratiev (Kondratieff) is fraught with political difficulties then and now, and a biased reception in the West since his death in 1938.  Since he was Lenin's finance minister he is rightly considered a communist, but wrongly considered a Stalinist.  Two important reasons for his execution by Stalin after a show trial were 1) under Lenin he did not favor state control of small business, only big business.  2)  his theory predicted that the Great Depression was only a low point on the cycle to be followed by the next high point in the forty's fifties and sixties after World War II.  Stalin believed that the Great Depression was the beginning of the end for capitalism and did not want to be contradicted.  Then in 1940 the British published a report showing that British wheat prices since 1240, 700 years ago, showed 14 repetitions of the 54-year cycle when measured against a fifty year moving average.  Their graph is visually compelling evidence.  But the British empire was in decline with America emerging to replace them.  After 1945 Schumpeter of Harvard emerged with the manmade economic theory of idea production driving the up cycle, followed by complacency and collapse before the next cycle begins.  This allowed for a wide range of estimated cycle lengths.  So Calleo says 40 years, and J. W. Forrester (MIT business school, system dynamics) says 70 years and Ravi Batra says 60 years, and generically most considered the cycle about 50 years.  The cynics took over and mainly rejected the communist Kondratiev's theory, leaving it in the current state of mainstream disrepute for Long Cycles.

The Connection

            Why would nature drive the long cycle rather than man?  Why would cooling stimulate the economy and warming depress the economy?  I have three levels of proof.  1)  Direct:  A NASA (dry cleaners, not astronauts) study starts with an ideal 72 degrees Fahrenheit room temperature being the zero point.  74 degrees F. drops productivity 4%, 85 degrees F. drops productivity 18%, and 95-degrees F. drops productivity 35%.  Frederick Taylor (1856-1915), the first industrial engineer found that 64 degrees F. is the ideal temperature to lay railroad tracks, with higher slowing production.  2) Empirical:  My own 95-year (1895-1988) study of American temperature vs American economy in five-year increments (two per decade) shows a binary (up or down) conclusion that 15 of 18 periods show the economy increases when it cools or decreases when it warms.  And the Great Depression move from 1925-29 to 1930-1934 proves the point with temperature changes and economic changes dwarfing all the other five-year periods by far.  3) General:  The strongest economies in the world are generally in the temperate zone while the weakest economies in the world are mainly tropical zone economies.

Temperature Proofs

1. Northern Hemisphere vs. Southern Hemisphere.  The seasonal swing between the hemispheres mirrors the amount of Earth's land in each hemisphere, especially if you exclude the poles.
2. Evaporation Rates.  In Stephen Schneider's "Climate and Life" (1983) He gives a solar evaporation rate of 90% over ocean and 85% overall.  Simplifying and using algebra with 71% ocean 29% land this leads to 90% over ocean and 73% over land.   Which leads to 10% warming ocean and 27% warming land (triple).  Which is similar using other estimates out there including 67% in a class I audited that may have excluded ocean.  A 58% number for land may have excluded streams rivers and lakes.  Plants are 90% water and humans are 69% water, thus micro analysis only leads to confusing the issue.
3. 55 year moving average fits best over 1850-2010 period after 2012 Hurricane Sandy Reuschlein study.  Klyashtorin found a 55 year cycle in about a three way tie for highest La Place transform results in a 1400 year Greenland ice core study.  53 and 57 year fits tie for next highest fit, showing 55 fits best.

https://www.academia.edu/4090273/TEMPERATURE_CYCLE_PROOF_1910_1973_2025_1_p_2013

1. Stock Market Halloween to May Day effect.  The six coldest months (November to April) outperform the six warmest months (May to September) with a 6 percent better stock performance over a recent twenty-year period in America.  All The stock markets in the world are similar.  Why would the one Southern stock market do this also?  Australia sells to the Northern world.  Cooler is better than warmer for the economy.

Wide Variety of 54-year cycle events:          

Major Wars usually occur between dominant economic powers at the end of the cooling phase of the cycle when wealth is maximized and the high growth period ends.  Ukraine and Gaza wars fit the cycle, but are not included in this 12 years ago summary.                                                                             https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_List56_54yearCycle_3p_13

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2025, December 4), "Astronomic Climate Forcing" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.   Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Astronomic-Climate-Forcing,2025313717.aspx

Dr. Peace, Dr. Robert Reuschlein,

Real Economy Institute

Nobel Peace Prize Nominee 2016-2025

Website reaction suggests this was almost my year.

best contact  bobreuschlein@gmail.com

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