David Kostin, the Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in a note to clients “The U.S. election is just 81 days away and represents a significant risk to our year-end forecast.” Analysts often mention the uncertainty surrounding presidential elections in the United States, and this year is sure to be no exception. However, John Stoltzfus, CIO of Oppenheimer Asset Management told clients, “Embrace the uncertainty.” His research showed that historically, elections haven’t done much to prevent stocks from going up regardless of which political party prevails. Furthermore, Stoltzfus writes, “Uncertainty usually comes with opportunity and risk—two considerations essential in making investments.” A study by Deutsche Bank showed that in Presidential election years in which the contest is thought to be “close”, stocks generally go up until a month or so before the election, then pull back a bit, and then resume their uptrend from around the election through the end of the
The shortest bear market in history is over. The Nasdaq Composite and Standard & Poor’s 500 Indices finished at new highs last week. The stock market is considered to be a leading economic indicator, so strong stock market performance suggests economic improvement ahead. There was a caveat to last week’s gains, though. One large technology company was responsible for 60 percent of the S&P’s weekly gains (0.7 percent), reported Ben Levisohn of Barron’s . The same large company is also a component of the Dow Jones Industrials Index, which finished the week flat. Without that stock, the Dow would have finished the week lower. Levisohn wrote: “The S&P 500 might have hit a record last week, but most stocks have been having bad days. On Friday, for instance, just 220 stocks in the S&P 500 closed higher for the day, and that was far from an anomaly. The S&P 500’s cumulative advance/decline line – a measure of the number of stocks finishing higher vers
There was good news and bad news in last week’s employment report. The good news was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered better-than-expected data about employment. In July, the U.S. economy added about 1.8 million new jobs. That’s about 300,000 more than the Wall Street consensus forecast, according to Jeff Cox of CNBC , who reported, “…there were wide variations around the estimates as the pandemic’s resurgence dented plans to get the shuttered U.S. economy completely back online. Forecasts ranged from a decline of half a million jobs to a rise of 3 million…” The flip side of employment is unemployment. The U-3 unemployment rate, which reflects unemployed people who are actively seeking a job, declined in July. It has moved steadily lower during the last few months, from 14.7 percent in April to 10.2 percent in July. The U-6 rate, which includes unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged workers, has declined from 22.8 percent in April to 16.5 percent