I have witnessed many times how consultants and political operatives talked candidates into running for a certain office. The reason is obvious to me: they think that it is what the candidate wants to hear and if the candidate runs, the people around him earn money. And there is also virtually no risk involved as they are being paid whether the candidate wins or loses. I think that is exactly what happened to Donald Trump just a few weeks ago.

I have a simple rule for candidates. Among all the people who tell you that they will help and support your bid, maybe a third will vote for you. Another third doesn’t care either way. And the last third is straight forward lying into your face.

While my job is to help candidates win elections (and I’m pretty good at it), some of my biggest fans are actually potential candidates whom I told not to run. After running a survey and conducting a feasibility study, there were a few instances where I told candidates that it is not their time and that they should not run. It was probably something that they themselves felt deep inside, but that nobody else had told them. They listened and it saved them a lot of time, money, and humiliation. They were forever grateful.