Russian Blitzkrieg

From a military strategy perspective Russia is atthe cusp of invading Ukraine in the near future. Present-day the Russian military mobilization encirclingUkraine is past the point of no return for demobilization with the date ofinvasion solely up to Vladimir Putin and his generals.

One possible invasion date is after the winterOlympics’ closing ceremonies in China on February 20 so as not to “overshadow”Putin’s newest “best friend” in President Xi. It’s simply “professionalcourtesy” between the newly closely aligned autocrats.

DespiteUS and western defensive weaponry arriving in Ukraine, it’s too little, too lateto effectively defend against Russian might & firepower.

BecausePutin needs a swift and decisive military victory, I expect an aggressivethrust from Belarus to Kyiv, the shortest route to the Ukrainian capital. Thecapture of the capital “decapitates” the ability Ukrainian government and militarycommand to effectively coordinate the defense of other regions. Ironically thisstrategy may force the Ukrainian government to surrender far sooner than laterto spare lives.

EscapeFrom Kyiv

Accordingto mainstream media and blogger articles Kyiv residents don’t seem to have any departureplans in place as the Russian buildup continues. It seems as if they’re farless prepared to evacuate present-day than those residents near Chernobyl in1986 after the unexpectedly sudden nuclear accident.

Forthis reason the Russians might occupy the capital with most of its citizenry insitu. It remains to be seen whether the Russian military command has orders toallow civilians to flee west via a narrow escape corridor or under lockdown inthe city until further notice.

TheRussian decision will be political and strategic. Keeping Kyiv citizens means assuminga caretaker responsibility to feed those citizens. Allowing whoever wants toleave westward releases them from any humanitarian duties and deliberately floodsEuropean countries with refugees, specifically the bordering EU countries ofPoland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.

Thefollowing chart entitled Ukraine: The Crisis on the Verge of Catastrophe provided by the United Nations Office for theCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs, presents the grim humanitarian consequencesof a conflict:

Contingenton the duration and intensity of the conflict this crisis could easily becomefar worse than the projected 3.45 million displaced Ukrainians. Furthermore, Europeancountries beyond those bordering Ukraine are ill-equipped and stretched toprovide adequate food and shelter.

EuropeanSocio-Political Firestorm

Thepolitical battle to establish priorities as to which refugees will receive carewill be heated perhaps with the unofficial practice of a tiered ethnic/racial systembased on Christian Europeans, Christian non-Europeans and then Muslims.

Unable to return to their homes because they were destroyed or fearpolitical persecution, many Ukrainians might remain elsewhere in Europe for atleast the medium term, perhaps longer. There might be enough political pressureto accept Ukrainian refugees elsewhere such as Canada and the US.

Theshock to the system is the sudden displacement of upwards of 3.45 million Ukrainiansalready in Europe is considerably different than the piecemeal arrival ofsmaller groups of non-European refugees over many years.

Thefollowing chart entitled The Biggest Humanitarian Crisis of 2021 provided by the United Nations represents the currentstate of affairs with respect to humanitarian assistance worldwide. This chartwill undergo considerable revision once the Russians invade.

TheHumanitarian Hellscape

Reportsof the Russian military build-up does not mention any equipment or facilities beyondthe mobile military hospitals that could assist internally displaced Ukrainianrefugees, only to support Russian armed forces casualties. This seems to runcounter to Putin’s narrative of stating that Ukraine is an artificial countryand for that reason that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Yet throughdeliberate gross negligence the Russian government may fail to provide fortheir basic needs and human rights post-invasion and during occupation.

Althoughthere has been discussion amongst EU countries with respect to handling arefugee crisis from Ukraine, there has been far less humanitarian mobilization thanRussian war mobilization. This proportional lack of effort and preparation willonly exacerbate a brutal problem.

Withrespect to the international donor community, the 2022 UN Refugee Agency (UN HCR)Refugee Global Appeal for Ukraine is $22.5 million as of 8 February 2022 withonly 8% funded. Despite the looming conflict Ukraine donations are a tough sellbecause Ukraine is considered a middle-income country whose citizenry have moreeconomic resources that those from Afghanistan and Yemen whose fund-raising targetsare $5 billion and $1.7 billion respectfully.

The Viral Contagion

Throughout human history disease runs rampartduring wartime regardless of medical advancements. The conflict in Ukraine is amatter of exceptionally bad timing because Ukraine and Russia have one of thelowest European vaccination rates hovering at 40%.

Imagine how those rates will explode and spiral outof control not only with the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugeesfleeing to nearby European countries and perhaps outside Europe like Canada andthe US.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) neitherUkraine nor Russia is on track to reach the WHO’s mid-2022 70% vaccinationgoal. The following chart entitled 122Countries on Track to Miss Covid-19 Vaccine Goal provided by Our World inData indicates the global vaccination state of affairs.

HijackingHuman Rights

Conquestsby dictatorships and autocratic governments do not work out well for theconquered who are always subject to the same or worse repressive treatment asthe conqueror’s own citizenry.

Therehave been numerous anecdotal stories of human rights abuses and political persecutionin the pro-Russian Donbas region and targeted population in Crimea anecdotal.One released prisoner commented, “This is not the Soviet prisons of the 1950sand 1960s, rather of the 1930s and 1940s.”

JingoisticJustification | The Virtual Curtain

Russia’snew Iron Curtain won’t be the physically imposingly garish Soviet built wall,rather a Virtual Curtain. Putin’s narrative will be disseminated by his sophisticatedpropaganda public relations hacker army based everywhere worldwide. This includesthe unknowing cooperation of his Fifth Column, the woke group in westernsocieties, to legally mute anti-Russian opinion and policies.

Putinis deploying on a large scale his array of poisons, literal and figurative, whetherto targeted individuals or propaganda poisons domestically and internationally throughthe injection of noxious narratives.

Putinbelieves that a divisive and indecisive US and its allies do not represent aneffective antidote. For this reason Putin is gambling that Russia issufficiently “inoculated” against harsher and more comprehensive US sanctionsshould he invade Ukraine.

Notwithstandingautocracies are inherently brittle and those who engage in over-reachinevitably crumble in the worst way because their brief dominance is often drivenby a strong man’s greed and ego which have no checks & balances.

© Copyright 2022 Cerulean Council

The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient,beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments ongeopolitical dynamics and global urban security.