Monday, January 31, 2022
Regardless whetherthere’s a last-minute agreement between the US/Nato and Russia that prevents awar in Ukraine, the one party who has already won is the Military IndustrialComplex (MIC). As the saber rattling intensifies pushing up the level ofhawkish bellicosity the MIC is already envisioning a near future governmental monetarywindfall.
After the Russian armedforces’ recent hands-on experiences in Crimea, Syria and cameo “crowd control”mission in Kazakhstan, Putin’s resurrected vastly improved and upgraded armedforces have gone to the next level and encircled Ukraine. It’s a pocket versionof the Soviet military, but good enough to serve his purposes to achieve thenecessary buffer zones in the Near Abroad.
Furthermore, it’s notfar-fetched that certain elements of the Russian military brass are biting atthe bit to try out their new “toys” against the best that the US/Nato has tooffer.
After losing manyformer Soviet-block countries to Nato membership since Putin’s ascension to theRussian presidency in 1999, Ukraine represents Russia’s “jewel in the crown”that is at the cusp of being enveloped by more than just western values. ForPutin, Ukraine is personal.
For the purposes ofreversing Russia’s military’s embarrassing impotence during the early 2000sbecause of antiquated often non-operable equipment, today Russia is going “allin” with their modern military hardware and software.
For this reason the MICand arms dealers are biting at the bit to find out Russia’s battlefieldperformance with modern homegrown equipment and operated by Russians, notproxies, under actual battle conditions. Slim Pickens’s “toe to toe with the Ruskies” comment in Dr.Strangelove is accurate not quite but close enough.
The followingcomparative chart entitled the Russia-UkrainianMilitary Imbalanceprovided by GlobalFirepower underscores the gross inequities in ground, aerialand naval categories.
Ukraine’s Soviet-era equipmenthas been upgraded but falls far short of the 21st century Russianmodern equipment and firepower. For this reason before Ukraine is re-equippedwith technologically equivalent materiel thus this eliminating any militaryoption, Putin feels compelled to take military action sooner than later amongmany other reasons.
It goes without saying,regardless of the country, Russia being not exception, the military brass isanxious to try out their new “toys” especially against “a worthy adversary”since Ukrainian defenses will be supplemented by non-combat US/Natosurveillance.
The MIC observationsand assessments extend to Russian military tactical strategies, execution andinteroperability with ground and aerial forces supported by cyber-tools. Thesecapabilities will be tested against Ukrainian forces whose overall defenseshave been furnished by US/Nato forces and supported by non-combat surveillancetechnicians which is far more robust than terrorists’ weaponry in farawayfailed states.
Russian militaryaggression in Europe and subjugation of a sovereign neighboring non-NatoEuropean country not only invigorates Nato’s mission but also awakens the MIC.The MIC will leverage this scenario to justify requesting over-the-top fundingfor the purposes of preventing a domino effect in Europe against the usualboogeymen: Russia and Communism. Ironically this justification comes at a timewhen many democracies themselves are becoming increasingly authoritarian withheavy-handed policies on their own citizenry because of the pandemic.
Any Russian aggressionwould provide long-awaited answers to the whispers in dark corners thatprovides an up-close opportunity of how the Russians would conduct an actuallarge-scale military operation using their most advanced equipment.
The largest defensecontractors include Boeing, Northrup Grumman, General Dynamics, RaytheonIndustries and Lockheed Martin are necessary and represent the tip of the spearto protect America in a dangerous world with highly capable and motivatedenemies such as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea but their financial avariceis legendary. Think of the billions wasted resulting in a negative return oninvestment during our endless wars in the Middle East and Afghanistan overseveral administrations.
The following chart entitledThe World’s LargestArms-Producing Companies provided by the Stockholm International Peace ResearchInstitute (SIPRI).
Increased governmentalfunding for MIC initiatives will inevitably “crowd out” funding for much neededinfrastructure, healthcare and education from a shrinking budgetary pie. Thisis akin to ironically the Russian story about the father who returns home totell his children that his wages have been slashed. The children then ask thefather, “Does that mean you’ll drink less?” to which the father replies, “No.It means that you’ll eat less.”Even if there’s a modestincrease in US government funding for MIC projects, it would still grease thecontinued depletion of meager domestic resources as Americans suffer a greaterdegradation of quality of life.
To offset an extendedperiod of reduced Russian exports to highly reliant Eu countries, the USgovernment might be compelled to ship energy resources triggering a spike indomestic energy prices for all sectors.
In sum a US defenseindustry that has been unable to reign in costs, will request and probablyreceive generous US government funding. Trophy weaponry to defend US alliesoverseas ignores a hollowed out American economy and restive citizenry forcapitalistic purposes under the guise of righteous ideology.
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The Cerulean Council isa NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarianperspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urbansecurity.