As confirmed by governmentaland non-governmental sources Russia is positioning its armed forces in apincer/encirclement for an imminent invasion thrust by land and/or sea intoUkraine.

Furthermore, 21^stwarfare will feature weaponry such as cyberwarfare that directs and enhancesthe military hardware. Finally let’s not forget the required historical internaldestabilizer – the Fifth Column.

BY LAND

There are two sectorsthrough which Russian armed forces will traverse:

Northern Approach | TheHot Zone

The first is throughRussia’s ally Belarus located on Ukraine’s northern border. This sector isgeographically closer to Kiev, the Ukrainian capital than the other entry sectors.Suspiciously convenient the Russian government announced a large militaryexercise called Allied Resolve 2022 scheduled from February 10-20that places thousands of troops along the Ukrainian-Belarus border.

Despite the tantalizinglyshort distance to Kiev, this zone possesses some difficult geographical andmanmade obstacles. With respect to the former, this area is swampy and denselypopulated which would make progress towards Kiev arduous.

With respect to thelatter, Russian troops in Belarus would have to pass through the 1,000 squaremile area hot zone of Chernobyl called the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone.This is where the former nuclear plant is located that imploded in 1986 and whoseon-site and surrounding area still retains lethal levels of radioactivity.

Dare if they must, thismanmade Forbidden Zone neatly fits the quote by Dante Alighieri, Italianpoet & philosopher, “The road to paradise (Kiev) begins in hell.” In short Russianforces must march through a toxic wasteland just like in an apocalyptic, sci-fiB-movie bringing to life cyberpunk on the battlefield.

This area could beconsidered Russia’s version of the Ardennes offensive in 1940 utilized by NaziGermany through a thick forest to surprise and trap the French armies at thebeginning of WW II. The mystery remains whether the Russian armed forces inBelarus will be used as nothing more than a prop or feint to pull Ukrainian’smanpower away from Kiev.

For these reasonsthere’s a question whether and to what extent Ukraine’s natural defense willdefend this northern sector given the difficulty and radioactive dangers of passage.

Eastern Ukraine |Weaponizing Food Production

The second land areafor invasion is in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine populated by thepro-Russian separatists. On one hand this is the furthest area from Kiev, about370 miles, so a western advance will take weeks even with minimal Ukrainianopposition because of extended supply lines.

Nonetheless, Russianmilitary advances will weaponize Ukraine’s food production by occupying thebreadbasket southern and eastern regions thus effectively cutting toff future foodsupplies by interrupting spring planting and summer/fall harvesting.

BY SEA

The Russian navy hassuperior forces in the Black Sea enhanced by their utilization of a naval basein recently annexed Crimea which gives them total maritime domination of thesouthern region.

To underscore Russia’soverwhelming naval domination, the following chart provided by News Reportsentitled The Military Imbalancein The Black Seacompares Russian and Ukrainian military naval power.

Furthermore, accordingto numerous media and government reports, Russia is in the process ofaugmenting the above stated inventory with 140 warships,60 aircraft, 10,000military servicemen and 1,000 pieces military equipment. The most likely targetis Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port city.

·       Atminimum this naval force can blockade the port splitting Ukrainian forces todefend against a possible amphibious assault.

·       Atmaximum Russia could attempt an amphibious assault to take the port.

The latter is unlikelybecause such operations are extraordinarily complex and Russia has neverattempted an amphibious assault in its history. The initial strategy is a navalblockade of Odesa. The other option, if the opportunity presents, itself if Ukrainianforces offer little resistance and make a Russian landing feasible.

Regardless of thelogistical difficulties, Russian encirclement on multiple fronts represent possiblefeints that are designed to stretch Ukrainian forces and make them unable toproperly defend the main offensive thrust(s) wherever that make occur.

Some of the final componentsprior to an actual invasion include the following:

·       Medicalequipment and mobile field hospitals

·       Ammunitionstockpiles

·       Supportingsecurity services

Finally, it may not betoo far-fetched if the Russian miliary makes unusually good progress to Kievand copies the US’ “Thunder Run” conducted in 5 April 2003 during the Baghdadinvasion. US heavy armor entered and roared through Baghdad in a psychologicallydemoralizing show of force. Symbolically Russian tanks might roar through Kievin a symbolic show of domination.

Russia’s Fifth Column |Elite Sleeper Cells

An extremelyuncomfortable truth is Russia, post-invasion, can confidently insert a pro-Russianpuppet leadership across wide a spectrum of the military, politics and diverse industries.For decades Ukraine high levels of corruption have plagued the public domain.

According to TransparencyInternational, an independent, non-governmental organization,their Corruption PerceptionsIndexCPI) is based on 13 data sets. Ukraine ranks 117 of 180 relativeto other countries.

The more accurateindicator is Ukraine’s score of 33 which hasn’t improved much since their 26score in 2012. A score of 0 is totally corrupt; a score of 100 is “very clean.”Furthermore, according to their CPI, Transparency International has determinedthat Eastern Europe and Central Asia are the world’s second most corrupt regions.

For this reason Russia probablyhas had a superior insider view of the Ukrainian military for many years. Forthis reason the Ukrainian military game plan has already been compromisedgiving Russia a huge tactical and strategic advantage. Quoting Sun Tzu in thebook the Art of War, “Every battle is won before it is ever fought.”

Occupation is an extremelyexpensive and hazardous duty, especially Ukraine which is the second largestcountry in Europe in landmass after Russia. This is why Russia needs the ferventcollaboration, cooperation of key elements of Ukraine’s political, business andmilitary leadership (not necessarily in power present-day) to supportpro-Russian policies and domestic security.

Whether by design ordefault (bribes or threats) such leadership has already been identified and whohave agreed to assume their positions in the new government. This could onlyhave been achieved after many years so in fact they are de facto high-levelsleepers.

Russia’s UltimateObjective

Post-invasion Russiawill politically “neuter” the Ukrainian government by installing a pro-RussianUkrainian leadership to slavishly kowtow to Moscow. Putin’s historical revisionistrhetoric will become reality in “restoring” Russian dominance in eastern Europewith his newly acquired “jewel in the crown” (Ukraine) while casting a darkshadow over the remaining former Soviet-era bloc countries currently alignedwith the west.

THE FALLOUT

Global Market Mayhem 

With respect to globalmarkets expect an Icarus Moment featuring extreme market volatility withspike in energy and food prices as articulated in detail in my previouslypublished articles Energy and Gold Pricesto Soar After Russian Invasion, January 17, 2022 and Global Food Supply andPrice Risk with Russian Aggression, January 21, 2022.

Public Relations CyberOffensive

Once the invasionbegins there will be an overwhelming avalanche of misinformation,disinformation and outright propaganda. And that’s just from western mainstreammedia without deliberate Russian or other governmental interference forthe purposes of achieving the most readership clicks. 

How it Plays Out

The great unknown is towhat extent the Ukrainian military will fight back. Although Russia hasoverwhelming technical, military, manpower and firepower advantages, like theUS in Vietnam and Afghanistan, the indigenous guerilla forces neutralized America’sfirepower and ultimately avoided long-term total subjugation.

On the other hand Ukrainemight be rapidly overwhelmed and collapse within weeks. The US has a poor trackrecord of furnishing their allies with last-minute shipments of weaponry toward off invading forces except to Israel in the 1973 war.

Interestingly thisurgent military support was sent to western supported albeit highly corruptgovernments, that had little public credibility and were vulnerable to a highlymotivated enemy. The only difference between the Viet Cong/North Vietnamese andTaliban is that the Russian army has nukes.

Putin’s Post-InvasionAmbitions

The invasion andsubsequent placement of a pro-Russian Ukrainian government must be reasonablyquick & decisive. A Pyrrhic victory featuring heavy casualties would resultin a loss-of-face for Putin, domestic blowback and possibly trigger his arrestor coup attempt.

Contingent on Putin’ssuccess in Ukraine, he will certainly be emboldened to aggressively undermineand weaken the former Soviet satellite countries some of which are present-dayNATO members, through cyber-thuggery and divisive rhetoric.

©Copyright 2022 Cerulean Council

TheCerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient,beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments ongeopolitical dynamics and global urban security.