There’s a point about the politics of the impeachment that I would like to emphasize: Speaker Nancy Pelosi doesn’t have a race next year. I mean, yes, she will have to run for reelection as all congressmen and congresswomen. But her district, the 12th congressional district of California, is one of the most democratic in the country. It has been held by Democrats since 1949. 13% of registered voters there are Republicans. Pelosi won last year with 86.6% of the vote. This circumstance is a huge advantage and gives her tremendous freedom during the impeachment.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, will have to run for reelection. His survey numbers are already dangerously low for an incumbent president. Don’t forget that Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon were already in their second terms when their respective impeachment processes started. Donald Trump is likely to head into his reelection campaign as an impeached president. And even Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the senate, has a race for reelection next year. Kentucky is a clearly Republican state, but he is actually not all that popular at home so he can’t completely ignore his own race. After getting reelected, his main priority will probably be to keep the Republican majority in the senate. In order to achieve this, he cannot entirely dismiss the needs of moderate Republicans. That’s where his calculation might start to look different from the one Donald Trump is making.