The Current State of Affairs
Like the crafty veteran jockey of a young thoroughbred, NYC mayoral Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani burst ahead and took a commanding early lead ahead of a field, notably fellow Democrats Mayor Eric Adams (the incumbent) and former NYS governor Andrew Cuomo, that is confused and disorganized.
Adams's campaign is heavily overburdened and distracted with endless alleged corruption and political scandal. Cuomo's administration faced its own imbroglios during his tenure as governor.
The present-day political environment was created by these same established political figures. In other words, neither have the level of credibility worthy of future leadership as mayor of NYC.
The weakness and divisiveness of the other candidates allowed Mamdani to take a commanding lead in the polls. The voters realize that, if elected, Adams and Cuomo will revert back to their past NYC and NYS leadership practices with only cosmetic policy changes. The street-smart citizenry is aware that Adams's and Cuomo's purpose is to prevent a Mamdani victory, not an improved NYC, each of whom had full terms opportunities to achieve.
The GOP Alternative
On the other side of the political aisle, Mamdani's GOP opponent Curtis Sliwa has several major disadvantages:
- He's unjustly tagged a MAGA/Trump supporter simply because of his party affiliation. His policy proposals have always been independent of the GOP leadership elsewhere and his efforts have been NYC-specific for the public good.
- Trump's recent public comment that Sliwa is a long shot "lightweight" damages his chances.
- For this reason, he has no major corporate or political endorsements because of his refusal to be bought. High credibility, low financing.
Sliwa unjustifiably suffers from "guilt by association" political optics and a dearth of major campaign funding, which restricts him to social media promotion.
Sliwa, a native New Yorker, born & raised in the hard scrabble nabe of Brownsville, "one of us", led "hands on" the crime fighting volunteers of mostly black and brown youth called the Guardian Angels when NYC was a dystopian city during the 1970s and 1980s.
Despite the fact that Sliwa has more hands-on, on the ground leadership experience, public credibility and street gravitas than all the mayoral candidates combined, he may not garner enough votes to defeat Mamdani.
Mamdani: The Democrats' New Hope
In 2024, the radicalized Democrats lost the White House and the Congress to their nemesis, Donald Trump.
Mamdani's present-day lead in the polls provide hope for them to snag valuable political territory as an important steppingstone to the 2026 mid-terms and eventually the presidential election in 2028.
Despite his woeful inexperience, Mamdani represents what the Democrats refused to put forth in their badly botched, failed 2024 presidential campaign: a dynamic, young, photogenic cult leader espousing all the policies the Left want to achieve.
For this reason, campaign performance and post-election performance must be consistent This is why his administration will be populated by mostly the same experienced campaigners that will offset his inexperience.
NYC: Too Big to Control & Dominate
Much has been discussed as to what extent NYC will be completely transformed into a socialist or even Communist municipality and resulting chaos should Mamdani win.
Ironically, post-election victory, Mamdani is setting himself up for a major disappointment and possible backlash from his supporters. The positive intensity shown him could reverberate with the equivalent negative intensity.
His proposed economically impossible Pied Piper promises for radical expenditure and policy changes are seriously constrained.
According to the article entitled Art of the Impossible in The Economist [August 30-September 5, 2025 edition], the NYC GDP in 2024 was $1.3 trillion. This was double the GDP of Argentina and greater than all but 16 countries in the world! NYC spending is limited by the NYS governor, legislative body and NYS law.
The NYC budget received 10% from the federal government and 17% from NYS, expenditures which are strictly dictated by these parties. Many of these supplement on-going or new NYC projects.
The best Mamdani, or any mayor can do, is tweak the laws through modifications or waivers, all of which will be hotly debated and whose amounts will not bring about the desired objectives.
This is why, after testing the boundaries of his constituency and the public with bombastic rhetoric, he is cleverly backing off, tapping the brakes and merely soft-pedaling on proposed draconian changes.
The Imaginary Blue Tidal Wave
As a politically "blue" and sanctuary city (if not legally certainly in spirit), the risk of it plunging into a deep and hard socialist/communist urban dystopia seems highly likely given the shrieking rabble-rousing.
But because of real world economics and real politik, any radical changes will be limited and superficial. The most important element of a Mamdani victory is if NYC "falls" to a socialist mayor, many other US cities may follow suit leading into the 2026 midterms and carryover into the 2028 presidential election.
On the streets of NYC, the "dogs of war" may be unleashed post-election. The Left will "celebrate" with mass marches supplemented by a wave of terror by Antifa and other hooligans against all those who stand in their way.
Other targets include large capitalist entities such as mega-corporations and their C-suite executives, most of whom have HQ in NYC or a large representative office.
This will halt or even reverse the mandated return to the office as workers will insist on continuing to work remotely for fear of physical harm.
Conclusion & Takeaways
Firstly, despite the quantum leap in technology, polls are still stuck in the 20th century with respect to accurately gauging the lead of the frontrunner as well as the positions of other candidates.
It's not the technology itself, rather the profound human bias that creates the polling questions and don't necessarily reflect the sentiment of the majority of the citizenry.
Secondly is the fact that even in mid-September many powerful organizations and politicians have not formally endorsed their preferred candidates. Endorsements can trigger powerful swings in sentiment in supporting a particular candidate that can dramatically turn the tide and narrow formerly canyon-wide leads.
Should Mamdani win, his honeymoon will be short-lived, constrained by expenditure limitations, an ever-growing deficit, a recalcitrant Trump White House for financial aid and an implacable bureaucracy that can easily and legally create logjams in implementing official mandates.
Simply put, a democracy's checks & balances are not just political, rather economic which puts limits on power, whatever the political party.
The Democrats' greater objective is not effective and responsible NYC governance, rather nationally in politically controlling a major US city as the launch pad leading into the 2026 mid-terms to thwart Trump's governmental reorganization.
For the aforementioned reasons, a Mamdani victory will not considerably change a New Yorker's way of life.
© Copyright 2025 Cerulean Council LLC
The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.