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The Current State of Affairs

Like the crafty veteran jockey ofa young thoroughbred, NYC mayoral Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani burstahead and took a commanding early lead ahead of a field, notably fellowDemocrats Mayor Eric Adams (the incumbent) and former NYS governor AndrewCuomo, that is confused and disorganized.

Adams’s campaign is heavilyoverburdened and distracted with endless alleged corruption and politicalscandal. Cuomo’s administration faced its own imbroglios during histenure as governor.

The present-day politicalenvironment was created by these same established political figures. In otherwords, neither have the level of credibility worthy of future leadership asmayor of NYC.

The weakness and divisiveness ofthe other candidates allowed Mamdani to take a commanding lead in the polls. Thevoters realize that, if elected, Adams and Cuomo will revert back to their pastNYC and NYS leadership practices with only cosmetic policy changes. The street-smartcitizenry is aware that Adams’s and Cuomo’s purpose is to prevent a Mamdanivictory, not an improved NYC, each of whom had full terms opportunities toachieve.

The GOP Alternative

On the other side of thepolitical aisle, Mamdani’s GOP opponent Curtis Sliwa has several majordisadvantages:

·      He’s unjustly tagged a MAGA/Trumpsupporter simply because of his party affiliation. His policy proposals havealways been independent of the GOP leadership elsewhere and his efforts havebeen NYC-specific for the public good.

·      Trump’s recent public commentthat Sliwa is a long shot “lightweight” damages his chances.

·      For this reason, he has no major corporateor political endorsements because of his refusal to be bought. Highcredibility, low financing.

Sliwa unjustifiably suffers from “guiltby association” political optics and a dearth of major campaign funding, which restrictshim to social media promotion.

Sliwa, a native New Yorker, born& raised in the hard scrabble nabe of Brownsville, “one of us”, led “handson” the crime fighting volunteers of mostly black and brown youth called theGuardian Angels when NYC was a dystopian city during the 1970s and 1980s.

Despite the fact that Sliwa hasmore hands-on, on the ground leadership experience, public credibility andstreet gravitas than all the mayoral candidates combined, he may not garnerenough votes to defeat Mamdani.

Mamdani: The Democrats’ New Hope

In 2024, the radicalized Democratslost the White House and the Congress to their nemesis, Donald Trump.

Mamdani’s present-day lead in thepolls provide hope for them to snag valuable political territory as animportant steppingstone to the 2026 mid-terms and eventually the presidentialelection in 2028.

Despite his woeful inexperience,Mamdani represents what the Democrats refused to put forth in their badlybotched, failed 2024 presidential campaign: a dynamic, young, photogenic cultleader espousing all the policies the Left want to achieve.

For this reason, campaign performanceand post-election performance must be consistent This is why his administrationwill be populated by mostly the same experienced campaigners that will offset hisinexperience.

NYC: Too Big to Control &Dominate

Much has been discussed as to whatextent NYC will be completely transformed into a socialist or even Communist municipalityand resulting chaos should Mamdani win.

Ironically, post-electionvictory, Mamdani is setting himself up for a major disappointment and possiblebacklash from his supporters. The positive intensity shown him couldreverberate with the equivalent negative intensity.

His proposed economicallyimpossible Pied Piper promises for radical expenditure and policy changes areseriously constrained.

According to the article entitledArt of the Impossible in The Economist [August30-September 5, 2025 edition], the NYC GDP in 2024 was $1.3 trillion. This wasdouble the GDP of Argentina and greater than all but 16 countries in the world!NYC spending is limited by the NYS governor, legislative body and NYS law.

The NYC budget received 10% fromthe federal government and 17% from NYS, expenditures which are strictlydictated by these parties. Many of these supplement on-going or new NYCprojects.

The best Mamdani, or any mayorcan do, is tweak the laws through modifications or waivers, all of which willbe hotly debated and whose amounts will not bring about the desired objectives.

This is why, after testing theboundaries of his constituency and the public with bombastic rhetoric, he is cleverlybacking off, tapping the brakes and merely soft-pedaling on proposed draconianchanges.

The Imaginary Blue Tidal Wave

As a politically “blue” and sanctuarycity (if not legally certainly in spirit), the risk of it plunging into a deepand hard socialist/communist urban dystopia seems highly likely given theshrieking rabble-rousing.

But because of real worldeconomics and real politik, any radical changes will be limited andsuperficial. The most important element of a Mamdani victory is if NYC “falls”to a socialist mayor, many other US cities may follow suit leading into the2026 midterms and carryover into the 2028 presidential election.

On the streets of NYC, the “dogsof war” may be unleashed post-election. The Left will “celebrate” with massmarches supplemented by a wave of terror by Antifa and other hooligans againstall those who stand in their way.

Other targets include largecapitalist entities such as mega-corporations and their C-suite executives, mostof whom have HQ in NYC or a large representative office.

This will halt or even reversethe mandated return to the office as workers will insist on continuing to workremotely for fear of physical harm.

Conclusion & Takeaways

Firstly, despite the quantum leapin technology, polls are still stuck in the 20^th century withrespect to accurately gauging the lead of the frontrunner as well as the positionsof other candidates.

It’s not the technology itself,rather the profound human bias that creates the polling questions and don’t necessarilyreflect the sentiment of the majority of the citizenry.

Secondly is the fact that even inmid-September many powerful organizations and politicians have not formallyendorsed their preferred candidates. Endorsements can trigger powerful swingsin sentiment in supporting a particular candidate that can dramatically turnthe tide and narrow formerly canyon-wide leads.

Should Mamdani win, his honeymoonwill be short-lived, constrained by expenditure limitations, an ever-growingdeficit, a recalcitrant Trump White House for financial aid and an implacablebureaucracy that can easily and legally create logjams in implementing officialmandates.

Simply put, a democracy’s checks& balances are not just political, rather economic which puts limits onpower, whatever the political party.

The Democrats’ greater objectiveis not effective and responsible NYC governance, rather nationally in politicallycontrolling a major US city as the launch pad leading into the 2026 mid-termsto thwart Trump’s governmental reorganization.

For the aforementioned reasons, aMamdani victory will not considerably change a New Yorker’s way of life.

© Copyright 2025Cerulean Council LLC

The CeruleanCouncil is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon,contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics andglobal urban security.