The bad news for bluefin tuna this year may become the good news for survival of bluefin tuna over time according to a recent study.

The bad news is that between 2014 and 2017 the total allowable catch (TAC) for eastern bluefin tuna was increased by more than 75%.  In Eastern Canada the catch of the western stock increased by 15% in 2015 and then remained the same for 2016 and 2017.  The western quota remained stable to allow the still depleted stock to recover.

The bluefin caught in Eastern Canada, like the bluefin caught out of Boston, is of two stocks.  There is a western stock that primarily spawns in the Gulf of Mexico and an eastern one, that spawns in the Mediterranean.  The quota for western Atlantic bluefin tuna, set by ICCAT, is shared by Canada, USA, Japan, Bermuda, France (St. Pierre and Miquelon), and Mexico.

The study looked at the Japanese sashimi auction market, which serves as the single leading market for global bluefin tunas.  They saw the price of bluefin go down with the rise in catch on the market.  The fishermen paid for this by getting less for the same catch.  The study found that if the fishermen had been permitted to increase their catch proportional with TAC increase the fishermen would still be making less money.

A more prudent approach for both supporting additional growth of the western stock, and profitable fisheries for western fishermen, concludes the study report, would be to stabilize bluefin quotas.  Catch less tuna and get paid more per catch.

Unfortunately, the new stock assessment, with the benefit of hindsight, predicts a decline in tuna abundance. The strong year class of 2003 from the Mediterranean Sea, thought to be driving the bluefin increase will be fished out.

Market forces are a good reason to keep down the catch of bluefin.  The smaller the catch, the rarer the fish, the better the pay for fishermen and restaurateurs.