Albert Goldson CEO ofthe Cerulean Council provided his contrarian perspectives on Putin’s longevity& “de-nazification” of Ukraine, Budapest Memorandum and President Xi’sperspectives during an interview on the KMJFresno podcast, 24 February 2022. The following is an enhanced summary withmore detailed explanation on the following issues:

The Budapest Memorandum

This memorandum was signedon December 5, 1994 between the US, UK and Russia to include Ukraine, Belarusand Kazakhstan.

The gist of thememorandum was the removal of 1,900 intercontinental ballistic missiles in silosin Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine independence and sovereignty of its borders.

Three key points

1.   TheUS would compensate Ukraine for the extraction of the highly enriched uraniumfrom those weapons.

2.   TheUS would assume the cost of the deconstructing its nuclear infrastructure.

3.   Assurancesof Ukrainian security.

During this time Boris Yelstinwas the Russian president presiding over the former Soviet Union denuded of anymilitary or political leverage.

Fast-forward to present-dayPresident Putin claims that he is not dishonoring the memorandum because the2014 Ukrainian revolution which ousted the pro-Russian president replacing himwith a pro-western one was, in his opinion, a new state. For this reason Putin reasonedthat Russia had no obligation to honor the agreement.

From a legalperspective this is a memorandum which is not legally binding nor does it haveany enforcement mechanism. It does however indicate in vague and general terms,that the aggrieved party has the right to protest or even retaliate throughassurances, not guarantees.

The US is honoring thismemorandum by retaliating economically, not militarily, with a series ofprogressively draconian sanctions against Russia. Because Ukraine is not a Natomember, the Nato is not legally bound to defend Ukraine militarily underArticle 5 which stipulates that if any Nato country comes under militaryattack, then they have a right to respond accordingly.

Putin's De-Nazification Mandate

Putin’s plans for the “de-nazification”is an emotional trigger. The word “Nazi” preloads the images and thoughts of themost horrific modern atrocities. By using this phrase Putin is accusing the Ukrainiangovernment of ethnic cleansing of Russian history, culture and people.

For this reason hejustifies that the invasion gives the Russian government the moral right to punishthe Ukrainian leadership and “de-nazify” those “evil” thoughts from theUkrainian citizenry and assume their true Russian identities.

Furthermore, as a furtherstep, Russia would “re-educate” Ukrainians and provide them Putin’s imaginedhistory, to become Russians just as the Chinese are doing with the Uighurs andthe Japanese did to the Koreans during their annexation and occupation from1905-1945. In fact a leftover result of that brutal occupation is that many in1905 lasting until 1945. Many elderly Koreans’ first language is Japanese withKorean as their second language.

Strongman Putin’sLongevity & Vulnerability

Putin assumed the presidencyin late 1999 still in the rubble of the collapse Soviet Union at the nadir ofRussian power. There was still political chaos and a hollow military. For thisreason Putin lacked any leverage to present former Soviet satellite countries thatserved as their buffer since WW II from joining Nato.

Since that time Putinhas reinvigorated the Russian armed forces through the robust revenue of energyexports creating an efficient, modernized army. Though it falls short of the brutalmight of the Soviet army, its newly defined purpose is to secure and dominateRussia’s Near Abroad which includes Ukraine.

The Russian military has“cut its teeth” in gaining some experience in their aerial operations in theMiddle East from its Syrian bases and the soft annexation of Crimea and theDonbas which require more logistical practice for the former ad limited battlepractice for the latter.

Russia’s nextpresidential election is scheduled (by law) on Sunday, March 17, 2024. Putin iseligible to run for two more 6-year terms. I believe that Putin can only beremoved from office, like most autocrats, through the collaboration of the militaryand upper echelon of society in key industrial and financial sectors.

The salt of the earthprotests provides dramatic visuals and heartfelt individual stories formainstream media coverage who express their fury at government policies howeverthey rarely remove a leader. However they “inspire” the military and elite asan indication of the “will of the people” to justify triggering a palace coup.

Putin has copious enemies,typical of a strongman, and probably some within his ever shrinking innercircle whose “false flag” was the invasion of Ukraine and are planning theRussian version of Operation Valkyrie, the name of the operation to unseatHitler in July 1944.

China | President Xi’s Perspectives

I personally believethat president Xi insanely jealous that Putin has launched a major militaryoffensive in Europe to capture a country with shared identities withoutincurring a military response from US/Nato.

Xi’s an autocraticalliance of convenience with Russia is to combat a common enemy: the US. Present-dayChina is engaged mostly in “checkbook diplomacy” particularly through theirBelt & Road Initiative vs Russian militaristic thuggery.

China can boast  impressive military numbers and trophyweaponry but it has not been tested which requires the seamless at all levels ofpolitical leadership, military, “grunts” and weaponry vs the US, the mostseasoned battle tested empire through its endless wars.

Nonetheless there are fewlegally binding commitments between these autocratic entities despite the many publicrelations photos and bombastic anti-western statements, and military saber-rattling.Because Xi matches Putin’s continental-sized egos Xi may be compelled toaccelerate his plan to destabilize Taiwan.

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