The Herman Trend Alert

September 19, 2019

A Blood Test to Forecast Death

Many of us have what is called a CBC (Complete Blood Count) as a part of our annual physical exams. The tests measure a number of parameters and the results give us guidance as to what we need to be doing to stay healthy. What if there were a blood test that could go further. . .a test that could actually forecast how much longer you might live?

Years in development

For a long time now, researchers have been trying to develop a test that could reliably and easily forecast just how long a person will live. In other words they wanted to identify the major mortality risk factors which will let people know how vulnerable they are. In general, blood tests are a great way to determine health, since labs are ubiquitous and equipped to assess blood samples.

Startling Results

A new study published in Nature Communications describes scientists' latest efforts. In their test population, the researchers report that of more than 44,000 healthy patients, their blood tests were around 80 percent accurate in predicting mortality risk within five to ten years.

The Patients

The test subjects ranged in age from 18 to 109 years, provided blood samples and had their health events tracked for up to 16 years. The researchers analyzed a group of 226 so-called metabolites, or by-products of things that various cells and tissues in the body pour into the blood stream for circulation and removal. From these markers, the scientists reduced their list to 14. They determined that those 14 markers together, along with the person's sex, provided a snapshot of that patient's health risk, and thus, their risk of passing away in the medium-term future (five to ten years).

The Scientist's Methodology

To determine their findings, the scientists compared the people who had died during the study to those who were still alive and isolated which blood markers were statistically and meaningfully different. Even after the scientists accounted for potential confusing factors, the link between the final 14 factors and mortality remained significant; they even looked at other factors affecting survival, including age, sex, and cause of death.

Not ready yet

Though the test is not ready yet for doctors to use in the clinic with their patients, the study does establish a foundation for a test in the near future. The test will be most useful at the outset for assessing older patients and guiding treatment decisions, because the 14 metabolites represent a range of processes, including the individual's ability to break down of fat and glucose, inflammation and fluid balance in the body, the impact a range of chronic ailments, and even the person's ability to recover from illness or injury.

The Future of Using Tests Like this One

As medical science is able to harness the advanced computing power coming online to create insights for the likelihood of developing disease, expect to see more tests like this one becoming; we have only begun to witness this application of data science to medicine.

Special thanks to Bob Pritchard. For raising our consciousness to this important development.

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