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Extreme Situation Forecast
From:
Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert Dr. Robert Reuschlein, Empire and Climate Expert
Madison , WI
Saturday, August 15, 2020

 

Charge

"For an upcoming story I am looking to speak with researchers who work on computer models of "apocalyptic" or extreme situations, such as nuclear war, extreme drought, etc. Looking to discuss what drew them to the work, how their work has been impacted by recent political, environmental, social events (and the Covid-19 pandemic), and how they think their research csn help us enact change.  In your email, please share a few lines about the nature of the work and how they came into it."  Maggie Puniewska.

Extremes

"For an upcoming story I am looking to speak with researchers who work on computer models of "apocalyptic" or extreme situations, such as nuclear war, extreme drought, etc."  My empire and climate theories are really based on the economic and temperature changes brought about by military spending and global evaporation patterns.  Military spending increases divert research and capital resources away from manufacturing production, which clearly shows up in the manufacturing jobs loss statistics.  Land warms up three times as fast as oceans thanks to the lower water availability over land triggering an energy imbalance that takes 27 years to warm up and 27 years to cool off in the 54-year world cycle.  This global temperature cycle drives a similar economic cycle and war politics cycle.  I have charted 56 major headline grabbing cyclic world events including peaks and valleys of temperature, economics, social movements, wars, pandemics, hurricanes, volcanoes, blizzards, droughts, floods, and severe winters among other extreme events.

Impacts

"How their work has been impacted by recent political, environmental, social events (and the Covid-19 pandemic)."  This has only accelerated my work with many current examples of the long-term patterns I evaluate.  The 2020 pandemic mimics the 1968 Hong Kong flu and 1918 Spanish flu in the last two cycles, 52 and 50 years apart. Black Lives Matter 2020 ushers in the return of the civil rights movement 55 years after Selma.  Empire theory documents the long-term impact of excessive military spending, depleting the economic and defense strength of the country, and contributing to political stagnation and oligarchy, income inequality, crime and prisoners, increasing anxiety, and poor health statistics such as, obesity, mental illness, teen births and infant mortality, drug use and gambling diversions.

Enacting Change with Science

"How they think their research can help us enact change."  Right now people see military facilities and factories providing jobs, but do not see the simultaneous reduction in manufacturing jobs as directly linked.  When the continuing proofs and perfect fit models I offer convince the leaders and public of the new scientific paradigm, world leaders will be motivated to cut military spending in the short run to boost it in the long run as a smaller percentage but faster growing part of a faster doubling economy.  Real national strength comes from the size of the economy.  Current global warming models are all defective, not including the zig zag pattern of the warming confirmed by the perfectly fitting 55 year moving average of the 170-year world temperature record.  They incorrectly assume that there are too many factors out there to produce a simple elegant model like mine.  Like the economists, they falsely assume micro analysis leads to macro analysis.  I find in these two areas that the best macro models are possible with two major factors like military spending and evaporation leading into one precise finding after another.

Drawn to Work

"Looking to discuss what drew them to the work."  Working at the State of Oregon Legislature as an intern I picked up a brochure at a Fellowship of Reconciliation meeting at the famous Dorothy Patch's house in Salem Oregon.  A chart in that brochure showed that nineteen years of G7 experience clearly shows that manufacturing productivity is

inversely related to military spending as a percent of each nation's economy.  Testing that statistical relationship lead directly to Peace Economics and later the Real Economy Institute as I went from peace politician to Peace Economics (1986) researcher and publisher.

Nature of the Work

"Nature of the work and how they came into it."  The nature of the work was in keeping with my engineering and accounting degrees, applied to the political economy environment.  The work resembled my wargamer years writing and designing wargames like CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite's favorite game "Battle of the Bulge".  That lead to my only direct game with later "Dungeon and Dragons" inventor Gary Gygax.  I clobbered Gary in a classic counterattack as my Americans defeated Gary's Germans in the classic World War II battle in December 1944.  Decades of experience with all kinds of board games prepared me for conflict simulation game design work.

Conclusion

The current situation is fraught with the increasing tensions of empire and climate as we approach the climatic years of 2024 and 2025 shown to be the average and frequency peaks respectively of the major war and coldest year of the upcoming decade. After 2025 global warming will dramatically accelerate for the next 27 years up to 2052.  Trump is a manifestation of decades of the deepening condition of empire in America according to the Reuschlein models.  The only way out of this forty-year middle class squeeze play by the rich is too reverse the military empire America is caught up in.

Killing Democracy Update

The April 30, 2020, press release "Killing Democracy by Trump" has become the most viewed release in six years, about four or five times bigger than the average of the 242 releases with 250,000 views so far.  The latest outrage is the deliberate sabotage of the mail by a Trump big donor installed to run the post office without any relevant experience.  Sabotage of the postal service mentioned in the constitution by Trump associates just to try and stop voting by mail, like Mitch McConnell trying to bankrupt the states by blocking pandemic relief funding, seem to be acts of domestic terrorism.  One wonders if other rent and mortgage moratorium relief is stalled until millions have been evicted and deprived of their vote by re-registration requirements and deadlines.  After the failed impeachment, the boldness of strongman wannabee Trump seems to have little bounds.  We live in dangerous times, with the Trump cult pushing fascist tendencies to the limit.  Even local US Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Chuck Grassley of Iowa are channeling Russian disinformation to other Senators running for re-election, despite Russian election aid being illegal. 

Empire and Climate Economics Forecasting:

https://www.academia.edu/32759407/EMPIRE_and_CLIMATE_Economics_ppt_29_slide_5_p_2017

Please cite this work as follows:  Reuschlein, Robert. (2020, August 15), "Extreme Situation Forecast" Madison, WI, Real Economy Institute.  Retrieved from:  https://www.expertclick.com/NewsRelease/Extreme-Situation-Forecast,2020234650.aspx

Dr. Peace, Professor Robert Reuschlein, Real Economy Institute, Nobel Peace Prize nominee 2016-2020 with accelerating interest from Norway.  Intense interest in an unusually consistent pattern shows up on my website as following my work, hard looks per year went from 2 to 3 to 48 to 128 to 213 (projected).

Contact: bobreuschlein@gmail.com  Info: www.realeconomy.com

News Media Interview Contact
Name: Dr. Robert W. Reuschlein
Title: Economics Professor
Group: Real Economy Institute
Dateline: Madison, WI United States
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