INTRODUCTION

We know everything about micro weather events and nothing about the Earth Cycle of 54 years underlying those climate events, economic long term trends and events, and major war outbreaks.  We know so much about geological time scale events and why variations in earth orbit or tilt generate ice ages every 10,000 or 40,000 or 100,000 years, but remain ignorant about the land ocean inter-reaction caused by evaporation differences and triggered by periodic solar radiation pulses over a 54 year cycle.  Short term cycles like the two and a half year cycle or less are studied and long term cycles of thousands or millions of years leave this area in between hardly covered at all.  Yet there is an abundance of information out there, hindered by prejudice and ignorance and stereotypes such as "flat earth" style conventional economics denying the Kondratiev cycle and or considering it only applies to economics.  Yet the natural cycle (weather), the economic cycle (wealth), and the political cycle (wars) are directly and logically connected as I have seen it since my May 7, 1991 paper "Natural Global Warming" and the more recent summaries in the "Climate War Cycle" presentations of the last two years of refinements.

For original paper:

https://www.academia.edu/4485559/NATURAL_GLOBAL_WARMING_CYCLE_10_p._1991

NATURAL EARTH CYCLE MATTERS

The Earth Cycle, as I choose to call it, matters greatly and continues to predict events even with all the changes from the greenhouse effect.  The greenhouse effect changes the underlying warming trend but the Earth Cycle still prevails in the timing of new extreme events, which are area specific and time specific in nature.  Hurricane Sandy still comes 52 years after the last time the battery in Southern Manhattan was flooded, right on schedule.  The only evidence of change is the major drought of 2012 coming 24 years after the major drought of 1988.  But even that "hurry up" occurs on the half cycle and is followed with the 2013 near major flood on the Mississippi just twenty years after the 1993 flood on the outskirts of St. Louis.  But the bigger flood is probably still to come much closer to the 27 year half cycle mark, probably around 2020.  The cycle in wars is only slightly hurried up with Iraq in 2003 a little early for the 2006 expected date, but the Suez war of 1956 is almost exactly matched with the 55 years later Egyptian leader Mubarak deposed in 2011.  When Ukrainian leader Khrushchev took the Crimea from Russia and added it to Ukraine, no one thought much about it because it was all part of the Soviet Union then.  Now, 60 years later Russia takes it back in a bloodless move and the US is all outraged.  What about the $5 billion dollar "democracy" campaign by the CIA that deposed a pro-Russian Ukrainian president.  That $5 billion was the whole cost of the presidential and congressional elections in the US in 2008.  How is that not "meddling" in another nation's internal affairs? 

Back to the weather cycle, it is pretty regular, but very location specific.  Each major city and state should check the historical record and anticipate similar events about 54 years later, usually same location, and the same month.  Usually the same year plus 54, but often a year or two off, some times several years off.  Multi year averaged turning points are most accurate, then major droughts, floods, blizzards, El Nino's, and volcanoes.  Least accurate and most random are the earthquakes.

For more on the weather cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/6002772/WEATHER_CYCLE_5_p._from_WWW_1997_2014

ECONOMIC CYCLE  MATTERS

The US and some other leading countries such as Germany are very regular in their long cycle of 54 years.  Globalization is taking things to a new level, the worldwide level, lately.  The smoothness of the cycle is not in touch with the 2008 world recession started in the United States.  The problem is the lack of political oversight by the ideological but incompetent Bush regime.  Still, the cycle says the next peak in interest rates and inflation should be about 2036 with probably a much worse depression like event at that time.  Interest rates will steadily go up between now and then, with the usual give and take of markets.  Betting against this trend would be very foolish.

For more on the economic connection to the earth cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/4862993/CLIMATE_EFFECTS_ECONOMY_5_p._1999

POLITICAL CYCLE MATTERS

The war cycle has two components, the economic one is very regular, and the temperature one is even more regular.  Economic disparities among nations are sharpest at the end of the 27 year growth cycle (1994 to 2021).  The wealth accumulation cycle peaks at the end of this cycle (2021) so wars as a method of separating number one from number two tend to break out about three years after (2024 average, 2025 most frequent specific year historically.)  But the actual trigger year has an amazing coincidence with the coldest year of a period, usually as part of a two or three year cooling burst.  But in 1968, turmoil worldwide did not directly tie into wars (or did it? Tet Offensive in Vietnam 1968, Sino Soviet border clashes in 1969) so much as world wide tensions, as the Northern Hemisphere hot streak ended in 1968 and the Southern Hemisphere hot streak began in 1969.  Tensions manifested in riots in America and France, and the 1966 cultural revolution in China.  The 2020's could go either way, with tensions as the next global warming spurt starts in earnest, or hegemonic or lesser wars involving the top economies in the world, probably some combination of America, China, and maybe Japan or all three as happened in the world wars.

One intriguing aspect of the war cycle:

https://www.academia.edu/5479721/WARS_Coldest_Year_Weather_Wealth_and_Wars_2p._1999

SUMMARY

The zealots on one side and the deniers on the other both confuse the complexity of global warming.  My own evaporation based Earth Cycle expects the last 1973 to 1998 heating cycle to continue to consolidate as an ocean holds the land back from further heating until about 2025.  The temperature gap between the ocean and land is huge right now, preventing much in the way of global warming until that gap is reduced greatly at the end of one decade from now.  This tends to leave the cycle in a choppy phase, so weather will be greatly erratic for the next decade, much like the last decade.

See third way presentation about the land ocean conflict, given at recent conferences in Nashville and Madison: https://www.academia.edu/7146962/THIRD_WAY_Global_Warming_20ppt_2014

The linkages from planetary weather cycle to economic cycle to war cycle are covered in my power point presentation below and this video:  http://vimeo.com/54044778

Comprehensive modern power point, 18 slides:

https://www.academia.edu/4044447/CLIMATE_WAR_CYCLE 18ppt.3p._2013

Events of the 54 Year Cycle of all kinds, 56 examples:

https://www.academia.edu/4101856/EVENTS_Weather_Economy_War_56List_54_year_Cycle